naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
It is a bit lame to post a twitter link and say I agree with it, but this piece resonates with me so much that I wanted to share it here. I still believe this place is majority composed of reasonable people, notwithstanding the couple of accounts that has spent the last couple of weeks plotting genocide scenarios and reliving their war on terror "they hate us for our freedoms" high one last time.
To delve deeper into the uncomfortable topic of the looming genocide, I also increasingly get the feeling that contrary to the expectations of some whose view of geopolitics is eerily similar to RTS mechanics, the genocidal military power IDF is displaying right now is ultimately going to harm Israel a lot more than it helps. I think it mainly has to do with political/military leadership trying to cover their ass and muffle their enormous failures with the sound of bombs. If IDF really goes through with their plan which seems likely to cost civilian lives in the hundreds of thousands, I don't think the nation of Israel will ever recover from this.
It is a country that is already losing two of its most powerful weapons:
Endlessly idealistic and intelligent Ashkenazi founders who knew to out-think and out-work their opponents at very turn, and most importantly to not lose the sight of their goal even when they had to take very nasty decisions at times: to create a people. Not to destroy one. These people are not only losing out in demography but also they are losing the soul of the nation. Their spirit will not survive a Gazan genocide.
Zionist influence in the Western world. Through a combination of dedication, money, human quality, well-crafted propaganda, historical guilt and Cold War positioning, Zionists has always had a very unique power position in Western institutions, especially the US ones. This is quickly disappearing. Western Jews are assimilating into the PMC deracinated blob at a breathtaking pace. They are losing the set of assumptions that motivated them to identify with their kin in Israel, and they are losing the power that comes from ethnic favoritism. A Gazan genocide is very likely going to be the final nail in the coffin here.
I fully agree that the situation with Gaza is entirely unsustainable. But if Israelis go through with what they are plotting right now, they will slowly but surely find out that they are 7 million souls surviving in an ocean of half a billion through miracles, and they are pissing in the miracle potion.
I think Israel will do just fine with «if you kill your enemies, you win» logic.
As Netanyahu (easily an intellectual and moral peer to those founders) has said five years ago:
PM Netanyahu: Shimon aspired toward peace but he knew that true peace can be achieved only if our hands strongly grasp defensive weaponry. In the Middle East, and in many parts of the world, there is a simple truth: There is no place for the weak.
The weak crumble, are slaughtered and are erased from history while the strong, for good or for ill, survive. The strong are respected, and alliances are made with the strong, and in the end peace is made with the strong.
There's only one problem with this: Israel is fairly dependent on the outside community for support. They can't afford to turn into a pariah state by ethnically cleansing Palestinians from Gaza.
Here's the solution (if the problem ever presents itself): Diaspora members commit to obstruct hiring for "supporters of Hamas" and nobody makes Israel a pariah state. Indians are already aware of this technique.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible. Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West which is why Israel hasn't been able to solve the problem despite decades of conflict, and this is showing no likelihood of change anytime soon.
At this point I don't know if you're joking or not.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible.
Except it looks that they are, the storm of doxxing, deplatforming and cancelling everyone showing the slightest sympathy to Hamas is impressive, not even non-binary persons of color are spared this time.
Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West
Not any more. Peak Palestine moment was probably the Second Intifada, around the time of "Battle of Jenin", this objectively rather minor affair was at the time headline news worldwide and treated like new Stalingrad battle.
The Palestine moment is over, expect Palestinian symbols and sympathizers to be treated like Nazi ones (no, this does not mean being celebrated by Canadian parliament).
The Harvard doxxing truck isn't evidence of much since it was condemned by most people on campus, including the Harvard Hillel. People have been giving Israel a pass due to the warcrimes of Hamas like the decapitated babies, but that'll end in a few news cycles when there's been nothing but story after story of Israel pounding Gaza.
For every story of the West being pro-Israel, there's another one saying they shouldn't go too far or that they've lost sympathy altogether. Unless we have solid data (not mere anecdotes) showing decisive long-term shifts one way or the other, we should default to assuming events will roughly follow the status quo.
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Notes -
https://x.com/Ike_Saul/status/1711780282725011520
It is a bit lame to post a twitter link and say I agree with it, but this piece resonates with me so much that I wanted to share it here. I still believe this place is majority composed of reasonable people, notwithstanding the couple of accounts that has spent the last couple of weeks plotting genocide scenarios and reliving their war on terror "they hate us for our freedoms" high one last time.
To delve deeper into the uncomfortable topic of the looming genocide, I also increasingly get the feeling that contrary to the expectations of some whose view of geopolitics is eerily similar to RTS mechanics, the genocidal military power IDF is displaying right now is ultimately going to harm Israel a lot more than it helps. I think it mainly has to do with political/military leadership trying to cover their ass and muffle their enormous failures with the sound of bombs. If IDF really goes through with their plan which seems likely to cost civilian lives in the hundreds of thousands, I don't think the nation of Israel will ever recover from this.
It is a country that is already losing two of its most powerful weapons:
I fully agree that the situation with Gaza is entirely unsustainable. But if Israelis go through with what they are plotting right now, they will slowly but surely find out that they are 7 million souls surviving in an ocean of half a billion through miracles, and they are pissing in the miracle potion.
I think Israel will do just fine with «if you kill your enemies, you win» logic.
As Netanyahu (easily an intellectual and moral peer to those founders) has said five years ago:
There's only one problem with this: Israel is fairly dependent on the outside community for support. They can't afford to turn into a pariah state by ethnically cleansing Palestinians from Gaza.
Here's the solution (if the problem ever presents itself): Diaspora members commit to obstruct hiring for "supporters of Hamas" and nobody makes Israel a pariah state. Indians are already aware of this technique.
Diaspora Jews are neither monolithic enough nor centrally coordinated enough to make this feasible. Palestinians have a nontrivial amount of support in the West which is why Israel hasn't been able to solve the problem despite decades of conflict, and this is showing no likelihood of change anytime soon.
At this point I don't know if you're joking or not.
Except it looks that they are, the storm of doxxing, deplatforming and cancelling everyone showing the slightest sympathy to Hamas is impressive, not even non-binary persons of color are spared this time.
Not any more. Peak Palestine moment was probably the Second Intifada, around the time of "Battle of Jenin", this objectively rather minor affair was at the time headline news worldwide and treated like new Stalingrad battle.
Since then, Palestine cause was downgraded and now the gloves are coming off. France bans pro-Palestinian protests and Germany promises crackdown on burning Israeli flag.
The Palestine moment is over, expect Palestinian symbols and sympathizers to be treated like Nazi ones (no, this does not mean being celebrated by Canadian parliament).
edit: links
The Harvard doxxing truck isn't evidence of much since it was condemned by most people on campus, including the Harvard Hillel. People have been giving Israel a pass due to the warcrimes of Hamas like the decapitated babies, but that'll end in a few news cycles when there's been nothing but story after story of Israel pounding Gaza.
For every story of the West being pro-Israel, there's another one saying they shouldn't go too far or that they've lost sympathy altogether. Unless we have solid data (not mere anecdotes) showing decisive long-term shifts one way or the other, we should default to assuming events will roughly follow the status quo.
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