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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   25164 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 26, 2024

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More ignorant uninformed questions about the American presidential election!

So - Gaza? Palestine? Palestinians? Israel? Will this affect the Democratic vote, or is this just more journalists trying to spin straw into gold?:

In Michigan, home to a large Arab-American constituency, Democratic voters had been urged to mark their primary ballots as "uncommitted" in protest at Mr Biden's Gaza policy.

With almost half of Democratic votes counted, the number of "uncommitted" voters was more than 58,000, according to Edison Research, far exceeding the target of 10,000 that protest organisers had hoped for.

Many in Michigan's Arab-American community who backed Mr Biden in 2020 are angry, as are some progressive Democrats, over Mr Biden's support for Israel's offensive in Hamas-ruled Gaza where tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed.

...Campaign organisers vowed to take what they called their anti-war agenda to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

... With nearly half the estimated Democratic vote counted, Mr Biden had 80% support, with "uncommitted" getting 13%.

...When former president Barack Obama, a Democrat, ran for re-election in 2012, he faced about 21,000 "uncommitted" voters in Michigan's primary that year. Mr Biden faced substantially more.

Michigan is expected to play a decisive role in the head-to-head 5 November US presidential election, a likely rematch between Mr Biden and Mr Trump.

Whatever about Michigan, on a national level is there a bunch of undecided/uncommitted voters who won't vote for Biden in the election (not going to vote for Trump or third party, but not voting as a protest on this one issue)?

If there are, are there enough to make a difference?

Or is it that it doesn't matter, the usual Democrat voters will turn out in enough numbers for a drop off in voting by a single-issue minority not to matter?

Will Gaza even be a live issue by the time the real election finally rolls round?

This seems like a general complaint with Dems/Socialist/Commies ability to build coalitions. When you are running let’s call it a spoils systems (not a perfect fit here) you run into internal bickering over who gets the better spoils. In this case it’s closer to who is the oppressor/oppressed and the top oppressed in the social pyramid.

I tend to think Trump has this election won just because of how close the last election was an on the margins Israel/Hamas and inflation memories should swap some votes. The counter is the lawfare angle but the left has claimed Trump is a bad man for almost a decade now so getting some NY courts to declare him a bad man doesn’t to me feel like it moves the needle.

Don't forget there have been four more years for old Republicans to die and new young Democrats to come of age. The old pipeline of people moving right as they age has stalled.

On the other hand, Trump is doing much better than expected among young voters:

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/26/biden-trump-gen-z-millennial-poll

49% of 18- to 29-year-olds supported Trump, compared with 43% for Biden in a December New York Times/Siena College poll.

The hell? I’m in that bracket and there’s no way Trump has 50% support among young people. How could that even come about?

maybe they are in the closet? wouldn't surprise me, with the vitriol any whiff of right wing gets among lefties.

I dunno, I've picked up some Trump support among younger people that would otherwise be politically disengaged.

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