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Notes -
https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-250c8ed4b49843350e258f0c2754c8ba
Ron Desantis has dropped out of the republican presidential primary and endorsed Trump.
Now, obviously, this will not change the end result- Trump will win the primary and obtain the republican nomination. But, there is a dim chance that it takes Haley into the #1 spot in New Hampshire, embarrassing for Trump, by consolidating the anti-Trump vote. Granted this is an increase from like 5% to 10%, but it's more likely to give Nikki Haley a boost before a do-or-die primary for her. It's I guess dimly possible that there's a few voters undecided between Desantis and Haley who will now support Trump, but I have to think this isn't a very big group.
Ron Desantis will likely try to find a Trump cabinet position; but it seems likely that he won't get one. Trump's broadsides against Desantis have lasted long enough to think they might be genuine. I would expect Desantis to finish his term and then look into either a senate seat, or a run in 2028.
I notice I am confused. There is a 10-15% chance that the Supreme Court rules Trump ineligible for the presidency. There is an additional 10-15% chance that Trump is literally in jail by the time the convention rolls around. Just because DeSantis can't beat Trump in a primary doesn't mean he has no chance. Even if he doesn't have the money for an active campaign, endorsing Trump kills his momentum for a "told you so" convention chaos campaign.
Is that where the prediction markets are? I think the SCOTUS probability is overestimated.
This market has been pretty consistent at 80-90% that the Colorado decision is reversed. I think people tend to underestimate the likelihood of an affirmation for a couple of reasons:
Supreme Court justices are electorally insulated from the excesses of Trumpism.
Conservative Supreme Court justices are uniquely predisposed to be unsympathetic towards mobs of people storming government buildings to protest official processes they disagree with.
Roberts is conservative in that he doesn’t want to trigger chaos. Even if he 100% agrees with the Colorado ruling he’s going to realize a self executing 14th amendment means that any State can just decide to not let a candidate on the ballot.
The end result would be selecting Presidents by the state legislature.
But there is a also a big gap between conservatives don’t like seeing rioting and deciding to agree that rioting is the same as insurrection. Words still need to have meaning.
I think a universal reversal with the Democrat judges voting with the conservatives to reverse is far more likely than the conservatives banning Trump.
Of course, selecting presidents by state legislature is still completely legal federally and how it used to be done, I believe. But this would likely be weaponized in other races.
If a state legislature decided to ignore all votes for Trump when selecting their electors, then those voters might well have a case under Section 2 of the 14th Amendment. (Unless those voters' "participation in rebellion" could be decided by the states?) Of course, a state might find the constitutional penalty of losing electors superior to the possibility of a Trump victory, if the latter has any real chance of occurring at all.
Seems unlikely to me. There's plenty of precedent. In 1892, Grover Cleveland wasn't on the ballot in five states, in 1948, Truman wasn't on the ballot in Alabama, and in 1964, Johnson wasn't on the ballot in Alabama. There were a few other cases. Ballots weren't done the same way at the time of the passage of the amendment, as well.
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