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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   2320 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 8, 2023

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Is there any strategic long term benefit to what Hamas did? I really don't know much about it or follow that conflict because I find it to be boring at this point, but based off vibes I felt like Israel was really starting to lose support in the West. Reminding Westerners in France, US, UK etc how savage and violent Islamists can be seems like it was a huge mistake. People on the left will say white nationalists and right wing extremists are more violent than Islamists, but I really think this is obviously not true and they know it. Right wing terrorists that kill innocent people are usually lone wolf terrorists or in small cells. They also generally operate in their own countries. Islamist terrorists are like if thousands of these people got together in political organizations that have long term political goals. Reminding people that these are the kinds of people Israel has to deal with will garner them a lot of support and they also stupidly filmed their atrocities and put it on social media. I think people will generally support Israel here, at least for a little bit.

Some people are saying that this will kill other Arab countries recognizing Israel, but I think that will still happen anyway. Sometimes things are just inevitable, like the end of slavery or Jim Crow. I think this is a similar thing because it is in Saudi Arabia's long term interest to recognize Israel because they want to do business in the West and diversify away from oil. To do that, they need to be on somewhat decent terms with Israel. Plus, their country is rapidly modernizing and who knows if in 15 years young people in SA will even care that much.

It seems to me, Hamas just did a YOLO attack for really no long term gain. The only thing I can think of is they just want to cause chaos and see what happens because they have nothing to lose. Maybe they can shake things up and things turn out better for them.

Am I totally off here? I am woefully ignorant on this issue, but that's what I'm thinking.

The only thing I can think of is they just want to cause chaos and see what happens because they have nothing to lose. Maybe they can shake things up and things turn out better for them.

Who is the "they" here? Palestine? Palestinians? The Gaza Strip? Residents of the Gaza Strip? Or Hamas? Or the leaders of Hamas? Clarifying whose interests are being pursued is necessary if your question is going to be answered. Because those who made the decision to launch this attack are almost certainly acting in their own interests, not the interests of the Gaza Strip or its residents. The decision was probably driven in part by internal politics, either between Hamas and its political rivals, or among factions within Hamas. That is hardly an unusual phenomenon (see the Falklands War). Note than "driven by internal politics" does not preclude the possibility that Iran played an important role, given that Hamas relies on Iran for some of its funding, which like all governing organizations Hamas uses to purchase legitimacy (whether in the form of public services or in the form of striking Israel).

I think we need a megathread going, the next few weeks are going to be INSANE

The big winner here is Iran; Israel has been working hard to normalize relations with as many arab countries as possible, and has been coming close for SA in particular. The problem is, while the arab elites are often westernised and receptive to talks of peace, the common arab man still absolutely hates Israel's guts. As long as there is no open conflict, the arab elite can go behind the population's back and broker contracts with Israel. But the moment any violence breaks out, the arab population is on Palestina's side no matter what. Hamas can massacre civilians and they will go "good riddance", and even if Israel would just answer with peace calls instead of violence, they will say "Israel is afraid, now it's time to strike!".

Engineering this conflict puts a wrench int relations between Israel and any other arab country, and weakens SA's position in particular. Yes the elites know what you know and would love to change things, but recognizing Israel while a conflict with Palestina is brewing is just about the only thing that could possible cause a rebellion to usurp the elite.

the end of slavery

For the record, slavery is still very much present in the world today and probably won't be going anywhere any time soon.

It seems to me, Hamas just did a YOLO attack for really no long term gain

The future is uncertain, by preventing recognition of Israel today, they are effectively buying another roll of the dice tomorrow and hoping for more favourable conditions to emerge that can then be exploited. Superficially this sounds like YOLO'ing it, but it's a more considered strategy.

I felt like Israel was really starting to lose support in the West

Reminding people that these are the kinds of people Israel has to deal with will garner them a lot of support and they also stupidly filmed their atrocities and put it on social media

You're thinking like a westerner and focusing far too much on a peripheral audience. Filming atrocities energises their arab/islamic base and will push Israel into pursuing a harder line and probably killing a bunch of Palestinian civilians to boot, which makes for useful propaganda. It's a win/win for Hamas on the PR front as far as they're concerned.

At this point the ball is very much in Israels court, it'll be interesting to see what tack Israel takes in this next phase of the war.

This feels very "well actually" where you purposely misinterpret what I said to make me look bad. And it also feels like you are accusing me of having an agenda when I literally said I am asking a question and that I could be wrong.

I am completely indifferent to if you look good or bad, if you have an agenda or are simply asking questions. My post was nothing more than a stream of consciousness in response to a prompt.

I am far from qualified to comment on the intricacies of the long-term conflict.

But I can spitball a few motivations that make sense EVEN IF they knew or should have known that Israel would respond disproportionately.

  1. To spur further funding from their sponsors by demonstrating the ability to inflict real damage.

  2. To take advantage of the U.S. being distracted by Ukraine and generally less able to police the region (esp. after that horrendous Afghanistan withdrawal).

  3. Possible diversion for an ally's action. See what Iran might attempt in the coming days, for instance.

Sometimes things are just inevitable, like the end of slavery or Jim Crow.

Ironic to pull the 'end of slavery' as an example, given that slavery "ended" in the U.S. after a lengthy and extremely bloody war. Do you think the Slave states just "Yolo'd" against the forces of history, or did they have reason to fight over it and possibly believe they'd succeed?

And indeed, some people would count "the eventual annexation of Palestine into Israel" as one of those historical inevitabilities.

I actually do think there's nothing the South could have done to keep slavery in the long term and it was more or less a pointless YOLO. I think that even if they South won they would have gotten rid of slavery pretty quickly afterwards because it wasn't viable economically long term and they would have been a pariah state in the West after everyone else outlawed it.

So why would it be confusing that Hamas might YOLO in a similar situation where they are fighting against an inevitable outcome?

I think we agree? My question was if there is a strategic long term goal I'm missing because I have no clue what I am talking about on this issue. And I don't think a YOLO is irrational under certain circumstances, so maybe this attack by Hamas was rational even if it was barbaric and cruel.

It's about the best they can muster under current circumstances.

I would just wait to see if there is any indication of a phase 2 to the plan.

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