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Goodguy  2d ago (text post)   Edited 2d ago   9423 thread views

Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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What are the chances Trump gets impeached now and actually removed from office? Could he go to prison even? He is beyond fucked. Republicans are already turning on him on the timeline.

I think the odds that Trump is gone within a year are around 95%. (And I hope this prediction is as accurate as my election predictions from yesterday.... because the only chance for Republicans to win in 2028 is if they get rid of Trump.)

95%??? What gives you such confidence? Very few presidents have actually been removed from office.

Republicans will be in a far better position to win the next election if they remove Trump from office. If they remove him from office (or more likely, he will resign prior to being convicted), they will lose maybe 1-5% of their base in the next election from the "betrayal", but gain 5-10% which they would otherwise not be able to get if Trump remains President.

And Democrats are on track to have 55-57 Senate seats (I predicted 55 seats would be the most likely outcome, and Murkowski might switch parties), so they will only need 10-12 safe-seat Republican Senators to get on board to remove him from office.

I can guarantee you that there are at least that many Republican Senators that would be delighted to get rid of albatross Trump, especially after what an asshole he's been to so many of them, and their own personal disdain for him.

I also predict that Elon Musk, their biggest donor, along with Thiel and some other big donors, will happily support removing Trump.

So it's a no-brainer that this is going to happen. Trump can even simply resign for "health reasons" or whatever.

And there's historical precedent for Republicans to potentially bounce back. Nixon resigned as soon as enough Republicans were willing to vote to convict, and then his VP only lost the 1976 Presidential election by 1%. It's not a good chance for Republicans in 2028, but at least it's a chance.

The difference is that Gerald Ford was fairly milquetoast presidential material, while JD Vance does not fit the mold at all in appearance and demeanor, and appears to be instinctively loathed by normies to the point that I seriously think Trump may have picked him as a threat to discourage his own removal.

There's also the option of the nominee being someone other than Vance. I should have specified that upfront. I do think the Republicans would have some politically stronger options than Vance.

On the other hand, literally nobody had voted for Ford before 1976. At least a plurality of American voters already voted for Vance once.

Also, Ford had to deal with a bruising primary fight with Reagan, which undermined him in the 1976 race. Vance might not have to deal with that.

I also think Vance would quickly be seen as more popular, once he was no longer just "Trump's VP". Kamala immediately became far more popular once she was the Democrat nominee in 2024, than she was before that as "Biden's VP".

Vance is going to have to deal with DeSantis and maybe Rubio at a minimum.

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