naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
28921 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I've been thinking: what's the Palestinian path to victory? Ie. what's the course of action that would lead to an establishment of a from-the-river-to-the-sea Palestine? (Not focusing here on the desirability of that path etc.)
Any way one looks at it, the only way to get at this would be a war with Israel's neighbors joining in. Of course this hasn't happened since Yom Kippur War, and much of Israel's foreign and security policy has been successfully trying to make sure this doesn't happen. Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel and reasonably non-hostile governments (with their own reasons to hope that the situation stays stable), Lebanon and Syria are destabilized, Saudis are too dependent on US and too focused elsewhere to be a threat.
However, as far as I've understood, Egyptian and Jordanian populations continue to be strongly pro-Palestine, Jordan has a huge amount of Palestinian refugees, and Egypt continues to have many problems that make it a potential flash point. Would a sufficiently atrocious response by Israel have a possibility of leading to revolutions and strongly anti-Israel regimes taking power? Might Lebanon and Syria be stabilized, with Lebanon falling under Hezbollah rule? If all of Israel's neighbors started another big war, can Israel repeat the same as in 1947, 1968 and 1973? The traditional answer would be "probably", but the state of IDF currently looks like there's a lot of mythology and hot air underpinning that proposition.
I genuinely have no idea about these things, which is why I'm asking here.
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities, and the nukes are without doubt functional, so no, I don't imagine even a more radical Egyptian regime throwing in their lot with Palestinians (in a sufficiently open way to matter).
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities
It says something about a decline in intelligence capabilities. Not sure whether that's in the hands of Mossad or IDF or whatever, but it's a sad decline from "can find and exfiltrate Eichmann out of a decade of hiding ten thousand miles away" to "can't notice thousands of missiles and mobilized raiders prepping an attack 2 miles from your border, timed for the 50th anniversary of another surprise attack".
I'd agree that doesn't necessarily say there's been a similar decline in warfighting capabilities, though. Except ...
the nukes are without doubt functional
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now. Although I certainly wouldn't want to be one of the Philistines who tests their Samson Option, I could easily imagine some zealot talking themselves into believing that it's not really a danger. The US carrier group sitting off their coasts is a much less hypothetical threat; I don't know what Hamas was thinking by attacking civilian targets with Americans among them.
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now.
It's your keyboard, hit whatever you like.
That being said, I would rather hit cancel, because if you think Israel lacks the state capacity or competence to keep one of its strongest strategic deterrents alive, then I strongly ask you reconsider. They're no Russia, and even they likely have plenty of working nukes, no matter what NAFO claims about the condition of their silos.
The Israelis don't test theirs for the same reason pretty much nobody who isn't starting from scratch does, there's little purpose. Simulations are sufficient, as is checking that the mechanisms work, especially after you have a practical confirmation.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I've been thinking: what's the Palestinian path to victory? Ie. what's the course of action that would lead to an establishment of a from-the-river-to-the-sea Palestine? (Not focusing here on the desirability of that path etc.)
Any way one looks at it, the only way to get at this would be a war with Israel's neighbors joining in. Of course this hasn't happened since Yom Kippur War, and much of Israel's foreign and security policy has been successfully trying to make sure this doesn't happen. Egypt and Jordan have peace treaties with Israel and reasonably non-hostile governments (with their own reasons to hope that the situation stays stable), Lebanon and Syria are destabilized, Saudis are too dependent on US and too focused elsewhere to be a threat.
However, as far as I've understood, Egyptian and Jordanian populations continue to be strongly pro-Palestine, Jordan has a huge amount of Palestinian refugees, and Egypt continues to have many problems that make it a potential flash point. Would a sufficiently atrocious response by Israel have a possibility of leading to revolutions and strongly anti-Israel regimes taking power? Might Lebanon and Syria be stabilized, with Lebanon falling under Hezbollah rule? If all of Israel's neighbors started another big war, can Israel repeat the same as in 1947, 1968 and 1973? The traditional answer would be "probably", but the state of IDF currently looks like there's a lot of mythology and hot air underpinning that proposition.
I genuinely have no idea about these things, which is why I'm asking here.
I don't think IDF's less-than-stellar first response says anything about their strategic capabilities, and the nukes are without doubt functional, so no, I don't imagine even a more radical Egyptian regime throwing in their lot with Palestinians (in a sufficiently open way to matter).
It says something about a decline in intelligence capabilities. Not sure whether that's in the hands of Mossad or IDF or whatever, but it's a sad decline from "can find and exfiltrate Eichmann out of a decade of hiding ten thousand miles away" to "can't notice thousands of missiles and mobilized raiders prepping an attack 2 miles from your border, timed for the 50th anniversary of another surprise attack".
I'd agree that doesn't necessarily say there's been a similar decline in warfighting capabilities, though. Except ...
Can I press X to doubt? High explosives generally degrade within several years, so you need constant stockpile maintenance, and it's been four or five decades since an Israeli nuclear test, assuming everyone's suspicions are correct on that score. I wouldn't even bet on 0% of US warheads being duds if they were fired right now. Although I certainly wouldn't want to be one of the Philistines who tests their Samson Option, I could easily imagine some zealot talking themselves into believing that it's not really a danger. The US carrier group sitting off their coasts is a much less hypothetical threat; I don't know what Hamas was thinking by attacking civilian targets with Americans among them.
It's your keyboard, hit whatever you like.
That being said, I would rather hit cancel, because if you think Israel lacks the state capacity or competence to keep one of its strongest strategic deterrents alive, then I strongly ask you reconsider. They're no Russia, and even they likely have plenty of working nukes, no matter what NAFO claims about the condition of their silos.
The Israelis don't test theirs for the same reason pretty much nobody who isn't starting from scratch does, there's little purpose. Simulations are sufficient, as is checking that the mechanisms work, especially after you have a practical confirmation.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link