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Notes -
Finally, concrete plan how to save the world from paperclipping dropped, presented by world (in)famous Basilisk Man himself.
https://twitter.com/RokoMijic/status/1647772106560552962
TL;DR: GPU's over certain capability are treated like fissionable materials, unauthorized possession, distribution and use will be seen as terrorism and dealt with appropriately.
So, is it feasible? Could it work?
If by "government" Roko means US government (plus
vassalsallies) alone, it is not possible.If US can get China aboard, if if there is worldwide expert consensus that unrestricted propagation of computing power will kill everyone, it is absolutely feasible to shut down 99,99% of unauthorized computing all over the world.
Unlike drugs or guns, GPU's are not something you can make in your basement - they are really like enriched uranium or plutonium in the sense you need massive industrial plants to produce them.
Unlike enriched uranium and plutonium, GPU's were already manufactured in huge numbers, but combination of carrots (big piles of cash) and sticks (missile strikes/special forces raids on suspicious locations) will continue dwindling them down and no new ones will be coming.
AI research will of course continue (like work on chemical and biological weapons goes on), but only by trustworthy government actors in the deepest secrecy. You can trust NSA (and Chinese equivalent) AI.
The most persecuted people of the world, gamers, will be, as usual, hit the hardest.
I like Anatoly Karlin's argument:
Naturally, people who speculate that their safetyism is protecting quintillions of eventual superduperhappy podmen scoff at a few tens or hundreds of excruciating megadeaths of their contemporaries.
Yudkowsky, for me, was at his most sympathetic when he lamented the death of his brother Yehuda Nattan.
It's still about one minute, likely zero, for our cryogenic technology didn't progress much since then. I liked Yud more when he worried about that, instead of freaking out on podcasts about the need to slow progress to a crawl.
OTOH, never cared much for Roko.
I pray that we lift the ridiculous restrictions on bio-tech and longevity soon. Even if we do get AI, regulation is a powerful force and I'm not holding out any hope.
One thing I wish transhumanists/cryonics folks would get better at is lobbying public opinion.
furiously takes notes
no, you are on to something:
If the transhumanist/cryonics crowd actually seemed to give a shit about the population at large, maybe the population would give a shit about them.
As is, they all get dragged down by their lunatic fringe sucking up all the oxygen
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Trans humanists aren’t Machiavellian enough. They need to throw away all their other principles and mouth whatever BS the zeitgeist wants to get their research done.
Reframed more snidley:
Transhumanists give more of a shit about their politics than their stated goals: they'd rather protect their NAP and genderinos and take the TRANS out of transhuman than actually accomplish anything, which is why they haven't and never will.
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Nah I think they've been nerd sniped by AI safety, that's the failure mode. They're still attached to the goal of saving the world they've just failed at rationality, and chosen the wrong means.
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