site banner
PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3673 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026

This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.

Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.

We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:

  • Shaming.

  • Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.

  • Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.

  • Recruiting for a cause.

  • Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.

In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:

  • Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.

  • Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.

  • Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.

  • Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.

On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.

4
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Is the Fermi Paradox Debunked?

A new paper is out(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404) concluding that the Drake equation is poorly designed and humans are most likely alone in the universe:

When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty.

When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.

TDLR the Drake equation is wrong by dramatically overrating the probability of other intelligent life. We are more likely to be alone than we thought, and my take on this has been for a while that if life was common we'd have experimentally demonstrated abiogenesis by now. But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues- the great filter is already behind us.

But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues-

I'm sure I'm not the first person to make this argument, but if the Great Filter is ahead of us, we're in deep trouble. It's not a problem that's going to be solved by cutting carbon emissions or pausing AI development for 6 months or implementing a worldwide North Korea style police state. It's something that's wiped out every last one of hundreds, thousands, or even millions of other intelligent species, including species which were well aware that they potentially faced a Great Filter.

Distance. Distance is the great filter. Both K2 and K3 civilizations require new physics. And there is scant reason to believe that there exist one. if we are stuck with the absurdly low speed of causality of 300000km/s the universe may be full to the gills with life and we won't be able to detect it.

Distance. Distance is the great filter. Both K2 and K3 civilizations require new physics. And there is scant reason to believe that there exist one. if we are stuck with the absurdly low speed of causality of 300000km/s the universe may be full to the gills with life and we won't be able to detect it.

Can we agree that in this scenario, we are probably alone in the Milky Way?

Why should we agree on the exact opposite of what I just said? We may have 1000 human level civilization in 10k ly radius and not many ways to detect them.

Why should we agree on the exact opposite of what I just said?

Well, I'm not sure what you meant by "full to the gills" There are about 2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe. If approximately 1 in 100 galaxies have intelligent life, that's 20 billion different species. I had assumed that by "full to the gills," you meant something like that -- lots and lots of species but very few in the same galaxy. My mistake, sorry.

We may have 1000 human level civilization in 10k ly radius and not many ways to detect them.

I would have to disagree with this based on the basic Fermi argument. If intelligent life is sufficiently likely that there are 1000 human level civilizations within 10,000 light years, it's reasonable to be pretty confident that it happened many many times in the past 200 million years that civilizations emerged within 10,000 light years which were capable of sending out Von Neuman probes and/or a colonization wave at speed of c/1000 or more. Which means they had plenty of time to reach our solar system. Thus the question: Where are they?

You are making couple of assumptions here. That Von Neumann probes are possible and easy. That may not be the case. A higher concentration of dust and rocks in the interstellar medium may turn the shielding requirements totally impractical. And that generational ships at c/1000 just accumulate too much damage during the journey.

You are making couple of assumptions here. That Von Neumann probes are possible and easy. That may not be the case.

Of course I agree -- it's possible that there are unanticipated hurdles which are extremely hard to overcome. Still, the current Voyager probes from the 70s are chugging along at c/20,000; AI is improving at an astonishing rate; and with that in mind, Von Neuman probes which can travel at c/1000 seem pretty likely to me.

Even if the maximum speed for an expansion wave is c/10,000 (double the speed of a Voyager probe), if intelligent life were as dense as your scenario assumes, I would be pretty astonished if none of it had made it here.

In any event, you don't really know whether dust and rocks are part of the distance filter you described so it kind of undercuts your argument.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats