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greyenlightenment  investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...  11mo ago (npr.org)   2334 thread views

Eli Lilly releases data for a new weight-loss drug to tackle obesity : Shots - Health News : NPR

npr.org

This drug is a true gamechanger

In the SURMOUNT-1 study, people who took the highest dose of tirzepatide, most of whom had a BMI of about 30 or higher but did not have diabetes, lost about 21% of their body weight during the 72 week study. As researchers point out, for people who have bariatric surgery, typical weight loss is about 25% to 30% of their weight, one or two years after the surgery. In the tirzepatide study, 36% of people taking the highest dose lost 25% or more of their body weight.

this is comparable to bariatric surgery

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As NPR has reported, when patients can't afford to stay on obesity medications, they are likely to gain much of the weight back.

If I were Eli Lilly and Company, I would invest into food science, trying to make as many different hyperpalatable foods aimed at teenagers and young adults as possible. The more people have BMI of 30 by the time they are 30, the bigger the market for their drug is. Imagine the government first handing out food stamps to poor Americans, then paying for their obesity treatment via Medicaid.

Are "whales" really where McDonald's makes its money, as if it's like a company putting out free-2-play games for PCs and smartphones? I remember the iconic message you'd sometimes see spelled out on those signs outside: "Over 1 Billion Served." I'd assume that McD's business model relies less on sporadic-yet-still-plentiful gluttons and more on the literal billions of average joes who might choose the convenience of a double cheeseburger, fries, and a drink at least every once in a while.

That said, I'll acknowledge that your basic point might still be right, that this might be at least a small disaster for certain parts of the food and drink industry.

You don't have to be a whale to be a regular customer. A Big Mac, a small serving of fries and a diet soda is a perfectly cromulent lunch. A bit high in fats and tastes like nothing, but generally fine if you're an office worker. Hell, you can have the same setup for dinner and an Egg McMuffin Meal for breakfast and you'll be fine as a "thrice a day customer".

Of course, upgrading to medium fries adds 90 Cal per serving, a single packet of ranch is 110 Cal more, a small soda is 150 Cal, boom, you're eating 700 extra calories and putting on weight without being a "whale" that eats ten burgers every day. And that's without any other snacks and creamy sugary coffees the same person might have throughout the day.

but the way that their discounting/deals are structured suggests a keen awareness of this in practice

That wasn't my initial read of what the coupon books and occasional mobile discount appear to be for; I believe that's more to convince the semi-regular customers to find it worth coming to the store (given that they're basically 2/5ths off what a single person would want to buy). Sure, it's still perfectly possible to go full whale at that point, but I'm not sure what the amount of crosstalk is between coupon users and those who spend 40 for one big meal.

Or maybe those milkshakes are far more popular than I think they are, since that's probably the cheapest way to maximize calories.

The sheer difference in revenue between a 'twice a day' customer and a 'twice a year, when drunk'

There's a lot of middle missing in that statement; people who are too lazy or busy to pack a lunch or cook dinner tend to be people who visit fast food places semi-regularly. They're also the ones that respond well to those discounts. (Maybe it's a universal human experience to consider this a failure?)

I'm relatively certain that (though my sample size is small) with respect to "whales" the source of their size is diffuse factors and not from any one source in particular; I think packaged candy/chocolate/potato chip manufacturers will be most impacted because people don't need to re-buy them as much. Fast food tends to be people going from 0 meal to 1, less 1 meal to 2, so it's not "a magic drug that makes people stop going out to eat" and more "they only buy one meal's worth of food where they might otherwise buy 1.5-2x", thus they'll not likely be affected as much.

I think there's a large market of once a week customers (though I haven't gone to McDonalds in a long time.) Does McDonald's near you have a play gym? My mom would bring us there about once a week so that we could let out some energy.

It's an inexpensive meal for people who were running late and needed to get something on the way to work. Or couldn't go grocery shopping on the weekend due to a sick kid. The drive through has a huge appeal, especially when there's a one year old in the backseat.

I wouldn't eat at McDonalds (I can afford better options) but I can see the appeal. I would bet a large segment of the market is poorer families with young kids.

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