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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   16991 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 2, 2026

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I really don't like making grand pronouncements (I think it's a bit narcissistic) but since I seem to have a reputation on The Motte I think it's only fair to take my licks:

  • Midterms were worse than I thought. I would have guessed 49-53 Senate seats for Dems and 220-230 seats in the House.
  • The collapse is so bad that I think it necessitates some new theories about how American politics works. I.e. I don't think Trump's record right now is worse than Bush in 2006 or Obama in 2010 or Biden in 2022. Voters clearly disagree? Inflation reached 8% in 2022, gas right now is lower adjusted for inflation than it was under Obama.
  • Obviously, Iran is very unpopular. I still accept Trump's judgment that it was the right thing to do and I still believe that the war is (plainly) a military success. (Call me crazy!)
  • Trump is a fighter and is going to strike back. I think all calls for his impeachment or step down are bad politics and also bad reads of Donald Trump.
  • Texas with Blue governance would be worse value than California or Illinois, because you don't even have the nice beaches and beautiful cities. But predictions that Texas is about to precipitously decline are overblown. (Texas has a lot of hot smart and beautiful people.)
  • I think the AI buildout will probably not stop, although it will have to reassess. I maintain that AI is so powerful that it's bad for Democrats to hand it over to Republicans even if it polls extremely well in the short and medium-term. I expect that a lot of AI Pause rhetoric will merely grease the wheels for Dems and tech to come to a new arrangement.
  • A lot of my friends who were loyal Trump guys are crashing out now. I do think it's still too soon to call this the death of MAGA, and there is no going back to the old establishment Republican consensus.
  • We're probably closing the window, globally, on a 10-year exuberance of populism and replacing it with something else. To those inclined to gloat, I suspect that whatever comes next will actually be worse for everybody. (For example, imagine a MAGA-Groyper fusion.) (You're going to miss Trump when he's gone.)
  • I think the Groypers might be earning a place in the future.
  • There have been a lot of predictions about Dems undergoing a realignment 10 years after the Republican realignment. I don't think this will happen at all. DSA and center-lib-left Dems will coexist quite peaceably in the way that only political allies that hate each other can.
  • The results were worse than I expected and losing will carry a lot of political consequences. But I maintain that midterms still matter for very little. The powers that Democrats are unlocking for themselves (such as imperiling the future of a Republican SCOTUS) are weak compared to the powers of the president.
  • I do not believe that Democrats are on the cusp of a permanent one-party state or any other despair narratives I see on the right. I don't think this will be true even if they do win in 2028.

Blah blah blah, words words words, excuses excuses, feel free to get your licks in now.

Obviously, Iran is very unpopular. I still accept Trump's judgment that it was the right thing to do and I still believe that the war is (plainly) a military success. (Call me crazy!)

Is it still a military success if Congress defunds the war Vietnam style?

If Republicans had received a "narrowly lose Iowa and Texas" sort of repudiation they might have closed ranks and held Trump's veto but losing Mississippi is enough of a buttblasting to put the fear of God into the hearts of Senators who haven't faced a competitive election in their lives. Even Ted Cruz is calling for an end to the war at this point.

Is it still a military success if Congress defunds the war Vietnam style?

This will be the greatest gift the Democrats can give the Republicans. Giving them a way out of it while owning all the nasty second order effects from stopping the war with not defanged Iran is a blessing some of them pray for.

I won't say it is 5D chess (mostly because it is advanced stupid), but some of the messes Trump has created put Dems into unenviable position because cleanup requires more effort and capital than shitting on something. And they have mandate and power.

Don't regulate AI and bubble pops - you had mandate to regulate it, and you piss off your base.

Regulate AI and bubble pops - you caused recession.

Regulate AI and China wins - congrats USA lost the tech race of 21st century.

Defund Iran war - congrats - you own nuclear armed Iran and their ability to extort the global economy.

Prolong Iran war - the democrats base will be pissed off beyond everything possible (although I will find amusing the mental gymnastics their die hard partisans will make to justify it).

The cost of living will keep rising. AI will cause unemployment, stopping AI will cause unemployment.

People will blame Trump and Republicans for whatever happens next in Iran because he started it so he owns it.

That's not how it works. Obama got lots of flak for staying in Afghanistan and Biden for leaving it. Last person who touched it is to blame. This is not only in IT.

For the purposes of the blame game by voters, people barely even know congress exist as an entity. It's always the president, the top executive, who gets the blame or the credit for better or worse. Your example of Obama and Biden actually a good example of this, individual leaders get blame, not amorphous entities.

Believing otherwise is wishful thinking and not keyed into reality, and will result in a worse electoral result in 2028 if you believe high turnout of low propensity Trump 2024 voters will recoup midterm losses. Specifically, wishful thinking leading to misallocallcation of senate fundraising could give dems a filibuster proof 60 seat majority.

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