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Notes -
What are people's stock picks looking like these days? I made a mint on Twist Bioscience recently off a twitter tip, but I rotated out already after it rocketed. Wishing I went in with more volume, but it wasn't my conviction, so I went pretty light. Other than that, my individual picks are mostly the usual that have served me well, MSFT, Nvidia, Amazon. I tend to keep about 20% of my funds as 'money where your mouth is' money, but I kinda just struggle to see opportunities better than holding more Nvidia atm. I did grab some SK Hynix after the korean market vomited up its leverage, but I'm already eyeing selling out of that for a small profit, I worry the industry is gonna overbuild in a big way in a 2-3 year timeframe (Plus china). Also recently (Well, 6 months ago) exited my costco position, which was kinda a dual retail thesis, I felt future shopping would trend in either amazon or costco-esque directions. But it's just too expensive for me atm relative to growth potential, even after the dip. Keeping an eye on it to buy more if it falls further though.
I feel there definitely are opportunities in bio/pharma, I'm just not keyed in enough to find them reliably. Most of my wins there have been gleaned from listening to people in the field.
Anyway, thoughts? Anyone got a pick they're pondering?
Ones I recently bought with small allocations:
$CRON – Canadian weed stock. Sector is bombed out. They are profitable. Most of the market cap is in cash. Growing.
$KSPI – Kazakhstani super app
$STNE / $PAGS – South American payment rails. Super cheap.
My top holding:
$SBLK – Bulk shipping. There is likely to be a shortage of bulk shippers over next 5-10 years because there are no ships on the order book and older ships will have to be scrapped. Will make probably earn $5/share per year over next several years. Stock price is $31. Pays out almost all profits as dividends. New iron ore mine in Guinea will be a tailwind as ships have to sail longer from Guinea-to China then Australia to China.
Risky/speculative:
$CHTR. Leveraged play in cable. Bombed out beyond all belief. Trades at a PE of 3.5 but has a ton of debt so EV/EBIDTA closer to 5. Debt is like 4 times market cap so could be in trouble in a couple years if earnings fall and interest rates are higher than now. Cash flow projected to increase by a lot as they pay back debt and have lower capex needs. If so, stock could triple. Risk of bankruptcy is non-zero.
An X user I respect recommends $SNAP with the thesis that all you need for a 5 bagger is them to stop having absolute dogshit management.
Weed firms I am getting vibes are cheap. That never felt like a good business to me with little moat and not much branding. But vibes I’m getting is it’s cheaper to buy say a weed farm in public markets today than it would be to build my own equivalent weed farm. So they probably work. I never got the bubble in weed stocks because I always thought it a no moat type business.
Also like snap. Not sure if I can see 5x as I think the research reports saying that assume monetization at closer to meta levels but most users are teenagers with less disposable income than metas adult users. Actually surprised that company still exists because I know no one that uses it but the revenue is real and cheapish especially if the ran it to maximize profits instead of growth.
Exited Snap a while above 6. I don’t have conviction on anything right now. But have been buying Snap 5.2-5.5 and selling 5.6-5.8 because it does have decent vol. somehow I messed up an order and got short 2k shares at 5.75 which scares me a little and thought about just taking a small loss on it.
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