domain:vinayprasadmdmph.substack.com
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
I preface this by saying that I'm happier not being on discord or knowing very much about it.
But isn't the whole thing driven by adults entering a child's life with ill intentions? Like isn't that the definition of grooming? I'd suspect that the request for nudes comes when the relationship is already underway.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
We're going to see a surge of neo-religious sex cults over the next ten to twenty years, as the friction between wanting sex and getting sex reaches levels possibly never before seen in human history, and both male and female adherents will be happy to turn their consent and loyalty over to some new Manson or Jim Jones in exchange for being given permission to just get laid.
It's interesting because women vulnerable to cults mostly do not want to 'just get laid', they want a committed affectionate relationship. Obviously, the psychologically healthy reaction is to enter committed, affectionate, sexual relationship with a man. But for cults that's dangerous because it reduces dependence on the leader.
Lewis2
11hr ago
But as far as these kids know, the person asking them to send nudes is roughly their age. They don’t know they’re talking to a 40-year-old. Plus, I would say that, in general, kids are desperate for the approval of the adults who are already in their lives, not of random adults whom they’ve never met.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
11hr ago
Kilts become A Thing in at least some blue tribe cities by 2050. Sneered at by minorities and the red tribe.
I'll do you one better: Kilts become a thing in the Blue Tribe by 2030, and by 2050 the kilts that came into fashion in 2040 are Red coded, the ones like that are "Youth Pastor Kilts" and show that you are hopelessly out of date in NYC or whatever. There's a type of skinny jean today that I would have been scared to wear in seventh grade for fear of being called a faggot, and that when I see them today it's a lame real estate agent or something.
My predictions:
We're going to see a surge of neo-religious sex cults over the next ten to twenty years, as the friction between wanting sex and getting sex reaches levels possibly never before seen in human history, and both male and female adherents will be happy to turn their consent and loyalty over to some new Manson or Jim Jones in exchange for being given permission to just get laid.
Major legislation on electric bikes is going to become necessary in the United States, either at the state level becoming standard across most states or at the federal level. I'm noticing a huge surge in biking in my area, as electrical assist bikes make it easier to get up hills. At the beach I started seeing a ton of electric bikes though, and a few electric adult tricycles. People are going to get themselves hurt, and it's going to result in legislation.
The USMNT will continue to protest that the NEXT world cup cycle is "our year" through at least two more times that the US hosts the world cup before ever making the final four.
Washington DC will go into a near full death spiral as a city over the next decade-plus. It will be 2040 before anyone considers living there again.
In imitation of Ronald Reagan, within five years the US will take part in a Panama or Grenada type tomato-can war to prove something or other. It won't go as planned, first as tragedy second as farce.
An NFL team will be accused of using AI for major coaching decisions this season. It will never be exactly clear the extent to which AI was used, and the results will ultimately be mixed.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
There are plenty of people who are no particular danger to children in their care despite making rather poor life decisions overall. Very few custody agreement violations present much danger to the child, even if at some level they need to be enforced.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
Have you ever seen a child before, much less interacted with one?
Yes? They're desperate for adult approval.
hydroacetylene
11hr ago
Czechoslovakia, and if you include them as western, the Mexican Empire and Yugoslavia.
bonsaii
11hr ago
If he was somehow born naturally, we wouldn't euthanize him for being incredibly boring.
But is there no difference to you between actively creating these beings vs letting them be if they happened to come to exist on their own?
If a standard AI is suffering, why did we give it the capacity to suffer?
I would submit the possibility that in order for a system to have the capacity for general intelligence, it must also have the capacity for suffering, boredom, desire, etc. We don't have to give it if it emerges on its own.
PropagandaOfTheDude
11hr ago
"In the moment", probably, but that's far from clinical.
ToaKraka
Dislikes you
11hr ago
Sunshine
11hr ago
It's also hard to overrule a judge and even harder to get rid of one. They aren't vulnerable to the normal ways of forcing public servants to follow instructions form above. Western democracies are designed to make it difficult for politicians to directly control the judiciary.
Corvos
11hr ago
And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.
Sunshine
12hr ago
As a Canadian, I would be in favor of this on the condition that you get your own shit under control before you start messing with ours. When I make a list of possible solutions to Canada's political dysfunctions, "Invasion by US military under Donald Trump" does not rank highly.
Corvos
12hr ago
My parents (admittedly over 60 now) can't reliably open a browser on a laptop. They certainly have no idea what a QR code is. The idea that parents will be able to find the parental controls, understand what they're doing, and set them independently is unlikely in many cases, so they have to trust their children. In ten years it may be quite different but right now I think that's still the reality and realistically Discord has to bear that in mind.
There's a reductio ad in either direction right?
On the one hand, replacing every American with a higher-IQ Chinese or Indian person might raise the GDP by 15%, but it's weird to say to say it would be good for "America."
On the other, admitting Jensen Huang to the country obviously benefits America, even if it dilutes the pool of Americans. 1/333000000 dilution, versus a roughly $500 estimated increase in GDP per capita.
Corvos
12hr ago
Has there been a non-Baltic Western state that dissolved in the last couple of centuries? I can't think of any offhand. Austria-Hungary was dissolved by force post WW1, as was Germany post WW2.
A good LLM swears up and down that "kang" meaning something like "presenting others' work as your own" existed entirely unrelated to and predating "we wuz kangz", in the Android ROM community. This seems very implausible.
AOKP (Android Open Kang Project) was a major project from 2011. This thread attests "kang" among Android ROM enthusiasts in 2010 and does not reflect knowledge of that type of humor. No etymology is solidly attributed anywhere (that XDA thread suggests MMO slang "gank", wiktionary claims (unsourced) an otherwise-lost username of a guy who stole stuff without attribution). 2010 feels too early to me for "we wuz kangs", but then I reflect on other things that were around at the time and am not so sure.
Can anyone speak on this?
odd_primes
12hr ago
Both are insane. The former perverts the intent of the legislative branch of government, and the latter is some form of bizarro judicial equivalent of jury nullification.
chooky
12hr ago
The numbers have always been somewhat imperfect but very much not politically gamed, imo. I mean, did Trump want the BLS for the past three months to have changed longstanding procedure in order to put out drastically worse jobs numbers reflecting the estimated impact of the DOGE cuts and other things? Many government agencies are much more wedded to procedure and neutrality rather than a private sector financial analyst who would prioritize being right, though it is worth noting that the Atlanta Fed moved reasonably quickly to correct for the impact of gold imports on GDPnow.
For the BLS, however, this is now somehat changed, and there will be less trust until a real person gets out in charge again and says the right things.
odd_primes
12hr ago
If the individual is allowed to be out in public unfettered he will have some non-zero contact with children. For example if he gets sent to do community service picking up trash in a public park, there likely will be children playing in the park at some point. The bigger issue is making sure that someone like that is not in a position of trust or authority over minors that they could leverage inappropriately. If they can't be trusted in public spaces at all, they should be incarcerated. Obviously this guy should have been deported though.
chooky
13hr ago
Forget ethics. This seems like a huge financial loss. With AI, there is at least the argument that the AI will be able to scale infinitely once trained. This does not seem true of the clone or whatever.
EdenicFaithful
Dark Wizard of Ravenclaw
13hr ago
So, what are you reading?
I'm still on Red Dynamite.
IGI-111
God was a dream of good government.
13hr ago
caché
Cachet.
Caché means hidden, cachet means sceal (hence approval, officiality, prestige)
GoofyGoose
13hr ago
None of these are meaningful in the way you mean. I am not that good at math, but I am good at mathematical model building and interpretation.
These are not meaningful because we can easily write different examples with different results, so the key question for, say, society is whether society satisfies another given property that is not the ones you mentioned.
Economics has models where agents who are part of the model and know or learn the model. Yet, self-fulfilling prophecies are not guaranteed or fully ruled out.
Economics would also have models that imply tradeoffs. Yet, in general not every improvement leads to a tradeoff because there are always dumb actions. Stop being dumb and you get an improvement without losing anything.
We can also come up with processes that generate large numbers from small and make that process loop or collapse or anything we want. The question is not whether such processes exist, but whether we can identify which kind better represents society, if any of them do.
I do think that some math is useful to recognize whether a kind of argument is plausible or ruled out. But most math is not even useful for that.
I mean, also as a Canadian - I’d definitely take “Invasion by US military under Donald Trump” over “Liberals import 3% of our population per year.”
YMMV.
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