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Notes -
Israel / Iran War Back On?
Rumors are swirling that Israel will attack Iran as early as today. Iran has promised to retaliate if they do.
Why would Israel do this? Some conjectures:
Iran's missile and drone attack was so pathetic that Israel feels it can attack with little fear of retaliation
The reaction to Iran's attack shows that Sunnis won't help Iran
An outside chance of regime change in Iran might be worth it. Israel has gradually improved relations with Sunni neighbors such as Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. However, Iran's proxy fights have been a constant thorn in their side. A regime change in Iran could finally bring true peace to Israel.
If they can set back Iran's nuclear program it will be worth it
One big wild card is of course the U.S. reaction. Biden is in the middle of a difficult re-election campaign where inflation is probably the #1 issue. Petrol prices have been a major obsession with the Biden administration, which is why they unfroze billions of Iranian funds and reduced sanctions (in what now looks to be a serious blunder).
Israel's attack could cause a spike in oil prices and threaten Biden's reelection campaign. Having already drained about half the SPR to help win the 2022 midterm elections, there is less flexibility to supress prices this time around. For this reason, Biden has urged restraint. But when the chips are down, I think everyone knows that Israel will have the administration's full support.
Less certain is the reaction of European countries and Muslim neighbors. Will countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia truly remain neutral if there is a full-blown war between Shia Muslims and Jews?
It continues to surprise me how many of these blunders date back to the first weeks of the administration. I'm not a huge fan of the previous president, but many of Biden's first actions included repealing the "remain in Mexico" policy (which seems linked to ongoing trouble with immigration), making nice with Iran (which didn't prevent October 7th, and seems hotter now than before), and passing the final round of pandemic stimulus (which we were told wouldn't cause inflation).
It doesn't exactly inspire the most confidence in me.
Its similar to the "reversed stupidity is not intelligence." Biden just got into office and reflexively repealed a bunch of high profile Trump actions without seeming to engage in any thoughts about the merits and tradeoffs relating to any of those policies. So what you got was floods of new asylum claims, funding going to a bunch of terrorists, etc.
US foreign policy is schizophrenic. Why would anyone want to negotiate with the US at this point? Obama takes great pains to advance diplomacy with Iran and join the TPP - Trump immediately reneges on the nuclear deal and leaves the TPP - maximum pressure and trade wars! Biden wants to go back to Obama policies on Iran and climate. Why should anyone trust in his word when the next guy can negate it?
Trump wants to throw Ukraine under the bus. Well, fair enough. May as well get off the sinking ship in a lifeboat rather than swim in the cold. But it's still not consistent, it's confused and certainly does Zelensky no good.
Because we are the 1000 lb gorilla. But more seriously, this is all caused by Presidents thinking they can make foreign policy solo. Wars are supposed to be declared by Congress. Treaties are supposed to be approved by 2/3 of the Senate. If Obama wanted to make a serious nuclear deal with Iran he should have gotten 2/3 of the senators on board, not done a deal he knew 54 senators were opposed to. This sort of unserious flipping happens when a President tries using foreign policy to secure victories on domestic policy.
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The pro-migrant and internationalist left flank had not gotten fully humiliated by the migrant busses and Afghanistan yet, and that wing wanted their pound of flesh upfront.
That wing is still at the same place even after the've been "humiliated". They are incapable of that emotional state.
That wing however is capable of having its impotence exposed, and that has lead to their rantings being dismissed. Jayapal is no longer the force she used to be, and the Squad is little more than a punching bag for right wing shock jocks. They have no political cachet to demand more pounds of flesh up front, and their continual failures are as much due to republican successes as much as their own allies failing to back them up.
Uhh? Biden's whole Mid East policy is based on pandering to that wing. They have a lot of cachet.
My assessment stems from Jayapal getting smacked down for her October 2022 call for Ukraine to surrender, and how the new Israel ceasefire statement is made by Pogan instead of her. The CPC is the largest caucus, sure, but Biden seems to occasionally coincide with their priorities rather than wait on them. My main indicator is how neutered Jayapal specifically is despite her stated ambitions, and I will be happy to reevaluate my conclusions based on evidence of either Jayapals nonrelevance to the CPC or Jayapals wing being specifically catered to.
Jayapal is the chair of the CPC, but doesn't appear to reflect progressive consensus on Ukraine, which is that defeating Russia is super important.
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