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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   28717 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 23, 2023

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Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says

Russia is executing soldiers who try to retreat from a bloody offensive in eastern Ukraine, the White House has said. According to the US, some of the casualties suffered by Russia near Avdiivka were "on the orders of their own leaders".

Russian and Ukrainian troops have been locked into a fierce battle for the frontline town since mid-October. Russia is thought to have suffered "significant" losses in this time. Ukrainian estimates put the number of Russian casualties in Avdiivka at 5,000, while the US says that Russia lost "at least" 125 armoured vehicles and more than a battalion's worth of equipment.

Do you believe the primary claim in this article (from the Pentagon)? If so, or if not, why? If you think the claim is a lie, do you think it originates with American or Ukrainian propagandists. If you think the claim is true, do you think Russia’s actions are likely to have a positive or negative effect on Russian troop morale moving forward?

I’m interested in how our prejudices and priors developed over the last year and half of this war - and more generally - affect our judgment when we hear stories reporting by one side like this. What would it take for you to believe or disbelieve the claim?

Not knowing anything else and not monitoring OSINT, my guess is that a few small isolated cases of execution (or even a single case) have been signal boosted by the White House and portrayed as if they are happening en masse.

So yes, this is likely to have happened (in small, isolated cases), but via propaganda it is made to seem if it is widespread and a policy of high command. I'm guessing 'their own leaders' is meant to portray senior strategic command leadership but actually just means NCO's or small unit leaders (lieutenants/captains etc) acting under their own steam.

Whether it originates with Ukraine or the US is kind of irrelevant. I believe the US knows exactly how accurate the reports are and is complicit in authorising what is likely to be exaggerated propaganda.

If you think the claim is true, do you think Russia’s actions are likely to have a positive or negative effect on Russian troop morale moving forward?

Negative effect. There might be short term benefits at the level of the units where this took place, but when word gets out among the Russians that they're shooting their own men it would send morale into the toilet. That's why this is being signal boosted in the first place. However, there's a big 'if' as to whether Russian soldiers would even believe it. If I was a Russian, I would be fairly inoculated to propaganda by this point.

What would it take for you to believe or disbelieve the claim?

I don't have a dog in this fight and I'm not pro-Russian, but basically a consensus in the OSINT community that this happened en masse and not just in a couple of isolated cases.

edit: a couple of words for clarity

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