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naraburns  nihil supernum  6mo ago (text post)   12705 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #3

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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One general observation, not directly connected to middle eastern affairs, but not entirely unconnected.

Big Twitter OSINT accounts watching Ukraine war are being deleted, one by one. Including the big one, the master of the lists, Oryx.

The reason given (if any is given) is that they are "too tired", that they are dirt poor and their work will not make them any money, that Pentagon and CIA keep profiting from their effort - and it is more threadbare than "dog ate my homework" excuse from your school days.

These people claimed to be hobbyists, observing wars in Syria and Ukraine just from pure interest and rejected with contempt any suspicions that they are something else, that they are somewhat connected to US/NATO military and three letter organization.

Not implausible in itself - bird watchers and train spotters dedicate their lives to their passion without being paid by Big Bird or Big Rail, and war can be nearly as interesting and fascinating.

Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique. You will not see rail fan threatening to smash his model trains and throw away his collections if railroad company does not pay him, and then following on his threat. But you will easily see paid employee closing down his office and shredding his archives when his rail branch is closed and he is reassigned to other work elsewhere.

So what to expect? If the dead bird site is true reality and material world just follows what happens there, we can expect that the whole Ukraine affair is going to wind down, all the way to (official or unofficial) cease fire, and all "happenings" will be once again happening in the Middle East.

Including the big one, the master of the lists, Oryx.

Oryx gave announcement months in advance and alternative maintainers were found.

Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique.

It happened many times with exposure-focused hobbyists. Especially with writers.

Also, Oryx website is up last time I checked, they terminated only dead bird account and started doing other stuff.

Except that hobbyist will not destroy his life work in a fit of pique. You will not see rail fan threatening to smash his model trains and throw away his collections if railroad company does not pay him, and then following on his threat. But you will easily see paid employee closing down his office and shredding his archives when his rail branch is closed and he is reassigned to other work elsewhere.

I would take this more seriously if I hadn't seen some very talented and prolific video game modders delete all of their work in a fit of pique. It does happen, not that I have a strong opinion of whether that's the case in the OSINT community.

Edit: It literally happened again in Total War Warhammer 3. The creator is (justifiably) mad at the game dev, but they've decided to express that by halting work on their mods and even promising to take them down soon. At least they're letting others continue their work.

Edit: It literally happened again in Total War Warhammer 3. The creator is (justifiably) mad at the game dev, but they've decided to express that by halting work on their mods and even promising to take them down soon. At least they're letting others continue their work.

I stand corrected, it is possible that several major OSINT accounts just burned out and decided to shut it down at the same time.

And even Zelensky has shut his mouth lately. Could be that the tide is turning in favor of russia.

Could be that the tide is turning in favor of russia.

We do not know.

We (for value of "we" consisting of open source users) can have good idea about Russian overall strength and losses, because Russia is decrepit gangster shithole open and free society that is incapable of keeping secrets and leakes info like sieve.

In contrast, Ukraine is black hole, fully proficient in OPSEC. Very little info comes out, as Teixeira leaks show, even Pentagon relies on official Ukrainian (and Oryx) data in their analysis.

Whatever you say about SBU, they know their work, they are true heirs of Cheka, NKVD and KGB, they deserve the Dzerzhinsky statue kept by Petrov and Boshirov clown team.

edit: link

“It’s a day that ends in Y, could be the tide turning in favor of Russia!”

Do you mean the tide of the war, or the tide of public opinion?

"Tide of public opinion" was creation of mass media that decided in Feb 2022 to play up this war as much as possible (instead of ignoring it like, for example, contemporary war in Ethiopia)

We can imagine alternate world where, on February 24, newspapers of record dedicated front pages to latest controversy about drag queens and somewhere on corner of page six was report:

KIEV: Today, Russian forces crossed border of Ukraine in territory disputed between Russia and Ukraine.

Situation is unclear, some local sources report about fights between Russian army and Ukrainian militias.

Russian government says it is involved in limited operation against Jewish Nazi Satanist homosexual terrorists based in disputed territory, and claims it holds no aggressive intent against Ukraine.

Ukrainian government denies presence of Jewish Nazi Satanist homosexual terrorists on Ukraine soil and denounces Russian actions as aggression against Ukraine.

World leaders call for cease-fire and negotiations between all involved parties.

In this world, only people who would be watching Ukraine would be people with relatives in the area and OSINT/war fans, "public opinion" would have different concerns.

I dunno. I kind of like it when Russia doesn’t get what it wants. Not particularly strongly, but more than I care about miscellaneous civil wars. Imagine how the Westerners who actually lived through the Cold War might feel.

Tide of public opinion" was creation of mass media that decided in Feb 2022 to play up this war as much as possible

Alternatively, "major historical enemy catastrophically fails to invade tiny neighbor" doesn't require a conspiracy to be a captivating news story.

I don't think the tide of public opinion can turn for Russia, but there is a recess from the high tide a year ago. And for the war - I have long stated that it is competition who will lose faster. Could as well be Ukraine. Especially when Ukrainian men can just have to get to one of the borders to be free of subscription

I am pretty sure that it is rather effect of media focusing less on that topic.

Indeed. I heavily doubt Zelensky is speaking less; he's a politician after all, and they never shut up. But they rely on other people to put their words in front of your eyes.

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