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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   26352 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 4, 2023

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(Mods, let me know if I need to delete this and repost in Small Questions Sunday.)

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) hears Moore v United States today. According to SCOTUSBlog, at issue is "Whether the 16th Amendment authorizes Congress to tax unrealized sums without apportionment among the states". Since that's not very helpful, I'll quote The Atlantic's summary instead:

The story of Moore starts in 2017, when President Donald Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The law aimed to minimize the incentive for U.S. corporations to hoard money overseas by reducing certain taxes on foreign earnings. But, in exchange, U.S. investors would have to pay a onetime tax on accumulated foreign profits going back several decades—the so-called transition tax. Charles and Kathleen Moore are among the Americans affected by the change. In 2006, they invested $40,000 in KisanKraft, an Indian company owned by a friend. They allege that they never received any payments from the company because all of its profits were reinvested. The transition tax nevertheless stuck the Moores with a $15,000 tax bill based on the company’s retained earnings. The Moores countered that the transition tax is unconstitutional because it exceeds Congress’s power under the Sixteenth Amendment. That amendment, ratified in 1913, explicitly empowers Congress to tax incomes. But the Moores argue that unrealized gains aren’t income at all.

Mother Jones, NPR, CBS, and Foreign Policy (of all the friggin' places) are running articles breathlessly proclaiming DOOM! for the US tax code, or at least the ability of Democrats to pass wealth tax laws. This Forbes article seems to be a pretty good explanation of what's at issue but I'll admit that I'm not well-versed enough in tax law to understand the full ramifications of what a Moore victory would mean for the ability of the federal government to raise revenue. On the other hand, I can't say I'm sad about the idea of a wealth taxes getting a bullet to the head. What am I missing or not considering as I read about this from the various outlets?

I'll come out with a prediction that Gorsuch will bite the bullet and be willing to simply follow the letter of the amendment clearly and obstinately. He is, after all, the originator of the buttfore test from Bostock, and the preeminent justice who actually thinks the federal government has to follow the treaties it has signed to the letter. If anyone will read the amendment and declare unrealized gains obviously not income and therefore not taxable, it's him.

Roberts will squish and try to legislate from the bench, saving the way congress currently taxes despite it being clearly unconstitutional and Neil saying so, but that's an easy prediction. It's in his nature, it's what he's there to do, and it's why Bush put him on the bench. Maybe he'll try to steal the opinion from Gorsuch, who would absolutely savage any existing structures if they counteract the letter of the law.

I'm sure all three opposition women will join Roberts in allowing a wealth tax, but I'm at least hopeful Kagan will have a clever excuse. I never expect cleverness from Sotomayor or Jackson, just party-line votes as a good foot soldier.

However, the rest of the conservative wing is up in the air. Kavanaugh is another squish like Roberts, and Barrett seems to be leaning the same way on anything not abortion. You'd figure Alito and Thomas would be pleased to prevent Congress from reaching its tentacles into another pot of gold, but they're also most amenable to business interests, and if the tax code would be flipped on its head due to a decision, I can see either of them ruling to delay disruption somehow in a narrower ruling.

Anyone else care to personally prognosticate?

Anyone else care to personally prognosticate?

Not me, but I appreciate the analysis. Aside from the most obvious party line predictions, I don't have any special insight into the supreme court. They seem mostly like a black box to me.

Any thoughts on the recently adopted code of conduct for the supreme court?

And did they ever find that leaker?

My read is broadly similar to @Walterodim's up thread.

Jackson and Sotomayor are affirmative action hires who are basically there to be two guaranteed votes for the Left.

Kagan is consistently left leaning but strikes me as much sharper and more of an independent thinker than the above two.

Roberts is a squishy centerist who's first loyalty is to the status quo, and thats why hes the chief. As others have said, "his role is to grease the wheels"

Kavanaugh is more right leaning than Roberts, but similar in that he seems to be an institutionalist first.

Barret and Alito are consistantly Right leaning. With Alito serving the same role that Kagan does for the opposing camp.

Thomas is an obstinate "Boomercon" and typically serves as "the voice of the normies" on the court. Usually votes with the conservative faction but has been known to cross the aisle on occasion.

Gorsuch, broadly right leaning, but a reflexive contraian first and foremost.

I'm much less kind to Alito. He's a right wing hack, every bit as nakedly political as Sotomayor, just for the other side. Mostly agreed on the rest.

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