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Notes -
The war between the future Italian Government and the EU is beginning.
After a question by a student, the Commission President von Der Leyen, said that the EU will use "all their instruments, as happened against Hungary and Poland" against Italy in the case of "democratic backsliding".
As always, after this, accusation from every part came, with the Left defending it and the Right attacking it. Notice that von Der Leyen is part of the CDU(PPE), but their policies have always been center-left.
Apart from this phrase (von Der Leyen is not new at speaking too much with the wrong words at the wrong time), it will be noteworthy to see what will happen if Italy enter the bad boy group with Poland and Hungary, especially when also Sweden and Spain will probably see governments with the hard-right inside or at the helm.
The instrument of "follow liberal human rights or sanctions" can work against Warsaw and Budapest, but against all these countries?
What will happen will define how democracy will function in the EU, and if parties that are not part of the PPE-PSE-Liberal-Green megagroup will bow and assimilate to the center-right, or will follow the Orban line.
For now, it looks like the Italian Goverment will follow a moderate line, considering that economic recession is behind the corner and the debt is exploding again.
A few figures that might help contextualise discussion.
(1) Italy's population is 60 million, Hungary's population is 10 million
(2) Italy has a total GDP (nominal) of 1.9 trillion USD, Hungary of 155 billion USD.
(3) Italy is a net contributor to the EU to the tune of 7 billion USD per year. Hungary is a net recipient of approximately 5 billion USD per year.
Any sane organisation has ample reason to treat the two countries very differently.
Italian political establishment is set up in a way that allows for enormous EU influence through various channels, such as the ECB, Italian senate, presidency, judiciary and media. Any Italian leader planning to take on the EU needs to have a massive and dedicated supporter base, extreme political cunning, a lot of luck and balls of steel. Otherwise it’s very easy for the EU to get them Berlusconied in a matter of months and install yet another technocratic government until the people decide to vote the right way the next time. As the EU keeps doing this for many decades at this point, the rebellion movements in Italy are subject to vicious natural selection. Gone are the futuristic optimistic appeal of the five star. Or even the bumbling Salvini. Melon Iooks like she is quite real in her determination to fight. If she fails, someone even more fiery will take her place.
Hungary (and somewhat Poland) is such a hate object because the EU doesn’t have almost any control over it’s political establishment apart from cutting fiscal transfers. And that’s a very blunt instrument which would spook a lot of people.
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