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Notes -
Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says
Do you believe the primary claim in this article (from the Pentagon)? If so, or if not, why? If you think the claim is a lie, do you think it originates with American or Ukrainian propagandists. If you think the claim is true, do you think Russia’s actions are likely to have a positive or negative effect on Russian troop morale moving forward?
I’m interested in how our prejudices and priors developed over the last year and half of this war - and more generally - affect our judgment when we hear stories reporting by one side like this. What would it take for you to believe or disbelieve the claim?
Over the past year and a half, I have come to believe virtually every awful thing I hear about Russia, with the added tint that I also assume the reality is probably worse than the reports. I have also come to disbelieve nearly every positive AND negative thing I hear about Ukraine. Their true identity has been completely obliterated for me by propaganda from both directions. A lot of this is formed by my opinions of the people who make arguments that I have heard in-person. My pro-Russian friends are always twisting themselves into knots to defend Russia, and are otherwise so captured by conspiracy theories that their default fallback position is that everything is fake and we are close to living in a simulation. As a natural contrarian, I feel like I see right through their contrarianism on this one. For the vocal pro-Ukranians -- I myself am pro-Ukranian in this conflict but have a dim view of the country otherwise -- they just sound like, and I hate this term, NPCs. That is, I don't sense a coherent worldview behind their Ukranian fanboying, they are just waving the flag because they're caught in a social contagion.
I think just as a matter of mental hygiene, I tend to doubt anything put out that perfectly pattern matches the narrative as those telling that story need me to believe. And thus I tend to doubt the literal version of this being a policy. There are, undoubtedly individuals who were shot for desertion. I’ve no doubt that we have done the same thing in our wars. But it’s meant specifically to create the impression that of course Russia is losing and demoralized and if we just keep up the pressure, the plucky Ukrainians will drive them out.
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Chances of someone wanking too much on their Warhammer commissar fantasies?
Someone in the White House press team, or someone in the Russian officer corps?
Yes
Truly, we live in the grimmest, dankest timeline.
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Worth noting that at this scale many things happened. And it is hard to distinguish between "something unique happened single time and we have proof of it" and "something is happening routinely, intentionally and ordered".
There is difference between "single specific soldier was summarily executed for disobeying orders" and "anyone who retreats is executed", with wide variety of stuff between.
The same goes for many different things.
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I was under the impression that summary execution for desertion is standard operating procedure for Russia. There is video of Prigozhin telling potential Wagner recruits they will shot on sight if they desert.
Russian morale will continue to reside in the toilet, as it always does.
Wagner recruits from prisons, service for freedom. Civilian volunteers may get more sympathy.
Russia has an active, formal draft and has been reported to use informal press gangs which we can presume are not targeting respectable citizens. ‘Civilian volunteer’ is probably not a great descriptor of the median Russian soldier.
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The Russian army recruits from prisons as well and now that Wagner no longer is a thing in Ukraine they're the only ones that do so.
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Do I believe it? No, and I assume that it originates from NAFO (American/EU pro-Ukraine propaganda) Twitter, who have also been implying that the Russians are using WWII era GAZ-AA trucks in the assault. The latter sort of obviously ridiculous claims (Sourcing WWII era trucks would be vastly harder and more expensive than just breaking some cold war era trucks out of storage, commandeering civilian trucks, or just resorting to pickup trucks.) lead me to dismiss anything they say out of hand, along with the fact that Z-Twitter hasn't even bothered to try refuting them. I'd believe it if I saw broad swathes of Z Twitter complaining about the Russians doing it and/or compelling video evidence that I didn't think was staged.
More broadly, and I say this as an American that neither reads Russian or spends time combing through Telegram, IMO Twitter (which is mostly posts from Americans and Europeans, not Russians or Ukrainians) from either side provides information of limited utility. There's been an assault on Avdiivka, it hasn't yet succeeded or been called off, and beyond that who knows. I suspect that it's been a bloody slog given that Avdiivka has been an uncrackable nut for the Russians since day one. Endless videos from both sides of equipment or men being blown up may be emotionally gratifying but they don't tell much by themselves other than that this or that piece of equipment has been deployed.
More broadly than the above, I suspect that, if ever, we'll get good books with accurate information at least ten and probably twenty or more years from now after it's all over. I expect that the Pentagon, if they have better numbers than they're giving (which appear to be regurgitations from the Ukrianian MOD, who are as unreliable/prone to exaggerated kill counts as the Russian MOD and frankly every MOD in history), are keeping them classified. As of now, I have little idea of what to think of the Avdiivka assault. We'll know whether or not it succeeds or doesn't in taking the place in due time and beyond that I can't judge the rationales of either side because I don't know the real manpower/casualty situation for either side. My best guess is that the Russians achieved some initial surprise, failed to translate that into quick victory, and have been reduced to another attritional slog. Whether it's worth pursuing as the Russians appear to be or not depends on factors I don't know.
Edit: In a not surprising development, the lower quality pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian Twitters are also liable to posting absolute garbage concerning the Israel/Palestine conflict.
We've seen both sides break out some fucking old hardware (Maxim guns with Holosuns!), you really think a WWII-era vehicle that isn't a tank or a troop carrier is getting into Fantasyland territory?
Maxim guns are a bit unique as for some purposes (immobile defence) they remain among optimal choices.
GAZ-AA trucks are not and it was based on videos where said vehicle is about 4 pixels wide. This GAZ claims were twitterati nonsense, like predictions about wide use it T-34 tanks (because T-34 are actually harder to obtain than modern ones).
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I have seen video footage of Russian conscripts being shot by their own after retreating in Ukraine, some of it released by proud Russians on Telegram!
It was around six months ago, so not the current offensive, but my priors for that being a regular tactic to "motivate" mobiks or even regulars is high indeed.
Same. Whether or not this specific claim is true, it's certainly plausible.
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Reading your post, I gave it maybe 50:50 odds of being true. Reading the cspan source below, I’m adjusting that to 99:1 odds of being untrue.
Aside from the reference to the current battle in the first sentence, this has every buzzword from the standard Ukrainian narrative I’ve read a thousand times over the past two years. Russians executing their own soldiers. Human wave. Untrained. Under equipped. Massive RU casualties. Etc. I see nothing of value here.
I had a similar reaction. The basic situation was plausible. Then the news framing just…smells like propaganda.
I don’t think I’ll adjust down as far as you did. The odds of something happening that technically fits the description still feels pretty high.
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It's likely to be true in limited cases, although unlikely to be widespread since nothing in the statement indicated it was such. I wouldn't be surprised if some limited cases also happened on the UA side here and there, although it'd almost certainly be even less prevalent than the times it happened on the RU side.
It has a negative effect, but that's already baked in pretty hard at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if it's happening mostly to the convicts, in which case the regular soldiers could feel a modicum of safety since it's only happening to a lower class of soldiers.
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This propaganda has been circulating from both sides since early in the war. It seems unlikely considering neither side has seen mass desertions. One bit of info that seems to be missing from this more mainstream take is that there are different groups fighting in Ukraine. Usually the propaganda goes on about how professional soldiers like VDV are shooting the conscripted prisoners, or the ultra-nationalist like Azov and Kraken are shooting the recent conscripts ripped from the street. I guess if this were true then how it effects morale would be variable, as neither side is just some homogeneous group. I agree with everyone else that it's probably happened but sporadically and is exaggerated by both sides for propaganda purposes.
Right. I'm highly confident that Wagner executed some of its fighters for desertion/surrender. It wouldn't surprise me if Storm Z (whatever the Hell that is) has done the same. It wouldn't surprise me if Ukrainian ultranationalist units have done bad things to reluctant conscripts. I don't think that either the normie Russian or Ukrainian armies are shooting their own soldiers.
As long as it's well known that deserters get shot, you shouldn't need to actually shoot too many.
That is good approach to Europe southern border. I have for long time said that if we sink the boats the total lives lost in the Mediterranean will be lower than today
Probably true, but you could likely get the same effect with an Australia-style turnback policy.
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Update now that I could check the source. C-SPAN at around 15:50.
There don't appear to be subtitles yet, which is totally why none of the outlets copying an AP news release bothered to link to the broadcast. Yeah.
@badnewsbandit It looks like the journalists were accurately representing the statement. Color me surprised.
Fair. Sounds like an "if" between the "threatening to execute" and "they seek to retreat" by the way. I'd say executing for refusing to follow orders and then separately threatening unit level execution if retreating under fire are not "Russia executing own retreating soldiers" present tense happening. It's not like it'd be completely out of character for the peoples involved given Wagner and sledgehammers but still stretching. Avdiivka is a shitshow by all verifiable accounts, the exaggeration and inferences from 'information' are if anything negative value.
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I would not be surprised if Russia has carried out a few executions for "insubordination out of cowardice" or something of the sort. However, as a regular occurrence, it didn't happen, it's not happening, and the US and especially Ukraine are greatly exaggerating Russian casualty figures.
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I neither believe it nor disbelieve it. If it turned out to be true, I would not be surprised in the least bit. Nor would I be surprised in the least bit if it turned out that the claim was completely made up.
Pretty much the only information that I trust a lot in this war is information about who controls what piece of land, since that is easily confirmed by the photos and videos that each side releases when they capture something. Such photos and videos could in theory be faked, but since if you tried faking them the other side could easily release their own photos and videos showing that in fact it is they who control the land, it would be largely pointless to try to fake them.
I figure that maybe some of the so-called "OSINT" blown-up-tank-counters are trying to be objective, but I also figure that their information is not as reliable as who controls what land because who controls a given piece of land is binary, whereas on the other hand it is possible for example for one side to lose 10 tanks and the other to lose 20 in a given day, yet for there to be photos of 8 of the first side's destroyed tanks available online but only photos of 4 of the second side's destroyed tanks available online.
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I believe there have been instances in which Russians deliberately shot their own retreating troops; however I doubt it is a regular occurrence, even for their more disposable units. Simply put, if you made a regular practice of shooting retreating troops, you'd be out of an army in short order (any army disciplined and loyal enough to tolerate that sort of practice doesn't need it). Historically, barrier troops mostly swept up routing soldiers and returned them to their units.
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Not knowing anything else and not monitoring OSINT, my guess is that a few small isolated cases of execution (or even a single case) have been signal boosted by the White House and portrayed as if they are happening en masse.
So yes, this is likely to have happened (in small, isolated cases), but via propaganda it is made to seem if it is widespread and a policy of high command. I'm guessing 'their own leaders' is meant to portray senior strategic command leadership but actually just means NCO's or small unit leaders (lieutenants/captains etc) acting under their own steam.
Whether it originates with Ukraine or the US is kind of irrelevant. I believe the US knows exactly how accurate the reports are and is complicit in authorising what is likely to be exaggerated propaganda.
Negative effect. There might be short term benefits at the level of the units where this took place, but when word gets out among the Russians that they're shooting their own men it would send morale into the toilet. That's why this is being signal boosted in the first place. However, there's a big 'if' as to whether Russian soldiers would even believe it. If I was a Russian, I would be fairly inoculated to propaganda by this point.
I don't have a dog in this fight and I'm not pro-Russian, but basically a consensus in the OSINT community that this happened en masse and not just in a couple of isolated cases.
edit: a couple of words for clarity
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Nah, don’t believe it (the strong claim: mass executions for mutiny). Too “stalingrad”, especially with the ‘human wave tactics’ kicker. They’re not that desperate. Cynical, amoral, sure, but not that stupidly barbaric. Article’s claims are vague and ambiguous. My priors are both sides are lying as much as possible. If the claim looks like a trope it’s even less likely to be true.
I’ll change my mind if the other side confirms two executions pour encourager les autres. And if that happens I’ll update towards the russian army being on its last legs instead of slowly losing the attritional game.
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First thought: that WH quote would describe blue-on-blue incidents like ordering an artillery strike in an occupied zone. Very possible, as the Brits can attest, though it would be dishonest to frame it as an execution.
After actually reading the link: wow, there’s no further substance. Just additional statements from a Ukrainian official, which merit a huge shaker of salt. At the bottom we get some actual figures about foreign aid. Not that it has anything to do with the initial claim!
Hearsay without a link to the alleged statement ought to be a tort. Journalistic malpractice.
Edit: right, I feel like I should say that I do find the prospect of Russia doing actual, personal executions plausible. Military discipline can get extreme fast and I don’t think that’s outside the Overton window.
You don't even need blue-on-blue for the actual quote as presented. The first part isn't even part but to be charitable there may be a paraphrase: "[some of the casualties suffered by Russia near Avdiivka were] on the orders of their own leaders." That can just as easily be ordering troops into a situation where you know they are going to take casualties.
You don’t hate journalists enough. You think you do but you don’t.
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