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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   912 thread views

Transnational Thursday for February 1, 2024

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Hungary and Friends

A follow up to last week’s post about Turkey finally approving Sweden’s NATO membership (in theory in exchange for American shipments of F-16s, which have not been approved for delivery by Congress yet). Hungary is the only remaining holdout keeping Sweden from NATO membership and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has now agreed to meet with Viktor Orban. Hungary has responded in a characteristically confusing manner:

In a post on X on the same day, Orban wrote that his country supports Sweden’s membership and said he would urge lawmakers to approve its accession quickly.

But on Thursday, Hungary’s parliamentary speaker, Laszlo Kover, said there was no urgency in backing Sweden’s NATO membership bid.

“I do not feel any particular urgency. Moreover, I do not think there is an extraordinary situation,” Kover said.

The US Ambassador to Hungary sounds increasingly exasperated with their ostensible ally.

Hungary is also holding up a $54 billion European Union aid package for Ukraine, so basically everyone in Europe loves Hungary right now. Ostensibly the conflict is over the minority rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine, but given Orban’s relative friendliness with Putin there are a lot of accusations thrown about the move being pro-Russian (functionally or intentionally). The Foreign Ministers of Hungary and Ukraine met to try to hash things out but apparently still no luck.

Monday’s meeting was Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto’s first visit to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and the only official bilateral meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, in the last two years.

Szijjarto said that modifications Ukraine made late last year to its education and language laws had “doubtlessly stopped a negative spiral” that had restricted the rights of ethnic Hungarians in the western Ukrainian region of Zakarpattia to study in their native language.

But, he said, those changes were not enough to resolve the dispute over the language rights of the Hungarian minority that has dominated the two countries’ poor relations for years.

The EU has been blocking funds for Hungary in response to democratic backsliding in Hungary; probably what it would really take to get them on board is to reverse this and effectively pay them off. Supposedly it’s possible that a meeting will happen directly between Orban and Zelensky but it remains to be seen.

Edit: Update: @Ioper flagged that today there was actually a breakthrough on the Ukraine funding:

After weeks of standoff, European Union leaders brought Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary on board and agreed on Thursday to create a 50-billion-euro fund for Ukraine, providing a critical lifeline to a country at risk of financial meltdown in the midst of war with Russia...

Before Thursday’s meeting, Mr. Orban had been demanding an annual chance to veto the disbursement of money to Ukraine, which is to be dispensed in the form of loans and grants over the next four years. But that demand was rejected. Instead, leaders agreed to a regular review of the way the money was being spent to assuage concerns about diversion or corruption, E.U. officials said.

Under the agreement reached on Thursday, the European Commission, the E.U. executive arm, will draft an annual report on how the Ukraine fund is being used. European leaders will have a chance to debate its performance and raise any concerns about it...

It appeared that Mr. Orban did not receive anything material in exchange for giving up his veto for the fund, valued at about $54 billion.

What are the specific allegations of democratic backsliding? It seems like Hungary plays hardball but well within the rules of democracy and has a one party state as a result of free and fair elections.

I don't want to step on any Hungarian posters toes but a short summary would be:

  • Erosion of separation of powers
  • Financial and physical intimidation of media
  • Using state media and other government agencies to run their election campaign.
  • Significantly undercutting the independence of the judiciary
  • Rapidly growing corruption, cronyism and clientelism, often using EU money.
  • Significantly reducing the independence of academia.

The last has gotten the most or at least disproportionate airtime, partly because of toxoplasmic reasons, but is also by far the least important.

The contention is not only that there is democratic backsliding (in the sense that elections are becoming less free) but that things like rule of law is decreasing. The EU doesn't only require it's members to hold elections, you also need things like independent institutions like a parliament and a judiciary. You don't qualify for membership just because you hold elections for a dictator every few years. Would that be a democracy? Maybe, under some definitions, but not under the EU's, which is what matters here.

I'm not saying this is the situation in Hungary but it's where people perceive things to be trending.

The last has gotten the most or at least disproportionate airtime, partly because of toxoplasmic reasons, but is also by far the least important.

I don't know about that. It's what allows ideas like "separation of power" or "independence of the judiciary" to have even a fig leaf of legitimacy, though admittedly you need have control over it for a while, before the effects become apparent.

It seems this is now resolved?

Thanks for catching!

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