naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
I don't know what the odds are, but I think you are over-indexing to what Hezbollah's leadership (communicating with Iran et al) decides to do, and failing to consider their need to maintain credibility among their own rank and file and the world of angry Muslims more generally. Obviously they are trying to judge whether it is strategically advantageous to get involved and when; but they also need to maintain their support within and outside their organization, which may require that they get involved in order to show toughness and preserve honor.
A major war against Israel where Hezbollah sits around with their thumbs up their asses would torpedo Hezbollah's credibility as a resistance organization, everyone would look at them as chicken hawks, losers who are never going to do anything. Money, credibility, and enthusiastic recruits would flow towards alternative organizations. Their espirit de corpse might be permanently crippled by shame and a general feeling of "well, it's never gonna happen, so we're just here to hang around and collect a paycheck." I know way too little about Hezbollah to responsibly speculate, but if enough of the young firebrands want to get involved badly enough, and the old men in charge stay in the way long enough, Hezbollah may face internal turmoil. Breakaway groups or violent takeover attempts.
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Notes -
What are the odds of Hezbollah getting involved?
On the one hand, Hezbollah was mighty pissed about the hospital bombing and declared a ‘day of unprecedented rage’, whatever that’s supposed to be. Also a suspicious number of countries have requested their citizens leave Lebanon right now, and Hezbollah is AIUI the biggest threat to anyone in Lebanon. Finally, Israeli dithering on the ground invasion indicates they expect someone to intervene and Hezbollah is probably their biggest threat(that they’re not actually at war with).
On the other hand, you’d think Hezbollah would be doing something already if they were going to do it. There’s also a U.S. navy task force in standoff range, and Hezbollah seems just a tad smarter/more strategic than other terrorist orgs.
Finally, what are the implications of Hezbollah were to invade? They control most of Lebanon but not the whole thing- there are government controlled areas and places under other varieties of armed nut. Can Israel fight a two front war on its lonesome or would they be reliant on assisting Hezbollah’s enemies within Lebanon, and does Hezbollah have the ability to call up its allies if the IDF really puts it in a bind(that is, does it kick off an escalation spiral)?
I don't know what the odds are, but I think you are over-indexing to what Hezbollah's leadership (communicating with Iran et al) decides to do, and failing to consider their need to maintain credibility among their own rank and file and the world of angry Muslims more generally. Obviously they are trying to judge whether it is strategically advantageous to get involved and when; but they also need to maintain their support within and outside their organization, which may require that they get involved in order to show toughness and preserve honor.
A major war against Israel where Hezbollah sits around with their thumbs up their asses would torpedo Hezbollah's credibility as a resistance organization, everyone would look at them as chicken hawks, losers who are never going to do anything. Money, credibility, and enthusiastic recruits would flow towards alternative organizations. Their espirit de corpse might be permanently crippled by shame and a general feeling of "well, it's never gonna happen, so we're just here to hang around and collect a paycheck." I know way too little about Hezbollah to responsibly speculate, but if enough of the young firebrands want to get involved badly enough, and the old men in charge stay in the way long enough, Hezbollah may face internal turmoil. Breakaway groups or violent takeover attempts.
“esprit de corpse” is an excellent typo. Almost up there with “locust of control.”
Accidental but appropriate.
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