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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   1619 thread views

Transnational Thursday for January 18, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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How would Trump stop the Russo-Ukrainian war in 24 hours? The obvious answer is that he wouldn't, but what if he actually tried? Are there any relatively plausible scenarios someone with Trump's temperament and reputation could try?

Trump cares a lot about what his constituents think, he's obsessed with polls. War in Ukraine is unpopular and especially unpopular among his populist right. He could make it clear Ukraine is getting no more money. Then release whatever info the spy agencies have on the 2014 coup to try and paint Ukraine as an illegitimate state owned by the globalists, which would give Europe a way out. Ukraine would be forced to concede quickly, or maybe they fight another month or two.

It's probably the only way to end the war, NATO involvement just ups the escalation, risks nuclear war or other powers entering the fray like China as they wouldn't want their backyard unstable and to be further isolated by western expansion. Though I've been surprised at how non aggressive China is so who knows really, they are a very introverted nation. It's logical though.

I doubt he will do it though, it'd take more calculation. Trump is more of a seat of his pants person. Deep state would immediately start to paint him as weak or a Russian puppet again and it's very easy to get under Trump's skin and manipulate him this way.

Basically the war will continue to the last willing Ukrainian.

War in Ukraine is unpopular and especially unpopular among his populist right.

That sounds like that American voters think that USA leadership has same or equal blame in starting war than Russia leadership.

NATO involvement just ups the escalation, risks nuclear war or other powers entering the fray like China as they wouldn't want their backyard unstable

Russia clearly winning is causing the same problems, but in even more significant and worse way

How so? Russia winning just resets things to the way they were pre 2014, except now they have a puppet state that is completely devastated economically with serious demographic issues to grapple with. I'm not sure they'd even want territory beyond kharkiv / odessa.

Yeah, it’ll be interesting gamesmanship. Trump likes deals, but he hates his deal overtures being rejected or thrown back at him. So the key for the American ‘deep state’ will be making his offer unpalatable to the Russians so Putin rejects it offhand (thereby cementing Trumps support for Ukraine), while the key for Russia will be offering Trump just enough that he considers himself to have won in a way that Biden etc would be incapable of.

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