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birb_cromble  2hr ago (text post)   48 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-10-10

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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There is a serious potential I only have to work for 3.5 more years and can retire in my mid 40's.

The equity I was granted at my new job has already doubled in value. It vests over 4 years (3.5 years to go), but even it's value now is enough to push me over into never have to work again territory. The rest of my portfolio, after a very choppy beginning of the year, finally appreciated by my take home pay at my last job.

My work life balance is shit, especially with the newborn, but if I retire when he's 5, that's tons of time to spend with him while I do shit I want to do, like make video games in 6502 assembly.

I just have to hope when the other team comes into power, as they always do, they don't decide to virus bomb my office building for having done suspiciously well under the last administration.

I'm in a similar place - mid 40s, could theoretically retire today at my current lifestyle. The thing is, I actually like my job, and I'm not yet projecting a success rate where I actually feel comfortable making the plunge. Right now my plan is to keep working, and have "retire" in my back pocket in case I'm ever laid off.

It appears that the US bond market is not the only one having problems right now.

The French/German 10-year bond yield gap last week saw its biggest weekly jump in decades, while the gap between Italian and German yields hit almost 130 basis points (bps), posting its biggest weekly rise since the COVID-19 crisis.

I'll admit that my understanding of European economics are somewhat fuzzy. My mental model is that Germany pretty much is the EU economy, but as an American I'm pretty sure that's a function of my own biases.

Does anyone have any insight into what's going on here? Based on the article, the issue doesn't seem to be unique to France - it mentions elevated yields in Italy as well.

Compare the situations in France and the US and you realize France is completely screwed. There will almost certainly be another Euro monetary crisis in the next couple years.

  1. US debt to GDP 122%. France 116%.

  2. US 10 year real GDP growth: 2.45%. France: 1.22%

  3. US average age: 39.1. France: 41.6

  4. US controls own currency. France: No

  5. US total taxes to GDP: 25.6%. France: 43.5%

  6. US gov. spending to GDP: 39.7%. France: 57.2%.

France can't raise taxes to get out of the problem since doing so will cause capital flight and negative GDP growth. They already tax Nicolas, 30 ans, as much as he can bear. Incredibly, pensioners in France now earn more than people who are working. And yet French people are on the streets protesting against "austerity" and "neoliberalism".

Le Pen won't save France either. She wants to lower the retirement age.

I'll also just mention that, in 2021, it was estimated that about 15% of people under 18 are Muslim. Imagine what this number is now.

Absolutely screwed. Complete economic, demographic, and aura collapse.

Maybe AGI will save them somehow.

Other than the currency thing, it looks like the US is on a comparable track. Are we getting a preview of what could happen here?

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