naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
28880 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
“Has been a supporter of hamas” is a pretty low bar. Egypt and and Syria used to do it openly. Qatar and Turkey still do. Direct retaliation must require more than that.
I think you are looking at the issue from the viewpoint of a moral philosopher. From Israel's viewpoint what matters is will the attack mean if it attacks Iran, the US won't punish it?
There is good reason to believe that even the American high command doesn't think it can actually win a war of invasion against Iran in any realistic scenario.
No, I’m not thinking about morality. I’m saying the strategic calculus is unfavorable even if the US doesn’t express disapproval. A shooting war with Iran would result in more Israeli casualties than any terrorist attack, and I don’t get the impression that it would meaningfully cripple their ability to fund Hamas. Far more efficient to spend that money and manpower retaliating against the people who were directly responsible.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
Slim to none.
“Has been a supporter of hamas” is a pretty low bar. Egypt and and Syria used to do it openly. Qatar and Turkey still do. Direct retaliation must require more than that.
I think you are looking at the issue from the viewpoint of a moral philosopher. From Israel's viewpoint what matters is will the attack mean if it attacks Iran, the US won't punish it?
There is good reason to believe that even the American high command doesn't think it can actually win a war of invasion against Iran in any realistic scenario.
Agreed. But lots of damage could be inflicted by air attacked. Alan Dershowitz wants Israel to destroy Iran's nuclear ambitions. https://twitter.com/HappyCamper2626/status/1710815116479058301
A rather unsurprising turn of events
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
No, I’m not thinking about morality. I’m saying the strategic calculus is unfavorable even if the US doesn’t express disapproval. A shooting war with Iran would result in more Israeli casualties than any terrorist attack, and I don’t get the impression that it would meaningfully cripple their ability to fund Hamas. Far more efficient to spend that money and manpower retaliating against the people who were directly responsible.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link