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Notes -
Today I will post of the ballot measures. Similar to 2024, there were a lot. What is notable to me is that many states that ended up electing Democrat politicians also ended up voting for many initiatives that I'd consider Republican priorities, including lower taxes and voter ID. This includes four states that limited transgender athletes, transgender bathroom access, and more, those four states being Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, and Washington.
One of my friends in Arizona quickly said that this might be the death of transgenderism as a politically relevant issue. He thought it was likely that the issue would be dropped as an election loser, as something that the people obviously did not want since they voted against it by majority in even what you might consider quite "Blue" states. I said what could be summarized as "I doubt it", maybe along with "you'd be surprised". I think I have been vindicated in saying this, as the Colorado governor is outright saying that he's going to fight these measures that have been passed to the best of his ability, and there are already schemes to nullify those ballot measures. Anecdotally, I see transgender rights commenters saying that the Arizona propositions are illegal even if the people did vote for them.
Most of these culture war issues are not things that can be resolved by simple votes. They can only be resolved through decades-long grueling lawfare. Blues don't take 'no' for an answer, as their responses to Heller and Bruen and now this ballot measure show.
This is why I'm finding it impossible to panic in the wake of the election.
"Voters demonstrated they have a strong preference for X policy" followed very shortly by "Dem politicians declare they will try to do the opposite of X policy."
Congenital inability to learn the lesson or take the actual temperature of the electorate. I was calling this out back before Trump won election the FIRST time. "If you ignore the shouted complaints of the voters to zero in on issues that impact 1-2% of the population, it doesn't matter how popular you THINK you are."
The Dems don't have the outright power to shove everything down people's throats now (except in Cali)... and for the near future SCOTUS is unfavorable to them so going the lawfare route is risky. I do expect them to try to re-open the immigration floodgates.
I don't see how they stay 'mask on' for the next two years.
Somehow I don’t imagine the cost of milk will get cheaper this time around and the cost of living will continue to go up. The political class in D.C. is so unbelievably out of touch with ordinary people it’s hard to imagine. Why don’t you focus on housing affordability, the energy crunch and climate initiatives, general cost of living, taking out a mortgage to go to college, the healthcare system bankrupting people, new cars costing between $40-$70k, giving preferential treatment to illegal immigrants; among other things; rather than fucking with some other country on the other side of the planet to further the foreign policy objectives of some secular, messianic morons who don’t even believe the way we do?
I won't call it a 'prediction' yet... but I expect:
Lots of focus on revenge, punishment, and settling political scores. I don't think these folks have gotten over what happened on January 6, 2021, much less what has happened since then.
Attempts to HYPERCHARGE the social changes they had been trying to implement. Trump has undone almost 16 years of 'progress' thus far, they will try to gain all that back at once, to get back 'on track.'
Desperation to re-establish funding for their various NGOs and pet projects.
Some attempts to shore up their actual control of the states they've picked up.
I don't think they're competent or efficient enough to do all this and chew gum at the same time, so unless a lot of things line up in their favor they're going to be tripping over their own feet for most of those two years.
Honestly dude, I live in a metropolis and grew up in suburbia and I can tell you straight up, the average citizen I know doesn’t care one damn bit about any of the things you just listed. They literally don’t know what an NGO is and couldn’t tell you what January 6th was about. They go to work or school, come home, watch Instagram reels and get on social media, go out clubbing, hang out with friends, etc. The ordinary citizen is pretty politically apathetic and indifferent. You have to make politics felt by people. It’s why a lot of people took note and attention when Trump proposed no taxes on overtime pay. Tariffs on Canada? (Don’t give a fuck.)
All the things you note are taking place among elite actors in a political arena that’s more than half empty.
If democracy was about solving the needs of the people then Baltimore and Detroit and Chicago wouldn't keep electing corrupt political machines.
The politicians do what they do because they are of, for, and by the activist class.
And the activist class would burn the world down to hurt Trump and his proxies. No cost is too high to bear. The enemies must pay.
The problem I have with democracies is some jobs it doesn’t possess the tools or political resources to solve. If you keep electing such people then one of two things is true: either the electorate is stupid, or, you can’t democratically vote your way out of the problem (hence, where democracies expose their flaws). The cardinal rule of politics is that politicians do whatever gets them elected.
Yes, and putting mainstream Republicans in gulags is an issue that polls extremely well with mainstream Democrats. Don't underestimate how much hate that even otherwise good people can hold in their heart.
You're assuming that Democrats will "tackle affordability" or do other impossible things to win an election.
I'm assuming that they will win elections by making a giant straw man and then burning that straw man to death.
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That's my point. The Dems will go all-in on political goals that are orthogonal to those things the electorate wants and cares about. They will thus not be able to make the median voters feel represented effectively.
I don't think there will be much substantive policy made, and as you indicate many things will get worse from an affordability point of view (modulo AI doing some cool stuff). And thus in two years, there will be an even more frustrated electorate that may be heavily regretting their last decision.
The one thing they might actually get around to doing is blatant handouts of one form or another as a means of 'easing' economic struggles.
Handouts are the kind of solutions that buy votes in the short-term but does nothing to solve problems. It’s part of the American art of playing political football. It’s why you see things like officials turning about once they’re out of office and supporting all the things the people are really interested in, now that they’re out of power and don’t have to worry about it. Same reason you find people in the energy markets doing PR stunts to put on a good face to public by “supporting carbon taxes” (because they knew they’d never happen). We don’t fix problems, we paper over them.
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It doesn't matter if the cost of milk doesn't get cheaper two years from now. Blues will use their political power to cement policy wins that Reds will not be able to reverse even if they win subsequent elections. Whatever negative consequences result from Blue political dominance will not be accounted to Blues; it will be blamed on insufficient blueness, or else it will not be recognized to exist.
I’m not disagreeing with you here but from the people I know, politics is revealed at the grocery bill and goes no further than that. Not one single one of them truly give a shit what happens internationally if they can’t pay their mortgage and don’t have enough gas to get to work. All they see is, “Hm. Blue team is in charge. My property tax has gone up, and my phone bill and Internet have increased by 63%. I will vote for the other team next time around.”
People need to tangibly feel the change in their daily lives for them to care. Even one of my acquaintances who is very much a democratic supporter (I think he’s naive but I oblige him; not that Republicans don’t play the same game; they too, can also eat my ass) said, “Shit, I’ll vote for that idiot…” (referring to Trump) “… if he puts a stimulus check in my bank account.”
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You can get a brand new toyota or honda SUV for under that, to say nothing of a sedan.
I’m looking more at the Slate cars to be honest.
Never heard of those, but I can definitely appreciate the concept.
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