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Notes -
A Tone-Shift in the Ukraine War
Lately, I've noticed that the tone of the discussion regarding Ukraine both on the Motte and on X has changed considerably. Notably, it seems that people are taking a much more pessimistic view of Ukraine's chances. The default assumption now is that Ukraine will lose the war.
I think a stalemate is still quite possible, but the more optimistic assumptions that Ukraine would regain lost territory (or comically, Crimea) are now a dead letter. So what, exactly, are our leaders thinking? Recently, Macron went off-narrative a bit, suggesting that France could send troops into Ukraine. More ominously, Secretary of State Blinken said that Ukraine will join NATO.
Perhaps Western leaders view this sabre-rattling as good for their electoral chances. And, until recently, the war was seen as a relatively cost-effective way to weaken Russia. (Sadly, this seems to have failed as Russia has freely exported oil to India and China and is making armaments in great numbers).
But what of Ukrainians themselves? Will they tire of being NATO's cat's paw? It's impossible to find good numbers on how many Ukrainian men have been killed so far in this war. It's likely in the hundreds of thousands. Towns and villages throughout the country are devoid of men, as the men (hunted by conscription) either flee, hide, or are sent to the fronts.
User @Sloot shared this nuclear-grade propoganda. While Ukrainian men fight and die in some trench, an increasing number of Ukrainian women are finding new homes (and Tinder dates) in Germany. Concern about female fidelity has always been a prominent feature of wartime propaganda. But, this takes it to a new level, since the women are in a different country, making new, better lives for themselves. How many will ever even return to Ukraine?
Ukrainian men are getting a raw deal in an effort to reconquer lost territory, whose residents probably want to be part of Russia anyway. Why should Ukrainians fight and die for some abstract geopolitical goal of NATO?
Propaganda about female infidelity while men die in the trenches is as old as language has been invented. Even now there are constant jokes about Navy wives being Coastie girlfriends, and thats peacetime. This propaganda is more for internal consumption of the propaganda generator (look how stupid they are for continuing to fight us!) instead of the propaganda receiver.
I also think 'residents want to part of russia anyways' is pretty disingenuous. Slovyansk and Mariupol both told Russia to fuck off, not to mention Odessa and Kharkiv. Crimea, meaning Sevastapol only, is about the only case where arguing for Russian loyalty is possible, since Donestk and Luhansk needed Little Green Men to invade. Nevertheless, Donestk and aluhansk likely hold little love for Kyiv, so Novorissiya is still extant.
The simple fact is that Ukrainians aren't fighting for NATO, they're fighting to not he Russia. There is direct evidence of how Russia treated its holdings in Ukraine, with Mariupol being a wasteland and torture centers being set up in Kherson. One can readily calculate that while the west may be hypocrites, the Russians will not be kind masters as weirdly envisioned by anti-progressives.
Without having much of a stake in this discussion, I can confidently tell you that you can go to any bar in Europe or Turkey tonight and signal some affluence as a man and check for yourself if the rumours about Ukrainian women are correct.
But again, that was true of Ukrainians and Russians in every expensive bar in Dubai or Hong Kong for decades before this war. These are some of the top exporters of working girls. Some of the stories about 90s Moscow are also wild.
Prostitution or extreme hypergamy just seems to be more socially acceptable in these Slavic cultures than in others.
Yes of course. Syria and Afghanistan experienced devastation and migration outflows at a much bigger scale yet you don’t see many Syrian or Afghan prostitutes/gold diggers.
My point wasn’t that this situation didn’t exist before the war. It’s that, this situation exists! It got hyper turbo charged because of the war. It can’t be dismissed as silly propaganda
The evidence presented can be dismissed as silly propaganda. The original comment had a link to tweet with evidence that consisted of some claims and 4 photos presumably from Tinder. Same level of evidence would have been present before the war. Claims "go to any bar in Europe" are cheap.
At minimum, one would need statistics to prove it. (Recollections of experiences with/observing presumed hookers in MENA countries and engaging in hypotheses about cultural factors of mountain Slaves does not count as interrogating the evidence.) How many of Ukrainians in Europe are women? Apparently approx 4 million. How many relative to respective demographics stayed in Ukraine? Apparently there was 12 million women aged 14-54 in Ukraine in 2018. Assuming everyone of the 4 million were women from the 12 million, it is a Large fraction, but not all or a majority. More exact statistics would be needed, because I presume there are kids and grandmas included in the 4 million. How many of the women of relevant are single, and how many are engaging in low-grade prostitution, how many are engaging more chaste forms of dating? Evidence not easily found. How many of sex workers are voluntary versus coerced? Evidence not easily found.
edited to clarify: i am at zero level claiming my surfing of telegrams or field reports is in any way substantive evidence. please do not under any circumstance in any conversation or discussion here or outside say 'hey this pervo didn't see to many Ukie hookers around so they're all chaste damsels' or whatever.
Unedited text: I am, in all an explicit seriousness, appreciative of any sincere longitudinal or latitudinal 'study' proving that slavs - ukrainian or russian or whatever - are present in greater numbers to disrupt relationship or, more specific to my curiosity, sex worker markets.
Intuitively it makes perfect sense that we SHOULD see more hot single Ukrainians seeking comfort in the wallets of generous men within the new host countries they reside in, others have accurately noted that infidelity and hypergamy seem to be more present in Eastern Europeans sui generis.
BUT In my own explicit attempts to canvass the issue, I have observed zero uptick in Ukrainians in any of the markets I am aware of, including the ostensible hotbed of Dubai. I recognize that the physical distance means I'm not seeing refugees, but a quick gander at punter boards all don't see a surplus of Ukrainians at all.
If I am forced to drag this back to the culture war, where we boo Ukrainian men for being so stupid to die for NATO while their women shack up with lecherous exploitative Germans or Finns or whatever, I can confidently say I have NOT actually seen this in my depraved circles. Admittedly my own research for that is EXTREMELY low grade, but come on surely we would have at least a shitload of Polish or English forums complaining about Ukrainians stealing their blokes!
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Do you normally refuse to entertain any opinions based on your own experiences as long as someone did not go through the trouble of collecting or locating almost impossible to find data? Or is this an isolated demand for rigour you are applying to this specific subject?
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The syrian and afghan prostitutes/gold diggers don't exist because they get stoned to death by their family members for stepping outside without a veil. This exaggerations is only a mild one, any requests for muslim working girls is met with extreme deflection due to scarcity of supply (there is also the aforementioned cultural 'acceptance' of sex work extant in other cultures that 2rafa highlighted, which does play a contributing though not exhaustive part).
The exception is Southeast Asia. A man can do EXTREMELY well passing as Arab to the local muslimahs, who if anything get praise for managing to sleep with an Arab.
I fail to see how this goes against anything I have said.
It’s trivial to observe that due to cultural factors eastern Slavic women have a tendency to easily become gold diggers or prostitutes under certain adverse conditions, while for example Muslim women don’t have this tendency under even more extreme adverse conditions. Your male relatives being prepared to use violence to keep your sexual purity is one of these cultural factors.
This doesn’t distract from my point at all.
Slavs are sluts and while Muslims are chaste (zero value judgment to those appellations) seems somewhat reductive but I do wonder if the axis is 'purity vs starvation' as opposed to innate sexual proclivities in the differing cultures. This is an idle thought not worth expending too many brain cells on; at least within the confined of this topics original bearing which I have risked derailing by thoughtlessly discussing perversions.
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