naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #3
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
One general observation, not directly connected to middle eastern affairs, but not entirely unconnected.
Big Twitter OSINT accounts watching Ukraine war are being deleted, one by one. Including the big one, the master of the lists, Oryx.
The reason given (if any is given) is that they are "too tired", that they are dirt poor and their work will not make them any money, that Pentagon and CIA keep profiting from their effort - and it is more threadbare than "dog ate my homework" excuse from your school days.
These people claimed to be hobbyists, observing wars in Syria and Ukraine just from pure interest and rejected with contempt any suspicions that they are something else, that they are somewhat connected to US/NATO military and three letter organization.
Not implausible in itself - bird watchers and train spotters dedicate their lives to their passion without being paid by Big Bird or Big Rail, and war can be nearly as interesting and fascinating.
Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique. You will not see rail fan threatening to smash his model trains and throw away his collections if railroad company does not pay him, and then following on his threat. But you will easily see paid employee closing down his office and shredding his archives when his rail branch is closed and he is reassigned to other work elsewhere.
So what to expect? If the dead bird site is true reality and material world just follows what happens there, we can expect that the whole Ukraine affair is going to wind down, all the way to (official or unofficial) cease fire, and all "happenings" will be once again happening in the Middle East.
Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique. You will not see rail fan threatening to smash his model trains and throw away his collections if railroad company does not pay him, and then following on his threat. But you will easily see paid employee closing down his office and shredding his archives when his rail branch is closed and he is reassigned to other work elsewhere.
I would take this more seriously if I hadn't seen some very talented and prolific video game modders delete all of their work in a fit of pique. It does happen, not that I have a strong opinion of whether that's the case in the OSINT community.
Edit: It literally happened again in Total War Warhammer 3. The creator is (justifiably) mad at the game dev, but they've decided to express that by halting work on their mods and even promising to take them down soon. At least they're letting others continue their work.
Edit: It literally happened again in Total War Warhammer 3. The creator is (justifiably) mad at the game dev, but they've decided to express that by halting work on their mods and even promising to take them down soon. At least they're letting others continue their work.
I stand corrected, it is possible that several major OSINT accounts just burned out and decided to shut it down at the same time.
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Notes -
One general observation, not directly connected to middle eastern affairs, but not entirely unconnected.
Big Twitter OSINT accounts watching Ukraine war are being deleted, one by one. Including the big one, the master of the lists, Oryx.
The reason given (if any is given) is that they are "too tired", that they are dirt poor and their work will not make them any money, that Pentagon and CIA keep profiting from their effort - and it is more threadbare than "dog ate my homework" excuse from your school days.
These people claimed to be hobbyists, observing wars in Syria and Ukraine just from pure interest and rejected with contempt any suspicions that they are something else, that they are somewhat connected to US/NATO military and three letter organization.
Not implausible in itself - bird watchers and train spotters dedicate their lives to their passion without being paid by Big Bird or Big Rail, and war can be nearly as interesting and fascinating.
Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique. You will not see rail fan threatening to smash his model trains and throw away his collections if railroad company does not pay him, and then following on his threat. But you will easily see paid employee closing down his office and shredding his archives when his rail branch is closed and he is reassigned to other work elsewhere.
So what to expect? If the dead bird site is true reality and material world just follows what happens there, we can expect that the whole Ukraine affair is going to wind down, all the way to (official or unofficial) cease fire, and all "happenings" will be once again happening in the Middle East.
I would take this more seriously if I hadn't seen some very talented and prolific video game modders delete all of their work in a fit of pique. It does happen, not that I have a strong opinion of whether that's the case in the OSINT community.
Edit: It literally happened again in Total War Warhammer 3. The creator is (justifiably) mad at the game dev, but they've decided to express that by halting work on their mods and even promising to take them down soon. At least they're letting others continue their work.
I stand corrected, it is possible that several major OSINT accounts just burned out and decided to shut it down at the same time.
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