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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   35361 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022

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I'd love to get daily dispatches from themotte about foreign politics, war, energy, and economics. Unfortunately those things take expertise to talk about. Running your mouth about the teacher wearing giant prosthetic breasts to shop does not.

What are your expectations? Are we coming near a grand showdown?

70% prediction: Italy is slapped on the wrist with some sort of minor bureaucratic penalty by the EU, at most.

How is this going to interact with the looming threat of grid collapse in Europe?

The fact Europe has bigger fish to fry is part of why the above is the most likely outcome.

Russia sanctions and the European willingness to keep Ukrainian army in the field? NATO expansions?

The US is keeping Ukraine in the field.

90% prediction: Sweden and Finland process to join NATO continues. 99% prediction: Italian politics aren't cited mentioned as a major factor if these talks derail.

Is her family and God rhetoric just fluff or do you expect some real moves in this regard?

I really am speaking from ignorance here, but based purely on my priors of the way these sort of politicians play out:

80%: Italy sees lower immigration while her government is in power.

99%: The fertility rate of native Italian women remains below replacement rate while her government is in power.

The US is keeping Ukraine in the field.

That is a good point. After some thinking, I get the impression that at this point even an openly pro-Russian leader (they went extinct or dormant in Europe in the last 6 months) would really struggle to resume trade against American wishes as the US controls the escalation opportunities in the Ukrainian war.

99%: The fertility rate of native Italian women remains below replacement rate while her government is in power.

Very probably yes. Finding a solution to the Western fertility rates which doesn't involve "be Israel" would be an achievement on par with fusion energy at this point. I don't expect much more than some welfare state fiddling a la Hungary.

Hungary did raise their fertility rates.

I mean, not above fertility, but I don’t think anyone expected them to.

Admittedly I don't know much about the data in detail. But I suspect that much of the fertility increase in Eastern Europe has to do with repairing the absolute socio-economic wreck the end of communism had unleashed.

I'd love to get daily dispatches

There were a few users who have done semi-regular dispatches about their country in the past. Gloster80256 did some during COVID. I remember someone doing updates on politics in Finland. MacaqueOfTheNorth would occasionally do Canada.

Maybe a weekly thread where people could just post about happenings in their country/state/province/city? Or just encouraging more dispatches in this thread.

Are there no Mottizens in Ukraine? I can't remember seeing any comments from any. Maybe they are a bit busy.

What is this place?

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Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


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