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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3200 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026

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Is the Fermi Paradox Debunked?

A new paper is out(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404) concluding that the Drake equation is poorly designed and humans are most likely alone in the universe:

When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty.

When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.

TDLR the Drake equation is wrong by dramatically overrating the probability of other intelligent life. We are more likely to be alone than we thought, and my take on this has been for a while that if life was common we'd have experimentally demonstrated abiogenesis by now. But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues- the great filter is already behind us.

I’ve argued some version of the broader thesis for years here. I think life likely exists elsewhere in the galaxy, perhaps even in the solar system, but we probably hugely overestimate the probability of intelligent life. In any case, even if the critics’ arguments are overstated, the odds could merely be ‘moderately’ low and we may still be the first.

The argument against this eventually comes down to “it seems unlikely”. But fantastically unlikely events happen all the time; only earlier this year a commercial jet plane crashed out of the sky and into a building, and yet a man walked out unscathed. Why shouldn’t we be the first, at least in as large an area of space as is reasonable?

Mainstream science says, optimistically, that intelligence arose at most twice- hominids and troodontids, with the latter being wiped out by K/T before being able to make much of an impact on anything and being doubtful anyways. A 1/100 million year event, roughly, once life reaches the conditions that can develop intelligence. Not entirely implausible that there's tons of worlds stuck at jurassic levels of development, or even below.

Mainstream science says, optimistically, that intelligence arose at most twice- hominids and troodontids

Although there’s no real way to know, mainstream science generally views canids, lesser apes, some monkeys, some modern aves, dolphins, and perhaps octupus on a similar level or greater level of intelligence than troodontids.

I take it the fire using hypothesis is less mainstream than I had assumed it to be.

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