naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran?
What is an attack on Iran supposed to do, besides a generally cathartic moment?
No, I doubt this will lead to anything overt, at least not until the Gaza Strip siege concludes. I'd expect Israel to take a long-form asymmetric conflict approach for revenge. Fewer F-16s on long-strike missions, and more drone assassinations on IRGC and others.
The attacks on Iran will, ideally from Israel's viewpoint, stop Iran from getting an atomic bomb and damage Iran's economy thereby reducing Iran's ability to fund the enemies of Israel.
I am familiar with some science fiction weapons that could meaningfully achieve that, but nothing in Israel's inventory that would be reasonably be used as that effect.
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Notes -
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
What is an attack on Iran supposed to do, besides a generally cathartic moment?
No, I doubt this will lead to anything overt, at least not until the Gaza Strip siege concludes. I'd expect Israel to take a long-form asymmetric conflict approach for revenge. Fewer F-16s on long-strike missions, and more drone assassinations on IRGC and others.
The attacks on Iran will, ideally from Israel's viewpoint, stop Iran from getting an atomic bomb and damage Iran's economy thereby reducing Iran's ability to fund the enemies of Israel.
I am familiar with some science fiction weapons that could meaningfully achieve that, but nothing in Israel's inventory that would be reasonably be used as that effect.
Well they do have nuclear weapons if we are talking about sci-fi scenarios
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