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I mean, Re: Hillary, destruction of evidence is a pretty automatic charge. Can you imagine Trump not being charged with it? Not to mention the 1001 charges (also apparently seen here, according to reporting), and the OIG report quoted FBI agents who were dumbstruck as to why such charges weren't brought against folks, because they were dead-to-rights. But nope; that stuff is reserved for the likes of Flynn and Trump... the folks who need to be removed.
Possibly more interesting for actual culture war analysis is just observing the public narrative shift. Back in the days before it was fashionable to prosecute Trump and anyone related to Trump, when the possible charges were against Hillary, it was a grave and serious thing to prosecute politicians, especially when they had possible elections in front of them. "That's the stuff of banana republics!" they said. "That's, like, what Putin does!" they said. It was "deeply dangerous for democracy". Whether or not our democracy was legitimate was supposedly hanging in the balance, depending upon whether their preferred candidate was charged with a crime. You don't hear that anymore. For good or for bad, fair and just or unfair and unjust, it's a change in the narrative. Whether this change can be easily flip-flopped on in another 5-10 years... or whether it will be persistent, possibly leading to endless tit-for-tat, I don't know.
Do you have any theories for why this changed? Were there any chants at political rallies or something agitating for this shift in norms?
Why the assumption it was driven bottom up? The most obvious explanation seems to be that the establishment wanted to protect Clinton and now wants to go after Trump.
I'm not assuming anything, I'm asking about where this apparent shift came from.
But why suggest chants at rallies as the mechanism for change, or that the change in messaging implies a shift in values rather being an expression of current objectives?
That was one theory but I'm open to others, hence the question. Just because I don't mention other explanations doesn't mean I've already dismissed them as possibilities.
Why not post your theory in full instead of just hinting at it?
I explain in my other response here. I can't offer a theory for something I don't fully endorse. The purpose of questions is to gain answers, hence why I asked someone who did endorse the theory for an explanation.
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Ah yes, the gotcha. It's the right's fault, so your observation is invalid. Sorry, but I can acknowledge that the right certainly played a significant part in chipping away at the norm... while also acknowledging that the observation remains true. In the before days, one could at least sit back and say, "There are some crazy righties chanting 'lock her up', but we're a serious democracy which doesn't prosecute politicians on questionable charges, and there are serious people who will ensure that we stay that way." I am on record as one of those people, prior to Trump's election, prior to the reality become clear to everyone that he didn't try to force through some charges. (As an aside, has there ever been a single piece of reporting along the lines of, "We're giving an exclusive account of the breathtaking meetings in which Donald Trump applied consistent pressure to produce a prosecution, but was rebuffed by so-and-so"?)
At the same time, one can also sit back and say, "It turns out that many people who said they were serious people who would ensure that we're a serious democracy which doesn't prosecute politicians on questionable charges... are now cheering on efforts to prosecute politicians on questionable charges, so long as they're the politicians they don't like."
I agree that the public statements are a problem, even in the absence of substantial actions. One possible world we could have ended up in is a world where dems chant "lock him up" at rallies, but then dem politicians still refrain from pushing questionable charges once in office. It might have been a weird state of affairs; maybe the chants would continue to be tit-for-tat, but serious people would ensure that reality stays serious alongside it. In that world, do the chants eventually go away? Do they persist, like how in many other domains, the public chants and pushes both sides' politicians for things that those politicians continually reject actually doing? Man, I don't know. I wouldn't like it, but I don't know how it would go. Regardless, we are no longer in that possible timeline. We're in a different one.
I'm not denying your observation, I actually think it's probably true though there are too many variables to control for conclusively. I also agree with you that at least some of the current charges against Trump are questionable (Stormy Daniels hush-money payment is the prime example).
Regardless, I was curious about the progeny of this apparent shift that you describe. Would it be fair to characterize the "lock her up" and "because you'd be in jail" comments as just bloviating on Trump's part? The fact that there's no evidence that Trump tried to push for any prosecution against Clinton while he was in office supports this. Even so, the fact this bloviating was such irresistible ambrosia for his base indicates it was tapping on some deep-seated desire among at least some Americans to prosecute and jail politicians from the other side. Would you agree?
At that point it's an interesting question how much we can blame this on a sort of "lab leak", a meme that went unintentionally viral.
I already said that the right started the chanting. Please speak plainly.
Sorry, I don't know which part is confusing. You described a shift in norms about how seriously the prospect of prosecuting politicians used to be treated. I was asking about what you thought contributed to this shift, including asking what you thought the popularity of the "lock her up" chant indicated (e.g. did it contribute towards causing the shift or is it the symptom of something else? etc). Let me know if that makes sense.
Clearly and obviously, starting to chant shifts the norm from a world where people don't chant to a world where people chant, but nothing is seriously done. There are many many issues that live in such a state.
Then, thinking about the world of various issues that progress from "people chant, but nothing is seriously done," there is a spectrum. For some issues, most folks are perplexed as to why nothing serious is done. Perhaps it must just be corruption or whatever (e.g., they think climate change is really bad, they chant about climate change, but nothing is done, so maybe it's just a bunch of polluting companies paying off politicians to not do anything serious). For other issues, most folks think, "It would be madness if something were seriously done about these chants." Perhaps even the major journalistic outlets are filled with serious remarks from serious people saying, "It would be madness if something were seriously done about these chants... and I'm a serious person who will make sure that nothing is seriously done about these chants." I'm sure there are many other cases.
What factors lead some of these chants to become reality, while others don't? I don't know. I don't have a consistent theory here. I'm sure others in the thread will chime in, "Whether or not it serves the regime." Maybe. I don't know. What do you think?
I generally agree with your characterization. With regards to which chants become reality, I wouldn't know either. I had a recent post about why some ideas become viral which might explain some of the circumstances.
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I supported Trump and argued for others to do so in 2015. One of my core arguments was that we needed to break the taboo on prosecuting politicians for their misdeeds, because too many politicians had gotten away with serious misconduct for too long. I explicitly argued that Trump getting impeached or prosecuted was a fairly likely outcome of him winning the election, and that this would be an entirely acceptable outcome due to the long-term damage it would do to our current regime, not because the regime would actually start holding people accountable, but purely from heightening of the contradictions, making their hypocrisy evident.
So yes, I absolutely think Trump arguing for prosecution of Clinton has had a direct impact on making his prosecution more likely.
Do you think that the contradictions are, in fact, heightened? That his prosecution is not the predetermined outcome of an impartial process, but very clearly "manipulation of procedural outcomes"?
I think I understand but not completely, what "contradictions" are you referring to? It seems that you're saying Trump's inevitable impeachment would be a good thing insofar as it would highlight how normally permissive the regime is about prosecuting politicians?
The contradiction I'm pointing to is between the standard applied to an establishment politician, versus the standard applied to an outsider or populist politician. The prosecutions against Trump and his associates can be compared to the passes given to establishment creatures of either party over the last thirty or forty years. Is that clear enough, or are specific examples needed?
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No offense, but did you really do so in 2015? Can you link to a post arguing that position at that point?
I'm fully prepared to believe that you did. With most other posters I'd doubt. It just sounds like the kind of claims people make with hindsight.
I was wrong, it was 2016, but pre-election. Here's an example:
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Obviously. Also it's fun to say "Lock Her Up!" It's a good chant. But Trump did nothing to actually lock her up, so none of that justifies actual legal moves against Trump by Democrats in power.
Sure, I never said otherwise. Assuming the shift @ControlsFreak describes is real, I was curious about how it came about. Would you agree that the frequency of the chant contributed something to moving the overton window?
No, I do not believe the chant moved the overton window towards making prosecution of one's political enemies acceptable at all.
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I mean, it would lead to endless tit-for-tat only as long as supplies of crimes last. I mean, you could make it last a long time by changing laws, but you'd have to put a bunch of additional work in. Absent a new wave of ex-post-facto laws or blatant procedure prosecutions, honestly my first reaction is "yes, good." Let justice reign, etc.
Nah, we've got plenty of laws. Especially when people are pushing ideas like, "Campaign finance laws make it illegal to talk to foreigners," trying to resurrect the Logan Act, etc.
Can I introduce you to an indictment from New York County?
Through the last eight years or so, with the left-leaning friends I have in the real world, I've had discussions about this possible politician crime or that possible politician crime. There have been many such times where they were wound up about how you could totally plausibly read the law in a way that totally plausibly gets at so-and-so. Often, I just poke at the implications of their broad reading, especially given the reality of political life. When they start to see just how broadly this shit could be construed if we walk down that path, then I drop, "Is this something that you really value enough to 'let justice reign' equally on both sides' politicians?" And some issues might actually be. Most of them have not been. Most of the time, they realize, "Actually, that would probably have some pretty bad effects and barely bring any real benefit to society."
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The supply of crimes will never run out; there's enough laws you can find a crime for anyone who does anything significant if you're willing to stretch them enough. The idea is there won't be endless tit-for-tat because the current people doing the prosecution expect to remain in power permanently partially as a result of doing so. Full banana republic style.
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