naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
Biden and Obama have tried to make peace between Iran and the US, which is why the US recently unfroze $6 billion in Iranian funds. It is in the US interest to prevent a large war in the Middle East. It is in Biden's interest to prevent a significant increase in the price of gas that would likely come about because of such a war.
Part of me wonders if Biden is hopeful for a war. Predictions were already on gas prices going higher and Biden emptied the strategic reserve to turn the red wave into a ripple at best.
If there is a war, he can say “not my fault shit happens in the world”
But Trump will blame the war on Biden saying that Biden unfreezing Iran's assets enabled Iran and sent a signal to Iran that we would be OK with them attacking Israel. Trump would point out that during his presidency Iran didn't cause trouble because Trump did things like assassinate Iranian general Soleimani. Trump would claim that Russian invading Ukraine during Biden's but not his presidency is another example of how US perceived weakness causes war.
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Notes -
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
I fail to see a single reason to assume Biden would sanction Israel for such an attack in any situation, Republican applause or not.
Biden and Obama have tried to make peace between Iran and the US, which is why the US recently unfroze $6 billion in Iranian funds. It is in the US interest to prevent a large war in the Middle East. It is in Biden's interest to prevent a significant increase in the price of gas that would likely come about because of such a war.
Part of me wonders if Biden is hopeful for a war. Predictions were already on gas prices going higher and Biden emptied the strategic reserve to turn the red wave into a ripple at best.
If there is a war, he can say “not my fault shit happens in the world”
But Trump will blame the war on Biden saying that Biden unfreezing Iran's assets enabled Iran and sent a signal to Iran that we would be OK with them attacking Israel. Trump would point out that during his presidency Iran didn't cause trouble because Trump did things like assassinate Iranian general Soleimani. Trump would claim that Russian invading Ukraine during Biden's but not his presidency is another example of how US perceived weakness causes war.
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