naraburns nihil supernum
3yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
This seems like a "debunking" with real "We Did It Reddit!" energy. The video I've seen of the actual crater does not appear in any plausible way the result of an "airstrike."
Both the misfire hypothesis & the airstrike hypothesis hold equal weight.
This strikes me as complete FUD. Every claim I've seen suggesting this was anything other than Hamas weaponry (whether as a false flag or just incompetence, who knows) appears primarily based on "but I want it to have been Israel, so let's imagine the possibilities, shall we?"
Incorrect; I think you are thinking of thermobaric explosives which use a big charge to create a vacuum and subsequent very impressive shockwave.
Most airburst ap munitions have (relativly) not a lot of explosive force. What they do have is elventybajillion hypersonic fragments to fuck up squishy things. I don't know what the IDF uses; but some of them are even directional.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
DBDr 3yr ago
Any reasonable amount of high explosive would have smashed a lot more windows just from the shock wave. And if that didn't do it, those eleventy-bajillion hypersonic fragments in an anti-personnel airburst would have. That's why I scoffed about a grenade; it's the only way you're getting an airburst munition down to little enough damage. Though that would have been TOO small and wouldn't have resulted in the roof damage. The damage doesn't match that kind of explosive. There's blast damage, but it it looks to have been from a fairly low-detonation-pressure blast. And there's shrapnel, but not enough for an anti-personnel weapon large enough to have that kind of blast. There's heat damage; tires on cars not right at the epicenter are flat, probably from melting. Also the videos show a bright fireball. It looks to me like a fairly small, slow, explosion not far off the ground (perhaps at 2nd story level, directly over the most damaged cars) which spread some sort of burning substance. I don't know if Israel has weapons which match that pattern, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for a malfunctioning rocket.
The actual orgs doing the investigation have tentatively ruled out the misfired rocket idea 'cause of the direction and angle it came in from, but it's vague now.
Re. specifics: HE needs a pretty big volume to smash windows at a distance, specially in an open area. The shockwave just isn't that powerful when it detonates in the air. Fragments from a purpose built device are direcitonal, they all go down the bottom arc. It's probably not that though because we'd see photos of swisscheese side panels on cars and such
The sound of a jet corresponding to the hospital blast surely counts as moderate evidence in favor of an Israeli airstrike. The remnants of the intercepted rocket still being visible in the air post-blast is strong, novel evidence against the blast having to do with the intercepted rocket. It’s only ~72 hours after the event in question, so new information is not FUD. FUD would be if someone were to imply something like, “let’s not consider any new information, the previous narrative is just too compelling”.
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Notes -
This seems like a "debunking" with real "We Did It Reddit!" energy. The video I've seen of the actual crater does not appear in any plausible way the result of an "airstrike."
This strikes me as complete FUD. Every claim I've seen suggesting this was anything other than Hamas weaponry (whether as a false flag or just incompetence, who knows) appears primarily based on "but I want it to have been Israel, so let's imagine the possibilities, shall we?"
The American Press are stenographers for terrorists is a much more parsimonious response to this particular series of events.
Airburst munitions don't leave much of a crater. The large fireball in the video further supports this type of weapon.
Airburst munitions would have blown out every window in the area.
Incorrect; I think you are thinking of thermobaric explosives which use a big charge to create a vacuum and subsequent very impressive shockwave.
Most airburst ap munitions have (relativly) not a lot of explosive force. What they do have is elventybajillion hypersonic fragments to fuck up squishy things. I don't know what the IDF uses; but some of them are even directional.
Any reasonable amount of high explosive would have smashed a lot more windows just from the shock wave. And if that didn't do it, those eleventy-bajillion hypersonic fragments in an anti-personnel airburst would have. That's why I scoffed about a grenade; it's the only way you're getting an airburst munition down to little enough damage. Though that would have been TOO small and wouldn't have resulted in the roof damage. The damage doesn't match that kind of explosive. There's blast damage, but it it looks to have been from a fairly low-detonation-pressure blast. And there's shrapnel, but not enough for an anti-personnel weapon large enough to have that kind of blast. There's heat damage; tires on cars not right at the epicenter are flat, probably from melting. Also the videos show a bright fireball. It looks to me like a fairly small, slow, explosion not far off the ground (perhaps at 2nd story level, directly over the most damaged cars) which spread some sort of burning substance. I don't know if Israel has weapons which match that pattern, but it doesn't seem unreasonable for a malfunctioning rocket.
We'll see.
The actual orgs doing the investigation have tentatively ruled out the misfired rocket idea 'cause of the direction and angle it came in from, but it's vague now.
Re. specifics: HE needs a pretty big volume to smash windows at a distance, specially in an open area. The shockwave just isn't that powerful when it detonates in the air. Fragments from a purpose built device are direcitonal, they all go down the bottom arc. It's probably not that though because we'd see photos of swisscheese side panels on cars and such
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Now you're suggesting a grenade?
No, most bombs are airburst. You don’t waste half your energy on the pavement unless you are trying to pierce a bunker.
I would not put much stake in amateur photo forensics.
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Behold! A JDAM (pictured on right) with a DSU-33 airburst fuse.
Yeah, it wasn't one of those either.
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The sound of a jet corresponding to the hospital blast surely counts as moderate evidence in favor of an Israeli airstrike. The remnants of the intercepted rocket still being visible in the air post-blast is strong, novel evidence against the blast having to do with the intercepted rocket. It’s only ~72 hours after the event in question, so new information is not FUD. FUD would be if someone were to imply something like, “let’s not consider any new information, the previous narrative is just too compelling”.
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