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Is there any strategic long term benefit to what Hamas did? I really don't know much about it or follow that conflict because I find it to be boring at this point, but based off vibes I felt like Israel was really starting to lose support in the West. Reminding Westerners in France, US, UK etc how savage and violent Islamists can be seems like it was a huge mistake. People on the left will say white nationalists and right wing extremists are more violent than Islamists, but I really think this is obviously not true and they know it. Right wing terrorists that kill innocent people are usually lone wolf terrorists or in small cells. They also generally operate in their own countries. Islamist terrorists are like if thousands of these people got together in political organizations that have long term political goals. Reminding people that these are the kinds of people Israel has to deal with will garner them a lot of support and they also stupidly filmed their atrocities and put it on social media. I think people will generally support Israel here, at least for a little bit.
Some people are saying that this will kill other Arab countries recognizing Israel, but I think that will still happen anyway. Sometimes things are just inevitable, like the end of slavery or Jim Crow. I think this is a similar thing because it is in Saudi Arabia's long term interest to recognize Israel because they want to do business in the West and diversify away from oil. To do that, they need to be on somewhat decent terms with Israel. Plus, their country is rapidly modernizing and who knows if in 15 years young people in SA will even care that much.
It seems to me, Hamas just did a YOLO attack for really no long term gain. The only thing I can think of is they just want to cause chaos and see what happens because they have nothing to lose. Maybe they can shake things up and things turn out better for them.
Am I totally off here? I am woefully ignorant on this issue, but that's what I'm thinking.
The big winner here is Iran; Israel has been working hard to normalize relations with as many arab countries as possible, and has been coming close for SA in particular. The problem is, while the arab elites are often westernised and receptive to talks of peace, the common arab man still absolutely hates Israel's guts. As long as there is no open conflict, the arab elite can go behind the population's back and broker contracts with Israel. But the moment any violence breaks out, the arab population is on Palestina's side no matter what. Hamas can massacre civilians and they will go "good riddance", and even if Israel would just answer with peace calls instead of violence, they will say "Israel is afraid, now it's time to strike!".
Engineering this conflict puts a wrench int relations between Israel and any other arab country, and weakens SA's position in particular. Yes the elites know what you know and would love to change things, but recognizing Israel while a conflict with Palestina is brewing is just about the only thing that could possible cause a rebellion to usurp the elite.
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