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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 25, 2023

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The latest Trump legal woes comes once again from NY where a judge ordered his business dissolved for fraud. Nobody losts money and it came down to some misstatements. I haven’t read the full case, but the judge on a high profile part of the case is completely off. Not even ballpark off.

He valued Mar-a-Lago at 17-25 million. I texted a broker in the area and he told me 100 million for an ocean acre and 25 million for a non-ocean acres. Mar is between 17-20 acres depending where you look online. Palm Beach has gone up a lot since COVID so maybe divide those numbers by 2 since Trump made his filling. He listed the property at 450-650 million. Without doing a full underwriting (maybe zoning issues where it couldn’t be worth the raw land price) it still appears Mar is worth a lot of money.

If you are going to do lawfare shouldn’t you avoid obvious mistakes? It’s easy to see a headline and write this whole case off as political. It weakens public perception of all other cases if you make mistakes that are this stupid.

If I am remembering this case correctly he did likely violate the law and include some statement that were obviously false but in a category that no one besides Donald Trump gets prosecuted for. So the case of Mar-a-Lago violates a principle of maintaining plausible deniability.

Edit: @AshLael looked up the prosecutors brief and it appears they did not use the tax assessment for valuation purposes. Which would negate my main point. The judge has a history of making stuff up against real estate developers and being later reversed. It’s quite possible this judge hates developers and just does stupid things.

https://twitter.com/goodguyguaranty/status/1707232241925910944?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ

https://nypost.com/2023/09/27/mar-a-lago-judges-developer-hating-past-is-a-big-win-for-donald-trump/

Which would change the ruling and it’s citations to much more of all developer are bastards story (which is culture war) than my why are you lawfaring stupidly story

I agree that if the inflated valuations weren’t used to obtain any financial benefits (eg. borrow money or attract investors) then it’s not a serious issue. Still, the flipside then is ‘why lie lol?’.

But in a wider sense it mirrors most of Trump’s legal issues, ie. stuff that he really didn’t have to do and which didn’t benefit him in any way, but which he did for ego-related reasons that now allow political opponents to easily go after him.

I agree that if the inflated valuations weren’t used to obtain any financial benefits (eg. borrow money

They were used to borrow money.

I don’t know anything about commercial real estate, but weren’t people below saying that declared valuations in an SFC statement aren’t really relevant to these decisions?

From the OAG's filing:

Starting in 2011 the relationship with Deutsche Bank was revitalized when Mr. Trump and the Trump Organization initiated a relationship with bankers in the Private Wealth Management (“PWM”) division of Deutsche Bank, which enabled them to obtain more favorable terms than they could have received through the CRE division by having Mr. Trump personally guarantee the loans based on his net worth as reflected in his Statements of Financial Condition.

In essence, rather than obtain credit facilities through the wing of Deutsche Bank with an expertise in commercial real estate, Mr. Trump began to seek funds from a wing of Deutsche Bank focused on servicing ultrawealthy clients. Hence, Mr. Trump’s personal guaranty, and his representations regarding his finances that backed up that guaranty, featured prominently in Mr. Trump’s loan transactions through the PWM wing of Deutsche Bank.

Defendants submitted SFCs to Deustche Bank as part of their contractual obligations arising out of three different loans.

I do think it’s a little thin on the ground. I wasn’t able to casually find other prosecutions based on SFCs, which suggests they are either 1) rare or 2) observed mainly in the breach.