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birb_cromble  6d ago (text post)   429 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 10/3/2026

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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A couple weeks ago there was some discussion about SpaceX stock in the main thread. Starship 14 had just reached orbit and the stock hadn't budged at all.

I saw news today that Elon is a trillionaire so I looked at my position again. It's at ~$170 now, I'm up 20% in a month. I wish I'd put more in, and I'm putting more in even at the higher price. I regret not buying two-three months ago when it was trading closer to $100. I hesitate to commit an epistemological sin, but this was one of the easiest buys of my life and I think it remains an easy buy.

Often wrong but I recently shorted here and I am a huge Musks fanboy. Three things to remember:

  1. A firm like this doesn’t have earning support right now. It’s all vibes on Musks being a winner. So it should be volatile.

  2. Lock-ups expire on the stock faster when the price is above IPO by certain %. Those are happening now. Some of them will hold. Some of them will sell.

  3. As the float increases index funds increase their position size. Some of those index funds have had forced buying lately. When that’s not the current marginal buyer in the stock it decreases upward price pressure. For this timeline it’s something like: Lock up expires Certain amount of days go by Index funds have to buy more

It’s all vibes on Musks being a winner.

Well, it's vibes on future earnings. Lots of folks think those would look better if Musk decided to quit and put Shotwell in charge.

So it should be volatile.

Strongly agreed. I'm kind of a huge SpaceX fan, but I'm only invested in them a little bit, indirectly, via things like index funds and Alphabet. Their market cap really does seem to be taking the possibility of an enormous upside into account; it's a fair gamble, but either buying or shorting it is still a big gamble.

this was one of the easiest buys of my life

On the other hand, I'm getting older and I worry about kids' college tuitions and my own retirement; your definition of "big gamble" may vary. I thought I was being super responsible by ignoring the impulse to dump all my liquid life savings into "one of the easiest buys of my life" in early 2023, keeping 95% in index funds and at least slightly less-risky investments, even though it seemed really likely that NVDA was about to double. Well, it didn't exactly "double"...

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