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Notes -
https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba
Ron Desantis has dropped out of the republican presidential primary and endorsed Trump.
Now, obviously, this will not change the end result- Trump will win the primary and obtain the republican nomination. But, there is a dim chance that it takes Haley into the #1 spot in New Hampshire, embarrassing for Trump, by consolidating the anti-Trump vote. Granted this is an increase from like 5% to 10%, but it's more likely to give Nikki Haley a boost before a do-or-die primary for her. It's I guess dimly possible that there's a few voters undecided between Desantis and Haley who will now support Trump, but I have to think this isn't a very big group.
Ron Desantis will likely try to find a Trump cabinet position; but it seems likely that he won't get one. Trump's broadsides against Desantis have lasted long enough to think they might be genuine. I would expect Desantis to finish his term and then look into either a senate seat, or a run in 2028.
I notice I am confused. There is a 10-15% chance that the Supreme Court rules Trump ineligible for the presidency. There is an additional 10-15% chance that Trump is literally in jail by the time the convention rolls around. Just because DeSantis can't beat Trump in a primary doesn't mean he has no chance. Even if he doesn't have the money for an active campaign, endorsing Trump kills his momentum for a "told you so" convention chaos campaign.
Is that where the prediction markets are? I think the SCOTUS probability is overestimated.
This market has been pretty consistent at 80-90% that the Colorado decision is reversed. I think people tend to underestimate the likelihood of an affirmation for a couple of reasons:
Supreme Court justices are electorally insulated from the excesses of Trumpism.
Conservative Supreme Court justices are uniquely predisposed to be unsympathetic towards mobs of people storming government buildings to protest official processes they disagree with.
Unfortunately the Supreme Court isn't the end of it unless they rule categorically that Trump is and will remain eligible, which seems unlikely. The only real way to do that is are the related, very dodgy "The Presidency isn't an office under the constitution" and "The Presidential oath isn't an oath to support the constitution" arguments. Roberts might like those, but I don't know about the others. If they claim the standard of law used was wrong, the Colorado Supreme Court on remand can just claim that even under the Supreme Court's given standard of law, Trump is out (They can do this whether or not it plainly makes sense or not, as with the various gun control cases following Bruen). Even if SCOTUS demands an actual conviction, Jack Smith can just whip up a DC jury and get one.
IMO the most convincing argument (and what I think SCOTUS is most likely to base its decision on) is that section 3 disqualification, specifically, is not self-executing under section 5, and that some specific action (legislation?) by Congress is necessary to invoke it, which has not happened in this case.
On the other hand, I doubt a partisan Congress (maybe even a single house) passing a simple-majority resolution that "[X] is disqualified from seeking office under the Fourteenth Amendment" really should be sufficient either.
The "not self-executing" argument is the same as the "requires a conviction" one; a conviction under 18 U.S. Code § 2383 would disqualify Trump.
A difference would still lie in whether Congress alone can disqualify a candidate without the involvement of the judiciary, given that they don't have the power to pass bills of attainder.
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