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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   26691 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 20, 2023

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Yeah, I don't see Trump winning without also having control of the House and Senate, although possibly by very small margins. And the past few years both parties have been filing down the filibuster, so it's possible a Republican trifecta would eliminate it in 2025 even though they were unwilling to do so in 2017, and therefore be able to push through more legislation. Unclear a narrow majority (of either party) could actually agree on much legislation.

The most plausible 2024 senate result, full stop, is ‘narrow Republican majority’, and that means people like Collins and Murkowski have substantial negotiating power. Paths to a large Republican senate majority seem mostly implausible to me; paths to a dem majority at all seem wildly implausible.

Biden has a disqualifying senior moment, Dems are unable to replace him with a non-senile candidate, Trump landslide with coattails picking up multiple senate seats seems to me to be within the bounds of plausibility. But even with a landslide, I don't see how the Rs get to 60, which is de facto what you need for a large majority.

The reverse scenario where Trump has a disqualifying senior moment and Biden wins in a landslide probably still isn't enough for the Dems to hold the senate given how bad the map is for them.

Biden shit his pants in the process of mistaking the pope for a black man and it didn’t affect the polls, I think this election will be decided off of economic vibes.

Wait, really? When did Biden shit his pants?

I will send a laxative to anyone, anywhere in the world, who can convince me this happened.

I have proof he shit his pants! The problem is he might have been about 2 years old, but the base rate is pretty high at that age ;)

I'll be taking a macrogol laxative, you can ship it to any hospital of your choice in India, it'll save some poor doctor the headache of writing yet another prescription haha.

DM me copy of the proof toddler-Joe had diapers and everything, and I'll put your name on the shipment I send to Lions General Hospital in Chittogram, Bangladesh--otherwise, I'll put down that it's from @cjet79.

Bangladesh is entirely the wrong country, so I'm going to have to pass on the kind offer.

Yeah, but it's the only part of the subcontinent I've personally visited, and I'm not comfortable with just sending medical supplies to some place I haven't seen.

If you insist on India, I did visit the museum of the Cellular Jail on the Andaman Islands—I could try and find out if there's a hospital there, even though all I saw was the museum, a lumber mill, and a cricket pitch.

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