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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 25, 2023

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Texas primary ballot propositions for 2024 released

https://texasgop.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2024-Primary-Ballot-Propositions.pdf

You can read all thirteen of them above. They're not binding on the legislature, but in a dominant party system the results of referenda on the primary ballot have a strong say. You can read past year's propositions, and the results, here: https://texasgop.org/republican-primary-ballot-propositions/. All of the ones which aren't just fluffy signaling had at least a serious attempt to enact them by the government, except for the life amendment(this is probably because the Texas GOP isn't flat out delusional and realizes such an amendment would fail). Greg Abbott called two special sessions to address 2022's #9(school choice) and put 10,000 troops on the border to address #1(they're still there). The results of these referenda are a very strong guide to what Greg Abbott's priorities for the following legislative session are and have a lot of influence over other state officials as well- although not everything happens. And given that Texas has an economy the size of the Netherlands and the second largest population in the USA, it seems like Texas legislative priorities for the next session(Texas's legislature meets once every other year, so this is the 2025 session, not a 2024 session) are relevant culture war fodder.

To start with, a note on the secession proposal- the threshold for putting a proposition on the primary ballot is, under state law, signatures equivalent to 5% of the votes for the party's gubernatorial candidate in the last election, which for republicans turned out to be about 100k. The secessionists got 140k, then, well, read the rejection letter(https://texasgop.org/texit-prop/). To note Matt Rinaldi is not a rino; he's not using loopholes to reject this proposition because he loves Joe Biden or would be uncomfortable with the policy direction of a Texas that doesn't have to answer to DC. The Texas GOP seriously appears to want to not have to deal with the secession question right now, although a case can be made that most of the state party leadership wants to keep it in their back pocket for if a socialist gets elected or a Lebanon-style civil war breaks out or something. The Texas Nationalist Movement, which occasionally has success on less core issues, is posturing on twitter about wanting to sue the GOP to get a ballot referendum, but it'll probably just get dismissed if they do file it.

Onto the actual proposals-

1- Eliminating property taxes. Texas property taxes are legitimately too high and have to be brought under some sort of control(and the GOP primary electorate are very heavily homeowners); this proposition is probably going to pass at like 99/1. What the legislature actually does with it is unclear, but I'd expect a stricter regulation on raising property appraisals(although nothing like california's prop 13; there are enough technocrats in the legislature to avoid something so stupid) coupled with a buydown of rates.

2- Is about the border. So are 3, 4, and 5. I expect e-verify(system for checking workers to be US citizens) to be enacted, then evaded with temp agencies that never get prosecuted, the border to get tightened up, and in state tuition at state universities to require proof of citizenship. Public schools probably won't kick the illegal immigrants out.

6- Prohibiting overseas national guard deployment without a declaration of war. The national guard is technically federal troops, so there will be a very carefully worded bill about this one that winds up in court.

7- This is an interesting one. It's calling on the state government to create a metallic-standard currency through the Texas bullion depository(a real thing which already exists- https://www.texasbulliondepository.gov/). I think it's technically legal? Definitely an interesting one to watch- both the bill that gets drafted and what comptroller Glenn Hegar(who's perhaps best known for trying to shut down drag shows by sending them a bill for unpaid strip club taxes, and running an anti-ESG crusade) actually does with it if it passes.

8- Banning vaccine mandates. Boring, will pass, probably going to have a bunch of exceptions in it.

9- Closing the primary. I don't have a particularly strong opinion on this and I think it's to very mildly push the republican primary electorate towards nominating hardliners over moderates.

10- Giving the attorney general authority to prosecute election crimes. It seems like three things are notable about this- Harris county(the state's largest, it has Houston in it) is widely believed by republican primary voters to have rigged their 2022 election in favor of democrats, this is pushing a constitutional amendment so it needs to go to a public referendum after the legislature approves it, and the current attorney general is Ken Paxton.

11- School choice again. Greg Abbott is currently campaigning against republicans he blames for killing the schoolchoice bill last session; we'll see if it works this time.

12- Requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote. Tinkering with election rules is predictable drama and I expect whatever the legislature comes up with to result in a quorum bust again.

13- Ban citizens of x countries from owning land in Texas. This failed on a technicality in the last session.

Eliminating property taxes. Texas property taxes are legitimately too high and have to be brought under some sort of control(and the GOP primary electorate are very heavily homeowners); this proposition is probably going to pass at like 99/1. What the legislature actually does with it is unclear, but I'd expect a stricter regulation on raising property appraisals(although nothing like california's prop 13; there are enough technocrats in the legislature to avoid something so stupid) coupled with a buydown of rates.

What's the alternative? Taxing income is way worse, that's actual productive activity being taxed. Sales tax (Fairtax style) is cool but voters hate it.

Any attempts to lighten the property tax load are inevitably going to be similar to prop 13. The legislature is unable to enact a law without a million carveouts. What you get is going to be way different from "we gotta keep grandma in her house".

Developing property is also productive activity.

You don't have to develop shit to own property. I've seen places for rent in my neighborhood where the landlord hasn't even vented the dryer to the outside of the house. Not even mentioning the empty lots, empty condos, and historic laundromats.

hasn't even vented the dryer to the outside of the house

While what you're describing is probably a cheap, incorrect (and probably both damaging and against code) way to install a dryer, there are "condensing" dryer models out there that don't require vents.

While what you're describing is probably a cheap, incorrect (and probably both damaging and against code) way to install a dryer, there are "condensing" dryer models out there that don't require vents.

And are the default in the UK (and, as far as I am aware, most European countries), where the tumble dryer is typically being installed in an old house (either semi-detached or terraced) with no expectation that there is a conveniently placed outside wall to run a vent through. They don't work very well.

Technically true, but the dryers installed in those units are not such dryers.