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It sometimes surprises me how infrequently Canadian elections produce a popular vote majority government and just how small popular vote minorities can be and still win enough seats to form feasible minority or even outright majority governments.
People complain a lot about how undemocratic outcomes in the US are related to the Senate and the Electoral College but it's shockingly common across the democratic world to have governing majorities in parliaments elected by popular vote minorities -- even very small ones! Relatively few countries seem to consistently product popular vote majority coalitions, like Germany, although some countries like Israel or the Netherlands have a habit of building coalitions that are just under 50% of the popular vote.
Yeah its very weird because theory suggests that everything should trend toward a 2-party system, and yet...
Quebec is particularly crazy at the federal level: Literally 4 competitive parties. Look at the Quebec vote breakdown, how doesn't it result in 2 parties joining to win handily?
Quebec is very unusual. Look farther back.
Basically it's quite socially separate from the rest of Canada. Most identify more as Quebecers or French than as Canadians.
So it's very common for Quebecers to vote federally in terms of what Quebec or their district will get instead of ideologically.
In Canada ministers are chosen from the elected members. But cabinet ministers are expected to have representation from Quebec.
So if the Conservatives win, and they only have a handful of small town members of parliament, then those members are basically guaranteed to be in cabinet.
Quebec ends up having big swings.
In 2000 the NDP got 1.8% of the vote in Quebec.
In 2011 the NDP got 42.9% of the vote in Quebec.
In 2019 the NDP got 10.8% of the vote in Quebec.
The two party system in the US is pushed by factors missing in Canada.
First, separate executive elections with multiple elections on the same day. A Florida's state representative's campaign will get to piggy back on GOTV from the national presidential campaign. Even if there are ideological differences there's a huge reward for tying yourself to a presidential candidate.
The other big thing is state run open primaries. In Canada candidates are decided by votes by members of Electoral District Associations. That is, the party members in that district. It tends to be a small group of people running it. It's easy to keep outsiders out.
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