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How so? I'm not so sure about it increasing Trump's chances of winning — I'm from Alaska; I remember what happened with Ted Stevens, and that was a much more egregious case of patent railroading.
And, indeed having him win from in jail would indeed be a problem for the establishment, but what then comes to my mind is the case of Tsar Nicholas II.
Never heard of the dude, but the reason the reaction to Trump's conviction might be worse than Steven's case, is because the knives were out for Trump for 8 years straight, to an absurd degree. It got so bad, that for all I know they got an actual case against him now, and I still think the proper response would be to vote for him, in retaliation for the circus show we've been put through.
I don't want to come off as callous, but they can kill him for all I care. The more officially, the better.
the problem is if they do kill trump then you can't vote for him. you will probably just end up accidentally voting for an establishment candidate in the end even if you try your best not to.
I don't know if that matters much. It's not like my hopes are that Trump wins and manages to fix anything, the point is to convince people that the establishment is illegitimate, and we need to build alternatives.
Why? What is "legitimacy," anyway? The difference between "Don Corleone" and "King Vito I" isn't that one has "legitimacy" and the other doesn't, it's whether or not there's a bigger, stronger "stationary bandit." Whatever group can most credibly tell you "follow this rule or I hurt you" is the government (and that's what "government" simply is).
I wish I could remember where I encountered the argument that Westerners deeply misunderstand the "Mandate of Heaven," mistaking it for a Chinese "divine right of kings" when it's really a much more materialist concept. That what it really means is that "legitimacy" follows from — is a product of — the de facto exercise of imperial power. Whoever most performs the functions of government (however badly) is the government (until someone else is actually doing it better).
…but what makes you think this is possible? Both in terms of the forces in opposition, and the qualities of the people in question?
I'm not saying the government is well-versed in leadership strategy. Surely, though, you can see why there would want to be a façade over this reality. There has to be an attempt at showing that the government is doing things to improve the lives of the people it rules.
I'm not interested in a stick-only approach - I want carrots. This is how a government would get more of my compliance. This is how you would get me to not press the red button and vote for Trump as he sits in a cell. I'm still convinced that his win in 2016 was mostly driven by the populace trying to signal this: "more carrots, or else".
Not really.
Perhaps, but not that much of one, I'd say. What do you suppose the average 3rd Century BC Chinese peasant felt about what Qin Shi Huangdi was doing to improve his life (imposing an infamously-harsh legal code and conscripting him to start building the impressive-but-useless boondoggle known as the Great Wall)? What sort of "carrot" was dangled before the average Neo-Assyrian subject during the reign of Ashurbanipal?
The point of the "stationary bandit model" is that the stationary bandit is, by his nature as such, preferable to the mobile bandit. The primary "carrot" for most regimes has been protection from said mobile bandits, and that looks to have been enough for the majority of recorded history.
When it comes for "improv[ing] the lives of the people," you don't have to be all that great, you just have to be better, in the eyes of enough people, than Lord Humungus.
And the elite reply, near as I can tell, continues to be "no carrots for you, and what 'or else,' anyway?"
I'd say that last is the real question. Or else what, exactly?
There doesn't need to be a trigger for an armed resolution. How much political blood and treasure has the ruling class expended to kill Trump? Why spend all this effort when the average voter is a sheep just begging for slaughter?
If they weren't being such obviously hypocritical liars things would be easier. Perhaps it's worth the expense to see how far they can push.
Probably very little — particularly relative to the amount at their disposal — given he's still alive.
Because their own self-understanding and self-image require the pretense of a casus belli before they can really stick it to the other tribe (like so many of my classmates at Caltech deeply wanted to).
A person I follow on tumblr once reminisced about his college days and mentioned hanging out with students from upper-class backgrounds who would opine on "the world-historical necessity of Flyover genocide." What if that is how far they can push? Is it really still worth the risk?
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