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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3484 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026

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Is the Fermi Paradox Debunked?

A new paper is out(https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404) concluding that the Drake equation is poorly designed and humans are most likely alone in the universe:

When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty.

When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.

TDLR the Drake equation is wrong by dramatically overrating the probability of other intelligent life. We are more likely to be alone than we thought, and my take on this has been for a while that if life was common we'd have experimentally demonstrated abiogenesis by now. But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues- the great filter is already behind us.

But this in turn debunks the great filter arguments people(mainly liberals) make about all sorts of pet issues-

I'm sure I'm not the first person to make this argument, but if the Great Filter is ahead of us, we're in deep trouble. It's not a problem that's going to be solved by cutting carbon emissions or pausing AI development for 6 months or implementing a worldwide North Korea style police state. It's something that's wiped out every last one of hundreds, thousands, or even millions of other intelligent species, including species which were well aware that they potentially faced a Great Filter.

Distance. Distance is the great filter. Both K2 and K3 civilizations require new physics. And there is scant reason to believe that there exist one. if we are stuck with the absurdly low speed of causality of 300000km/s the universe may be full to the gills with life and we won't be able to detect it.

Distance. Distance is the great filter. Both K2 and K3 civilizations require new physics. And there is scant reason to believe that there exist one. if we are stuck with the absurdly low speed of causality of 300000km/s the universe may be full to the gills with life and we won't be able to detect it.

Can we agree that in this scenario, we are probably alone in the Milky Way?

No, as i said in my own reply, if there were a civilization comparable in sophistication to Renaissance Italy 150 light years away from us right now how would we even know? Its not like we're going to pick up their radio signals.

No, as i said in my own reply, if there were a civilization comparable in sophistication to Renaissance Italy 150 light years away from us right now how would we even know?

I would go with the basic Fermi argument on this. If development of intelligent life is so likely as to produce intelligent civilizations that close to use in space and time, then almost certainly there would have been either Von Neuman probes or a colonization wave (from other intelligent civilizations) passing through our solar system hundreds of millions of years ago. And we don't see these things.

So we wouldn't specifically detect the hypothetical civilization you propose, but we can be pretty confident that it's not there.

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