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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   28359 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 28, 2023

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Vivek Ramaswamy has written an article on his foreign policy doctrine, focusing on China.

He is squarely taking aim at the "neocons and liberal internationalists", in other words the two main constituents of what Obama referred to as "the Blob" dominating foreign policy in D.C. He is predictably being called an isolationist and WaPo columnists are freaking out.

WaPo columnists themselves are not relevant but they are often mouthpieces for more powerful interests. Trump was hated for many things but one underappreciated aspect of why the Blob hated him was his instinct not to start new wars. In fact, he is one of the few presidents in recent memory who did not start a new war and he tried to get out of Syria - twice - but was undermined by his own bureaucracy.

Vivek is a much smarter guy than Trump, so I wonder if the Blob would be able to run circles around him the way they did around Trump. I doubt it and I suspect they doubt it too, which is why I think a campaign to destroy Vivek is likely to ramp up before too long. Trump couldn't be controlled outright but at least he could be misled.

People have really summed up the issue with the guy; he really does sound like he's playing Paradox grand strategy games with actual grand strategy.

With Nixon and Monroe firmly in hand, we can now move into application. Let us start with our great power rival, China, and the jewel of their near-abroad, Taiwan. We have operated in strategic ambiguity with regard to Taiwan for far too long. I will move to strategic clarity, by which I mean that China must understand that I will defend American interests in Taiwan. If Taiwan wants any partnership in their defense, then they will need to raise their defense spending and military readiness to acceptable levels. Meanwhile, I will commit to making sure Taiwan has the weapons they need for that defense, both from a sea-borne invasion, and in future, for a long-term insurgency against any occupying foreign force, if needed.

Vivek has publicly said that he's going to tell China "we'll defend Taiwan until we get semiconductor independence". Which...I guess everyone is supposed to take well?

Can we consider one potential consequence of telling Taiwan that the US will defend them right now (against an enemy that continually states it'll declare war if Taiwan ever tries for independence) while also promising to throw them under the bus as soon as the US is sufficiently diversified?

In Paradox-land, only the player has agency so it isn't that big a deal. People are less cooperative.

I assume you are referring to a Nuclear Taiwan. It’s the obvious thing Taiwan would do if the US security guarantee had a sell by date. And about 30 other countries would go nuclear if the U.S. removed their security guarantees.

I was thinking openly secessionist Taiwan but nukes would likely be a prereq.

Americans wrecked Taiwanese nuclear program in 1980s, there's no way they'd get away with it now.

Taiwan is an ultra-high tech wealthy country. If it wants nukes, it can’t be stopped from building them, and honestly the sanctions regime that could even slow it down is the kind which can’t be imposed on the seat of TSMC.

If it wants nukes, it can’t be stopped from building them,

Well, Americans asked them nicely to stop it ~35 years ago and Taiwan did stop. There's little evidence they're diverting bomb-suitable material or making their own.

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