This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:
Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says
The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket
Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:
Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal
Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.
From Nate Silver:
If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.
You've been sounding like a broken record repeating this talking point over and over. Trump got impeached twice and started a laughably incompetent coup, and he's still here. Surely this time he's going down.
Trump's influence will likely wane quickly after his term is over, as he's old as af and doesn't have any prospect of running for any other office. But you'd better get used to him being in the house because you have another 2 years of it.
Trump will remain the most powerful politician in America likely until the day he dies. You don’t literally need to be the one whose signature goes on an Executive Order to be the person where power resides. George Martin got this right. Joffrey sat on the thrown but the true power was Tywin. Whether it’s Little Rubio or Vance there power will be dwarfed by Trump and if it’s a Dem all eyes will still be on Trump though he will be less powerful in that scenario.
Why else would Dems still be talking about prosecuting Trump if his political power disappears when he’s not in the WH?
Is that going to matter? Trump cares primarily about himself, and maybe to an extent his family members. Does he give a shit about his various hangers-on, the Republican party, or even the US in general?
I would be very surprised if he even bothered to offer support for a Vance campaign, let alone anyone else. Maybe if it came with some form of bribe, but candidates can't offer much until they're elected. Perhaps one of his sons running would bring him out, but Trump loyalty wouldn't be enough to prevent them getting destroyed.
And that's putting aside the question of his increasing senility.
Trump took a bullet for this country. If he only cared about himself he would have enjoyed retirement at the top of his field with billions of dollars in his bank account.
This seems like the easiest bet in the world. Trump campaigns for other people all the time. He is obviously going to support Vance, even if you believe in a selfish Trump, Vance is trivially his legacy, Vance is in Trump’s best interests.
He has made more billions as a maximally corrupt second-term President than he did as a failed real estate developer or a successful reality TV star.
Up until 2024 it was an extremely negative investment. It was just as likely that Trump was going to go to jail. He used to say during rallies and debates that he could have stayed at home and not run for office, it’s what all his rich friends were doing. And that we need those powerful people to serve the country and they don’t want to because the political fallout is too great.
I don’t think a self-interested Trump theory hangs together. Especially after his 2012 foray into presidential politics it was obvious that running for office would vastly complicate Trump’s life. He did it, like him or not, out of a sense that he had a duty to run. And going through his interviews and statements since the 80s it’s clear he’d been thinking about it for a long, long time.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
maybe he took a bullet because he also saw an opportunity to profit more by being president? These are not necesailty mutually exclusive.
More options
Context Copy link
Being in the public spotlight for Trump is like alcohol to me. He’s addicted to it. So in his self-interest he could never retire because he would hate that life.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link