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Notes -
Coffee, people pointed out before how totally insane your take of: "Russians are actually based and trad" is, but I guess it's my turn, again:
You remember that Moscow has an official Muslim population in the 1-2 million range, comparable with Paris, and rising, plus many more unofficial migrants push it much higher. Relations are not great, with many past terrorist attacks. You might say the same about the west, but this is the same story, not a solution by the Russians.
Russia's elite is wildly corrupt, stealing from its own population rampantly in a way that would make Alex Jones' theories of elite misbehavior look tame. Their model has kept Ukraine and Belarus edit poor versus their more west leaning compatriots, and only oil revenues sustain them - they have no economic theory or model for flourishing worth exporting, and everyone knows it. Ukrainians knew this well before Maidan, but that is what pushed them over the edge, they aspire to be Poland or the Baltics, not a vassal of a shitty larp of a rotting pretend trad state.
Don't let yourself be ruled over those who hate you is the best red tribe advice I've read on here, and it cut to my heart. The Ukrainians know it, I'm confused how you miss it? They seem pretty based to me.
We also have many war crime incidents in the war, both by and inflicted onto Russians - who immediately upon entering Ukraine killed civilians and looted almost at random. Remember, this while they were told Ukrainians would fold, welcome them and it would be over in weeks - why can't you see these people are not in any way people you want near your family or those you love, and I would pay serious blood and treasure to keep that it way?
Once again (as you did not reply before), possibly the incident most be interested in was the Russian soldier raped by Kadyrov's troops who are used as barrier troops and left to run rampant over their Christian charges, who then hung himself. Not sure if you read Russian, but a rough translation is: "Goodbye. love, in the time that I am here I have seen hell. There were not so many deaths in Chechnya or even Afganistan. seas of human meat. but that is not why i depart. We here, Russian people, are nobody, and Chechens rule. They drink, are lawless and rape, they despise everyone and no ones doing anything about it. Kitty, they took all the money you sent and they did a thing to me. This is to let you know that I resisted. Remember that you and me owe nothing to anyone. This is the only way out. See you after death". That's your positive influence for resisting Muslim influence?
I'd point out here as well that Russian society does not normalize/enforce white/native ethnomasochism and also does not capitulate to every demand of the Israel lobby. This is a rather palpable difference from the West, isn't it? It also appears to me that Western European elites like to extensively talk about the merits of the ideal that is multiculturalism while not showing any aptitude or willingness to actually practise it whereas Russians claim to renounce the Western ideal of multiculturalism while practising de facto multiculturalism everyday.
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The numbers I’m finding are that Moscow is 3% Muslim. Eg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Russia ; https://social.hse.ru/socialogia/duxovenstvo
The one currently on fire, as I write this reply to you, because Muslims are setting a handful of beautiful buildings on fire? I mean, to be fair to the “ummah”, I don’t think a Kazakh or Uzbek is going to set anything on fire even though they’re Muslim, which is where Russia’s migrants come from. But France seems to have a terrible batch and the neo-European neo-“value” of letting them riot is not-based and not-trad. It’s very anti-European and demoralizing. Its very unaesthetic As is what Spain is doing with their migrant “regularization”, saying this as someone with blood from Spain and not the Slavs.
This is no longer a tenable objection given Trump the past couple years, Germany’s spy chief being arrested…
Nothing approaching the horror of bombing 100 schoolchildren or morally-defending the starvation of 1,000,000 children by a Eurovision contestant. And I remain skeptical of Bucha because a militant Neo-Nazi batallion decked out in swastikas is probably not the most trustworthy org in the world, yet it’s where Ukraine sources some of their top officials from.
Meduza says that was fabricated, do you have a better source?
Coffee, I really like some of your writing, which is why I write all this and why your denial of Bucha is so strange, it makes me question everything else you say, and so it’s worth focusing on.
The timeline makes the Ukrainian-perpetrator theory physically impossible. Russia’s Defense Ministry of course claimed the bodies had been placed on the streets after Russian units fully withdrew from Bucha around March 30, but commercial satellite imagery shows otherwise. In addition, a video filmed by a local council member on April 1 shows multiple bodies along Yablonska Street, and Maxar imagery shows at least 11 of them had been there since March 11, when Russia, by its own account, occupied the town. Many bodies in the satellite images also sit in the exact positions seen in the street-level footage, it literally cannot be faked. We also have signal intercepts, identified Russians, eye witness accounts that match the above, and Ukraine flew in independent forensics teams to avoid exactly this denial, but that’s just flogging a dead horse.
Russian soldiers raped mothers in front of their kids and killed them, shot people in the street and hung them from lampposts, and all without much caring to hide it. The fact that you persist in believing Ukraine somehow did it instead suggests that either your priors are to accept whatever Russia says, no matter how incredible, or that you wish others to. That may seem uncharitable, but it is the only conclusion I am left with given the strength of the evidence.
However, on your other points quickly:
The evidence we have is a Russian telegram chat from a soldier group, a photo of a dead body, and a note saying all of the above. I do not see any Meduza debunking, maybe they have more information but it seems hard to know what other evidence could surface other than the above. It seems perfectly believable given the endemic rape in the Russian military (as we discussed before), the use of Chechens as barrier troops and to cow their Christian charges, and the hatred Chechens have of Russians, but I guess your priors vary.
I am not sure what this refers to? I see Russia claimed there was a single strike that killed 21 schoolchildren in Luhansk, without the evidence like names, interviews etc that Ukraine provides for similar cases (but its possible) while Ukraine claimed it hit a school building being used for training by the Rubicon drone unit. I see no claims of 100 schoolgirls? This may actually have killed schoolchildren and been a mistaken target. Russia by contrast has definitely killed at least 760+ confirmed Ukrainian schoolchildren, and raped, kidnapped and abused many more. So, again, nothing Ukraine has done this war comes close to approaching the horror of common Russian actions, the worst case is well below a Tuesday for them, your point is perfectly inverted and really weird.
Zelensky supporting the UPA was retarded, and he's not a great politician in some regards, agree with you there. However, those deaths don't carry forwards from the 40s to invalidate Ukraine fighting Russia today.
In terms of Muslims in Moscow, your own sources say the lower bound is 300,000, but that has to be an underestimate as it's a 2010 figure of only permanent residency. The real number probably exceeds 2 million using your own source there, but also ones like this. Paris is burning, Russia had many terrorist attacks (including in 2024), and I would be surprised if the base rate of attacks in Moscow is lower than in similar cities with similar muslim populations, it's more of the same rather than Russia finding some solution.
Let’s consider it super carefully, starting with a few steps back.
Atrocity propaganda is used by every country, in every conflict, since at least the 1800s. Atrocity propaganda is omnipresent even in the culture war. There is atrocity propaganda about racial violence in America, about residential schools in Canada, about antisemitic incidents, about gender relations. Benjamin Franklin used atrocity propaganda against the British, we used it with the Nayirah testimony in the Gulf War, there was an entire tome published in the 1920s detailing the 20+ atrocity hoaxes employed by the Allies in WW1. I believe Trump has recently said that the IRGC killed 70,000 of their own citizens (lol). In every conflict, the gullible masses have their reflexive opinion shaped by atrocity propaganda, because they always fall for it, every single time. So, at least outside of Reddit, this should factor into a serious person’s willingness to believe in an atrocity story, especially one occurring in as geopolitically-sensitive a conflict as Ukraine. Another way to put this: every serious power, and even unserious powers, will be employing atrocity propaganda, and so where are Ukraine’s attempts? Each incident has to be nitpicked in an especially nitpicky way because there is a motivated actor who really, really wants to fabricate an atrocity, and it’s his job to do this, and he probably has a higher IQ than us, and in fact it’s not one guy but a team of a dozen spending 60 hours weeks considering how to fabricate an atrocity. The normal assessment and skepticism of evidence simply doesn’t apply in wartime. We should assume he gets a holiday bonus and a free trip to Thailand if his fabrication is a success upon the normie heart. I’m not even against atrocity propaganda itself, I just think believing it is beneath this particular forum; gone are the days I would quibble with the redditor about Michael Brown or whoever (such conversations are worse than hopeless).
The Bucha event was publicized at the height of diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, literally just days after the March 28 Istanbul talks, and the failure of diplomacy was blamed on Bucha. “Bucha” bears phonetic similarity to a relevant viscerally negative-valence word, which makes it highly fitting for an atrocity propaganda campaign. There are few phonetic connotations more apt to associate with your event than “butcher” (he definitely earned that Thailand vacation). These two points should slightly raise your suspicions, because the paid team of motivated actors looking to establish a false atrocity are going to pounce on these opportunities. It’s literally the perfect time a place to stage something. Like, were you to plug all the information into some AtrocityPropagandaAI, it would likely choose Bucha out of all eligible options to stage something.
The town had many Azov members deployed, and in fact, some of the “civilians” Ukraine claims were killed in Bucha were Azov soldiers! Now, that Ukraine lies shouldn’t be surprising, and it doesn’t disprove that a real atrocity occurred. But we have to remember what Azov is. It’s a group that has many convictions for killing civilians: 1, 2, 3. We have cases of the SBU + Azov threatening and killing civilians in UN reports (Volodymyr Lobach). There are cases reported by the UN of Azov raping the mentally handicapped. From the testimony of Marianna Vyshemirskaya we know that Azov has used active hospitals as cover. This is not a good group, and it’s the group that (1) was in Bucha, (2) died in Bucha, (3) is highly influential in the upper strata of the Ukrainian military. This is who you trust? Why?
Out of the 150 streets in Bucha, the central claim involves a satellite image of Yablonska Street, one of the two streets with the heaviest fighting between Azov / Ukrainian forces and Russians. Ukrainians have been known to place their soldiers in domestic houses with civilians in adjacent dwellings
You believe a neonazi battalion with a long track record of killing civilians and putting other civilians in harm’s way. But it would be a trivial challenge for them to stage this event. A satellite image can be altered or its date misapplied, but even more importantly, civilians placed on the street is what you would expect if Russian forces were fighting Azov hiding in homes with civilians in it. (If these buildings were your base, you would not keep a dead civilian beside you for a week, you would place the deceased away from the building, ie the street). Something like 2,000 settlements were taken by Russians and subsequently recaptured and the supposed evidence of atrocities is less than the evidence of Azov atrocities. In the era of smartphones!
Wikipedia says 3% in Moscow (see the table entry for Moscow), and my other link says 3% from a rigorous June 2026 poll. Do you have better evidence?
See Meduza: https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/09/28/newly-surfaced-document-alleges-that-chechen-soldiers-raped-conscripts-from-dnr
History teaches us that such atrocities usually occur immediately after a place is taken after heavy fighting in a combat situation that is altogether hectic and fluid. It makes sense to assume that the Ukrainian units that retook the town immediately killed a bunch of civilians they considered to be traitors, collaborators, looters etc.
Apparently one of the deceased in Bucha was Oleksandr Rzhavskyy, an important pro-Russian politician who served in Ukraine’s parliament, and Russia may have recordings where he mentions to Russian troops the possibility that he will be brutalized by Ukrainians when Ukrainians retake the town. The Ukrainian position on his death is that he was shot by Russian troops for not paying a ransom (?????), which is the sort of plotline I’d write if worked at Activision.
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Coffee, I come back to this, because you are absolutely better than this. As I see your points, and please do others jump in if I have lacked charity or understanding:
I do not believe Azov, who are not load bearing to any of this. I believe the evidence provided in my reply to you, primarily the satellite footage released days in advance of Ukraine retaking Bucha and can date the executions to post any early fighting, and also matches footage taken prior to the retaking of the city and exactly matches the patterns of bodies found once it was retaken. That's a hilariously high bar of evidence, and if it was the other way around for Azov you would correctly be calling it out, and you have claimed events prior on far far shakier evidence. Russian soldiers ran rampant over civilians they had power over, none of which is built upon needing to believe a single word of Azov.
Why do you even like the Russians here? Why can't Bucha be a terrible failure and a mistake by units gone rogue for you?
Anyway, on our other notes:
Your Meduza link shows that there are other allegations versus mine that Chechens raped, DNR soldiers this time, but that neither of them have been disproven? Are you agreeing with me?
And your source that 3% of the respondents were muslim, in line with the lower bound i mentioned, but that 65% of residents express that religion is important and 36% of them Islam is the most important? In a city of like 13 million? Do you see a slight pickle even in the narrow survey that the massive irregular population is not going to be well covered by? That there may be quite a few Muslims in Moscow isn't some weird conspiracy, who do you think is launching all the terrorist attacks?
My first point is larger than that: atrocity propaganda is the norm in modern psyops. We should expect a lot of atrocity propaganda coming from both sides. It would be improbable for a modern war to occur without atrocity propaganda. Which again, I’m not mad about, but for a question like “is Russia a threat to Europe”, this should be treated seriously (at least here), not by reciting events that may be propaganda planted by three letter agencies and highly motivated neonazis battalions.
Did you read that Russian MFA report? What part of it do you dispute or consider erroneous? You should address the specific evidence presented by the official government of the nation you’re accusing of an atrocity. It was published last month, not days afterward. Ukraine claims that those particular men were civilians. Ukraine etched their names upon a memorial. Russia provided evidence that they were members of an armed extremist neonazi battalion with a long history of killing civilians, an outfit condemned by the UN and who traffics in extremist literature. Who do we believe? Ukraine or Russia? Neither? Thank you for reminding me of Bucha by the way; had you not mentioned if I would have never found this report.
Azov is the armed and extremist neonazi brigade from which Ukraine sources some of their key positions. They are highly influential in Ukraine. Some of the highest-ranked Ukrainian military personnel are former members of this neonazi battalion. Russia claims that Azov, this batallion decking themselves in swastikas, was in Bucha. This is very problematic if true. They attach photos of the men in uniforms, name them, and name the specific unit of Azov they were affiliated with. How can we determine who is telling the truth? If Azov was in Bucha, then no sane person should believe what is claimed about Bucha, given the long history of Azov’s crimes against civilians and extremist leanings.
You know, I think when the typical European thinks “threat to Europe”, they imagine Nazis. Doesn’t it seem like Ukraine is a threat to Europe, if they have neo-Nazis praising Hitler going wild with weapons? The commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps of the Ukrainian Ground Forces has published screeds like “Ukrainian Racial Social-Nationalism in the Ideology of Patriot of Ukraine”. I’m starting to really question your motivations here, because your name (the golem) has a long history of being used by Nazis, and here you are defending a neonazi outfit. If you don’t mind answering a few questions about this:
Do you deny that Azov is a neo-Nazi brigade with a long history of crimes against civilians?
Do you deny that the Ukrainians select former Azov members for important positions in Ukraine? Biletsky as I mentioned, but also Serhii Velichko and Kostiantyn Nemichev, members of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine.
Why should I trust a nation that permits, and selects for important promotions, members of an extremist neonazi brigade?
Okay, but follow this line of argument: (1) if Azov were in the homes, they would have used those homes as defense while civilians were nearby or in those homes; (2) Azov themselves may have killed civilians, as they have before; (3a) the placement of the deceased on a street are what we would expect if Russians made a base out of homes where civilians were killed by crossfire or Azov, because you don’t live next to a dead person for a week, you’d drag them away from you; (3b) it is profoundly improbable that all 2500 Russians in Bucha saw nothing wrong with leaving the civilians they supposedly killed in the middle of a street, especially when they had two weeks of little fighting. Not a single one of the 2500 soldiers in Bucha thought “hey, let’s hide this civilians we just killed”? (They had full control from March 5 to March 30).
I want Ukraine to stop self-harming themselves, and I want Europe to stop needless brother wars. You can focus on inter-nicene squabbles after you’ve kicked out the last Salafi and minimized the global threat posed by China. Otherwise it’s just ridiculous.
If they fabricated a letter, why should I believe the other allegations?
I don’t see a source for 36% say Islam is the most important.
In a city or 13 million there are 12 to 24 mosques
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I don't think Russia is a trad state paragon, but as far as I can tell on a quick Google trip, you're a little confused about this.
In 1995 Belarus and Ukraine had similar GDP per capita (PPP) of around $4000 - in fact, Ukraine's was slightly higher. By 2021, Belarus had completely outstripped Ukraine, rising to about $27k versus nearly $18K.
Meahwhile Russia started off in 1995 with a significant lead at about $18K, down from the 1990's $30K. By 2021 it had risen back to nearly $39K GDP per capita (PPP).
To me, this indicates substantial Ukrainian economic mismanagement compared to Russia and Belarus.
If you have better sources I am all ears.
Hi Shrike -
Possibly a bit clumsy wording by me there. I didn't mean that Belarus and Ukraine are literally at the same level of income, rather that there is a clear bifurcation in the post Soviet states - those who moved into a Western, EU orbit became much more wealthy, those who stayed stuck in a Russian orbit were much poorer, while those like Hungary that went one way then moved towards a Russian type patronage model for a protracted time saw their growth collapse versus neighbors.
Ukraine is poorer than Russia, and Belarus - stuck in the Russian orbit without significant hydrocarbon revenues or Russia's heavy subsidies of Belraus and Ukraine's post Soviet heavy industry had a much harder job adapting than Belarus' agriculture. Plus, all three have a deep oligarch problem, which Ukraine will have to deal with.
My contention is that a future Ukraine in the western system has no reason why it can't achieve something like Poland or the Baltics, and they know it - that was the literal trigger for Maidan. Honestly, they could probably have a higher HDI/GDP per capita than Russia, even without any hydrocarbons, that's what Poland proved as a reference class.
There's actually a lot of really good publications and papers on how Russia's economy functions - I really like those on the rent management system and they were super useful when I did economics over there. I think Gaddy and Ickes are really readable too, but there are others!
This makes more sense!
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