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Notes -
Texas primary ballot propositions for 2024 released
https://texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2024-Primary-Ballot-Propositions.pdf
You can read all thirteen of them above. They're not binding on the legislature, but in a dominant party system the results of referenda on the primary ballot have a strong say. You can read past year's propositions, and the results, here: https://texasgop.org/republican-primary-ballot-propositions/. All of the ones which aren't just fluffy signaling had at least a serious attempt to enact them by the government, except for the life amendment(this is probably because the Texas GOP isn't flat out delusional and realizes such an amendment would fail). Greg Abbott called two special sessions to address 2022's #9(school choice) and put 10,000 troops on the border to address #1(they're still there). The results of these referenda are a very strong guide to what Greg Abbott's priorities for the following legislative session are and have a lot of influence over other state officials as well- although not everything happens. And given that Texas has an economy the size of the Netherlands and the second largest population in the USA, it seems like Texas legislative priorities for the next session(Texas's legislature meets once every other year, so this is the 2025 session, not a 2024 session) are relevant culture war fodder.
To start with, a note on the secession proposal- the threshold for putting a proposition on the primary ballot is, under state law, signatures equivalent to 5% of the votes for the party's gubernatorial candidate in the last election, which for republicans turned out to be about 100k. The secessionists got 140k, then, well, read the rejection letter(https://texasgop.org/texit-prop/). To note Matt Rinaldi is not a rino; he's not using loopholes to reject this proposition because he loves Joe Biden or would be uncomfortable with the policy direction of a Texas that doesn't have to answer to DC. The Texas GOP seriously appears to want to not have to deal with the secession question right now, although a case can be made that most of the state party leadership wants to keep it in their back pocket for if a socialist gets elected or a Lebanon-style civil war breaks out or something. The Texas Nationalist Movement, which occasionally has success on less core issues, is posturing on twitter about wanting to sue the GOP to get a ballot referendum, but it'll probably just get dismissed if they do file it.
Onto the actual proposals-
1- Eliminating property taxes. Texas property taxes are legitimately too high and have to be brought under some sort of control(and the GOP primary electorate are very heavily homeowners); this proposition is probably going to pass at like 99/1. What the legislature actually does with it is unclear, but I'd expect a stricter regulation on raising property appraisals(although nothing like california's prop 13; there are enough technocrats in the legislature to avoid something so stupid) coupled with a buydown of rates.
2- Is about the border. So are 3, 4, and 5. I expect e-verify(system for checking workers to be US citizens) to be enacted, then evaded with temp agencies that never get prosecuted, the border to get tightened up, and in state tuition at state universities to require proof of citizenship. Public schools probably won't kick the illegal immigrants out.
6- Prohibiting overseas national guard deployment without a declaration of war. The national guard is technically federal troops, so there will be a very carefully worded bill about this one that winds up in court.
7- This is an interesting one. It's calling on the state government to create a metallic-standard currency through the Texas bullion depository(a real thing which already exists- https://www.texasbulliondepository.gov/). I think it's technically legal? Definitely an interesting one to watch- both the bill that gets drafted and what comptroller Glenn Hegar(who's perhaps best known for trying to shut down drag shows by sending them a bill for unpaid strip club taxes, and running an anti-ESG crusade) actually does with it if it passes.
8- Banning vaccine mandates. Boring, will pass, probably going to have a bunch of exceptions in it.
9- Closing the primary. I don't have a particularly strong opinion on this and I think it's to very mildly push the republican primary electorate towards nominating hardliners over moderates.
10- Giving the attorney general authority to prosecute election crimes. It seems like three things are notable about this- Harris county(the state's largest, it has Houston in it) is widely believed by republican primary voters to have rigged their 2022 election in favor of democrats, this is pushing a constitutional amendment so it needs to go to a public referendum after the legislature approves it, and the current attorney general is Ken Paxton.
11- School choice again. Greg Abbott is currently campaigning against republicans he blames for killing the schoolchoice bill last session; we'll see if it works this time.
12- Requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Tinkering with election rules is predictable drama and I expect whatever the legislature comes up with to result in a quorum bust again.
13- Ban citizens of x countries from owning land in Texas. This failed on a technicality in the last session.
Maybe I'm crazy but isn't this obviously unconstitutional? Arizona v. United States was still binding precedent last I checked. States can't just seize the authority to do federal immigration policy for themselves. I think Proposition 3 is probably fine. Proposition 4 is probably fine as applied to colleges but I think is just a repeat of Plyler v. Doe (which was also Texas) as applied to K-12 schools. Proposition 5 also seems fine.
I do not understand the obsession with using precious metals as currency. Why is it better for the value of your currency to be at the whims of a commodity market as compared to managed by a central bank? Are the value of these coins (presumably) going to be pegged to some USD price? Free floating exchange rate? Why would anyone use these as opposed to USD?
Seems like this has obvious equal protection problems? My understanding is the 14th Amendment's guarantee of equal protection applies to citizens and non-citizens alike, as long as they're in the United States and subject to its jurisdiction. Seems like classic national origin discrimination that would be an equal protection violation.
Options are always nice. Central banks don't always do a great job managing their currencies and, while metallic standards aren't perfect, they're a workable alternative when your central bankers are having a live one.
How much of an option is it really? Unless the US federal government decides to accept Texas' new currency everyone in Texas is going to have some expenses (federal taxes) they'll need to pay in USD. Seems like a significant effect of the currency would be exposing Texas merchants to forex/commodity market volatility they probably don't want to be exposed to.
Can they not buy USD from other people? Or setup a Eurodollar?
Honestly I actually doubt that a gold backed currency would be much more volatile than a fiat one in a context of constant generalized inflation. Not in real terms anyhow.
They can (indeed must) buy USD from others but what others will sell to them? Texas will still be part of the United States and so USD will still be legal tender. If you have USD you can transact anywhere in the United States, Texas included. If you have TexasBucks you can probably only transact in Texas. Why use the TexasBucks instead of USD? Why would I want to sell my USD for TexasBucks, except maybe for speculative purposes?
Well yes, this would probably just be shiny shiny bitcoins. If there was a government that could issue a stable currency within the constraints set by the U.S. constitution on state level currencies, it’d be Texas or Utah, albeit it’s unclear what the benefit of having one is(potentially enabling low interest rate loans within state?).
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The gold backing is the sole reason to use TexasBucks in a world where USD exists. And I won't do the goldbug schtick of explaining why you would want to use a deflationary currency, the words have been said enough.
Most likely this will end up being a shitty gold instrument nobody uses and a political stunt. But in these times of economic turmoil, you never know.
If they don\t bungle the implementation I might buy some TexasBucks. Hell, I might even open a busines that accepts TexasBucks in exchange for bullets, cigars and whiskey. Hell, maybe they should do away with the whole gold thing and just transact in bullets directly. Add that extra meaning to buckshot.
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