This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Does anyone think that the current massively inflated prices will ever fall? I'm still so pissed off about it, a year later. Due to the fact that much of my income is based on the company's stock, which massively fell the same time inflation went nuts, I make less money now than I did a few years ago, despite having been promoted and working harder than ever. Couple that with inflation making my money worth less, and it's a wonder I can afford any non-essential spending at all. Every single good that I buy has increased in price by very noticable amounts. Generally, many people may not have the same problem as me, where their income is based on stock, but still, most people's cost of living has greatly increased and their income has stayed the same. Prices have been so out of control lately.
Is it just the Russia-Ukraine war that's keeping prices so high, or is it more than that, like aftershock from the pandemic, lockdowns, and COVID relief spending upending the economy? What's the best to hope for? If the war ends, is all we have to look forward to a reduction in inflation, meaning that prices will stop going up? Or is deflation a possibility, to bring prices back down to previous levels? I know close to nothing about econ, but I always hear deflation talked about as if it's this terrible thing. I don't really know why, I guess just because it destabilizes the market, and makes outstanding debts larger. To me right now, my dollar being worth more sounds great. Is deflation immediately following inflation a bad thing if it just brings prices back to previous levels?
If I have a fixed long term contract to sell oil at $X and there's suddenly inflation, am I not equally screwed? There's a danger in the stability of fixed long term contracts going both ways.
Say the price of energy fell, that would cause deflation. Energy is used to make nearly everything and run every business. Why should energy getting cheaper be bad? That would be a good thing, lower costs for everyone, more money to buy other things, more production! Machinery should be improving, we should have widgets that can make more steel or cars with fewer inputs.
Investopedia suggests that deflation is bad in so far as it pops bubbles:
That might be bad for those flying high on printed money but it's not necessarily bad for the economy in the long term. Deflation as a result of Depression is another matter. Putting deflation to one side, we can see how people might pull out from investments if the economy is crashing, worsening the crash. But if deflation comes as a result of rising productivity, the economy should be growing and there shouldn't be a problem.
Through a more conspiratorial lens, the power of central banks is that they print money. The more money they print (up to a point) the more power they have. When they print money, they redistribute wealth from productive industries and savers to their buddies in the government and financial sector. If the money supply needs to grow, there should be fair rules about how it expands and a cost for expansion. Either dig out gold from the ground or mine bitcoin or whatever, just don't have a system where a single well-connected body can print as much as they like arbitrarily.
Deflation is good actually, as long as it's from increased productivity, not a giant fall in demand due to the collapse of an asset bubble, which are usually propped up by reckless monetary policy.
That’s why you hedge against inflation and hedge against forex as routine business practice. Even medium sized businesses do this because it enables financial planning. It’s insurance, but for money.
there are few good hedges except maybe a long-term fixed rate mortgage. You want to take out a lot of debt if you think inflation will rise. Cash, ironically, is a good hedge, only because other assets tend to do worse or low correlation. In the longer-run cash does worse for obvious reasons, but short-term it is the best hedge.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link