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Notes -
Navalny is dead.
IMHO it is stupid to seriously discuss the circumstances of his death, especially after Litvinenko, Nemtsov and Navalny himself in 2020. He was killed and many new details that are brought in every hour only prove this more. Prison conditions as a reason are not an excuse, especially when we can see yesterday's Alexei, looking unhealthy, but not at all near death. Prigozhin's fate only further confirms the presumption of guilt.
His death is the right choice for the regime. Navalny posed a much greater threat to them in prison than abroad, and no possible reaction is scary enough to keep him alive. The authorities hope that in the current conditions there will not be a new leader in the opposition who will be able to unite the disparate dissident branches. This is quite likely, especially considering that the deceased did not have a successor (official or informal).
The opposition has lost its head, and the FBK have lost the remnants of their legitimacy. This tragedy for many will be a time of opportunity for others. Surely the next leader is already here, although I hope we wouldn't need to wait too long. In his posthumous address that he recorded for the 2022 film, Alexey asks Russians not to give up and I am sure that no one is going to do this. As a Russian I can say that as long as Russia exists, there will always be people willing to risk their lives for freedom and truth.
Navlny never seemed to have any ideology and seemed like a perfect example of a CIA stooge. Usually when there is an opposition, there is a much clearer agenda. The actual opposition groups have more policy that they want to implement. Navalny had no real ideology, he was just generally anti regime while being the darling of the western media. Color revolution leaders seldom seem to have an actual agenda before they take power. They will at best be "pro freedom" or some other empty epithet in order to get broad support.
Navalny’s ideology was generic center-ground nationalism, but his main focus was opposition to the Putin regime, which seems reasonable. Any successful Russian opposition would have to appeal to a number of different ideological currents in any case.
Of course, Putin’s ideology is also similarly void and incoherent.
Funny how the western media loved a supposed nationalist. If Navalny's critique of Putin was that he wasn't nationalistic enough he would have gotten zero-support for Navalny. At best it would be like Ukrainian nationalism where they get to wave WWII paraphernalia while the government rams through neoliberal and culturally leftwing policies.
I'm fairly sure current Ukrainian nationalism revolves around the extremely hands-on theme of keeping their country from being occupied by a hostile other nation.
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Navalny’s goal was to maintain the support of both westernized liberals and disaffected nationalists. His “politics”, such as they were, reflected that.
The issue is that would be like trying to maintain the support of Likud voters and Hamas.
It’s more like Bibi trying to maintain the support of a wide faction of secular nationalists, religious Zionists and Chareidim.
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