naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Its been quite an interesting couple years. The Israel-Palestine conflict is by far the most complicated Geo-Political conflict of modern times, and there's really no good answer to how this will end. Even the best outcomes have incredible downsides. While there's much to say about the specifics of the conflict, I wanted to focus on a couple of general observations around the discourse about both this war and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Does anyone else notice that the majority of online discourse about these foreign wars are often made as if they are being played out in some RTS video game? I see many takes that suggest that due to Israels military superiority, Hamas complete and utter destruction is simply inevitable, and will come swiftly once Israel deploys their infantry into Gaza. Does this not completely stand in the way of all prior evidence and attempts by far greater military powers to dismantle extremist terrorism in their territories? America controlled Afghanistan for twenty years and was still unable to dismantle the Taliban, and once they left they quickly took power in the region again. That's not even considering the actual logistical problems of waging an all out offensive within a dense, urban population of millions of people. I feel that war has become such an impossibility in the West that we have really lost the script on what it really entails.
On the rhetorical side of the debate, I find that Leftists are generally split between which side of the conflict they are supporting. Many of the hardline leftists are explicitly pro-Palestine, while more moderate leftists are explicitly pro Israel. It's not fallacious to say that if any minority group in America faced the same legal and administrative discrimination's that Palestinians face in Israel, they would call it a crime against humanity. Palestinians have quite strict guidelines on where they live, where they can work, are not granted Citizenship by birthright, and don't even have freedom of movement between Gaza and the West bank. The irony of Leftists supporting Israel while simultaneously blaming America for having systemic,institutional prejudices is not lost on me.
The only thing complicated about Israel is the Jews are involved. And they matter. If it was two ethnics groups fighting in Africa they would have just ended on side and the issue ends. Syria was just as complicated. But nobody cares that much and Assad was allowed to do what was necessary to put down rebellion without the same concern about the majority impoverished Muslims.
Sometimes I feel like we don’t even frame these wars correctly. Everything boils down to Iran versus Arabs and not as much Jews versus Muslims when figuring out why America is backing one side versus the other. Because the US backing Assad the Christian rule (who was a little neoliberal) always seemed like a more natural ally for the US.
If oil deposits had been arranged differently and Iran had more oil than the Arabs then America a long time ago would have found a way to be friends with Iran. Iran would be friendly with Israel. And the Arabs would be the great evil.
Assad isn't Christian, the Alawites are a Shia Muslim religious group with some limited pre-Islamic elements. And America's support for Israel predates the current schism with Iran, which happened as a result of the Islamic Revolution that itself wasn't about Israel (it happened mainly because Jimmy Carter pressured the Shah into being less brutal with domestic Islamists, who could easily have been crushed but were instead in many cases released from prison, allowed to join the burgeoning student movement, start papers and opposition groups etc from early 1977).
Ok you are right on them being Shia. But I still think my point holds that we would be allies with them if Iran had more oil. Our backing of the Saudis seems to be the real thing that continues to keep Iran/America apart.
They also had some legitimate gripes that Iran barely benefitted from their oil and what they did get went to the elites. It improved before the revolution but their was a time when BP was paying an absurd 2% royalty.
It is right, and there is a reason Obama tried so hard to reorient US Middle Eastern policy towards a reconciliation with Iran. If US foreign policy was devised by an insular diplomatic corps who only had US interests in mind, this would have happened decades ago. Alas, there are certain groups who are very good at wielding the US foreign policy apparatus for the benefit of their ethnic group.
And yet, strangely, the vast majority of the voters who are members of the group in question voted for Obama. And against Trump. It's quite the conundrum.
Not really. There are very few American Jews and they aren't an important voting block. Majority of them are Americans first and foremost and become more assimilated every passing generation. The power of the Zionist lobby has nothing to do with their voting power, but their power to influence elite discourse and institutions.
That is not the point. The point is that if treating Iran as an enemy is truly about serving the interests of Jewish people, one would expect that Jewish voters would reward candidates who treat Iran as an enemy, and punish candidates who seek reconciliation with Iran. Yet, the opposite happened.
If you now want to distinguish between Zionists and Jewush people, fine. That is obviously true. But you made a claim about an ethnic group, and Zionists are not an ethnic group.
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Notes -
Its been quite an interesting couple years. The Israel-Palestine conflict is by far the most complicated Geo-Political conflict of modern times, and there's really no good answer to how this will end. Even the best outcomes have incredible downsides. While there's much to say about the specifics of the conflict, I wanted to focus on a couple of general observations around the discourse about both this war and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Does anyone else notice that the majority of online discourse about these foreign wars are often made as if they are being played out in some RTS video game? I see many takes that suggest that due to Israels military superiority, Hamas complete and utter destruction is simply inevitable, and will come swiftly once Israel deploys their infantry into Gaza. Does this not completely stand in the way of all prior evidence and attempts by far greater military powers to dismantle extremist terrorism in their territories? America controlled Afghanistan for twenty years and was still unable to dismantle the Taliban, and once they left they quickly took power in the region again. That's not even considering the actual logistical problems of waging an all out offensive within a dense, urban population of millions of people. I feel that war has become such an impossibility in the West that we have really lost the script on what it really entails.
On the rhetorical side of the debate, I find that Leftists are generally split between which side of the conflict they are supporting. Many of the hardline leftists are explicitly pro-Palestine, while more moderate leftists are explicitly pro Israel. It's not fallacious to say that if any minority group in America faced the same legal and administrative discrimination's that Palestinians face in Israel, they would call it a crime against humanity. Palestinians have quite strict guidelines on where they live, where they can work, are not granted Citizenship by birthright, and don't even have freedom of movement between Gaza and the West bank. The irony of Leftists supporting Israel while simultaneously blaming America for having systemic,institutional prejudices is not lost on me.
The only thing complicated about Israel is the Jews are involved. And they matter. If it was two ethnics groups fighting in Africa they would have just ended on side and the issue ends. Syria was just as complicated. But nobody cares that much and Assad was allowed to do what was necessary to put down rebellion without the same concern about the majority impoverished Muslims.
Sometimes I feel like we don’t even frame these wars correctly. Everything boils down to Iran versus Arabs and not as much Jews versus Muslims when figuring out why America is backing one side versus the other. Because the US backing Assad the Christian rule (who was a little neoliberal) always seemed like a more natural ally for the US.
If oil deposits had been arranged differently and Iran had more oil than the Arabs then America a long time ago would have found a way to be friends with Iran. Iran would be friendly with Israel. And the Arabs would be the great evil.
Assad isn't Christian, the Alawites are a Shia Muslim religious group with some limited pre-Islamic elements. And America's support for Israel predates the current schism with Iran, which happened as a result of the Islamic Revolution that itself wasn't about Israel (it happened mainly because Jimmy Carter pressured the Shah into being less brutal with domestic Islamists, who could easily have been crushed but were instead in many cases released from prison, allowed to join the burgeoning student movement, start papers and opposition groups etc from early 1977).
Ok you are right on them being Shia. But I still think my point holds that we would be allies with them if Iran had more oil. Our backing of the Saudis seems to be the real thing that continues to keep Iran/America apart.
They also had some legitimate gripes that Iran barely benefitted from their oil and what they did get went to the elites. It improved before the revolution but their was a time when BP was paying an absurd 2% royalty.
This says that Iran has the world's third largest proven oil reserves. Is it wrong?
It is right, and there is a reason Obama tried so hard to reorient US Middle Eastern policy towards a reconciliation with Iran. If US foreign policy was devised by an insular diplomatic corps who only had US interests in mind, this would have happened decades ago. Alas, there are certain groups who are very good at wielding the US foreign policy apparatus for the benefit of their ethnic group.
And yet, strangely, the vast majority of the voters who are members of the group in question voted for Obama. And against Trump. It's quite the conundrum.
Not really. There are very few American Jews and they aren't an important voting block. Majority of them are Americans first and foremost and become more assimilated every passing generation. The power of the Zionist lobby has nothing to do with their voting power, but their power to influence elite discourse and institutions.
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