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Something that always bothered me about the Motte is that while massive cultural/political events are going on in Europe, one needs to dive deep into the roundup thread to find any discussion of it at all. Meanwhile the latest trans-people-in-school or outrageous-nytimes-oped controversy (which nobody will remember in a week) will have 500 comment threads dedicated to extreme nitpicking.
Anyway sorry for the rant. It looks like the far-right (of the quite openly far-right, even post-fascist variety) has just won the Italian elections and will very likely going to provide the prime minister to a cabinet that will include a 85 year old Berlusconi among others. Italy is the 3rd most populous and wealthy country in the EU. It also acts as a perennial threat to the stability of the Brussels-led order and the euro, since an Italian default or currency exit would almost definitely trigger the collapse of the euro with who knows what consequences. The EU looks determined to fight. Meloni herself does not sound like the type of politician who will accept to be crushed as easily as her predecessors. Here is a French interview with a 19 years old activist Meloni. She still sounds like a true believer to me. To get the gist of just how radical (from the EU-norm) she is willing to be with regard to cultural issues, I recommend this speech from 3 years ago (with English subs).
What are your expectations? Are we coming near a grand showdown? How is this going to interact with the looming threat of grid collapse in Europe? Russia sanctions and the European willingness to keep Ukrainian army in the field? NATO expansions? Is her family and God rhetoric just fluff or do you expect some real moves in this regard? When the ECB will have to start increasing interest rates substantially and Italy has to choose between bankruptcy or euro-exit, how will this go under this government?
P.S. Italy was one of the most anal countries with regard to vaccine oppression and corona measures in Europe. Does anyone know what the position of the Fratelli was back then? And how they talk about these things now?
I'd love to get daily dispatches from themotte about foreign politics, war, energy, and economics. Unfortunately those things take expertise to talk about. Running your mouth about the teacher wearing giant prosthetic breasts to shop does not.
70% prediction: Italy is slapped on the wrist with some sort of minor bureaucratic penalty by the EU, at most.
The fact Europe has bigger fish to fry is part of why the above is the most likely outcome.
The US is keeping Ukraine in the field.
90% prediction: Sweden and Finland process to join NATO continues. 99% prediction: Italian politics aren't cited mentioned as a major factor if these talks derail.
I really am speaking from ignorance here, but based purely on my priors of the way these sort of politicians play out:
80%: Italy sees lower immigration while her government is in power.
99%: The fertility rate of native Italian women remains below replacement rate while her government is in power.
That is a good point. After some thinking, I get the impression that at this point even an openly pro-Russian leader (they went extinct or dormant in Europe in the last 6 months) would really struggle to resume trade against American wishes as the US controls the escalation opportunities in the Ukrainian war.
Very probably yes. Finding a solution to the Western fertility rates which doesn't involve "be Israel" would be an achievement on par with fusion energy at this point. I don't expect much more than some welfare state fiddling a la Hungary.
Hungary did raise their fertility rates.
I mean, not above fertility, but I don’t think anyone expected them to.
Admittedly I don't know much about the data in detail. But I suspect that much of the fertility increase in Eastern Europe has to do with repairing the absolute socio-economic wreck the end of communism had unleashed.
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There were a few users who have done semi-regular dispatches about their country in the past. Gloster80256 did some during COVID. I remember someone doing updates on politics in Finland. MacaqueOfTheNorth would occasionally do Canada.
Maybe a weekly thread where people could just post about happenings in their country/state/province/city? Or just encouraging more dispatches in this thread.
Are there no Mottizens in Ukraine? I can't remember seeing any comments from any. Maybe they are a bit busy.
We had at least one that I recall but they'd already been inactive for several months before the shit kicked off.
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