domain:lesswrong.com
07mk
3hr ago
but it would be much less effective if ICE were acting in an extremely professional and regimented manner, they aren't.
Hard disagree. At best, it would be infinitesimally less effective, small enough that you'd need a magnifying glass to tell the difference. Of course, it's impossible to properly ascertain what an alternative universe would look like, but, based on the general reception that these official ICE-released videos got, I'd wager that the effect was net-neutral at worst in terms of Americans' perception of ICE.
yofuckreddit
3hr ago
I agree 100%, it'd be almost nonsensical as a highschooler
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
I don’t think that’s what mainstream dems think, especially in places like Chicago which are dominated by the black political machine. I think some of them are confused about the asylum seeker thing but most of them believe that being on US soil entitles a person to rights and that illegal immigration just isn’t such an important problem to violate those rights.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
They're not US citizens
The concern is if you have law enforcement doing wack crazy shit, what if they accidentally pick up a US citizen and because they're operating at a level of "wack and stupid" they get shipped off? We should demand more competency from the government.
FAFO, lawbreakers
Again, what if the government makes you a lawbreaker? This is such myopic thinking. These are terrible precedents. This is literally the definition of the "first they came for" quote but you're just super confident it'll only be the first step.
Perfect is the enemy of good
Sure, but then you can't complain when I call your guy a retard and his policies terrible. If you want to have low standards that's fine, but I get to point at them and call them terrible. Your standards suck.
I appreciate you sharing your thoughts. I am not very pro-immigration myself. I am mildly distressed I guess, but mainly because I feel kind of like I'm screaming into the void as a centrist.
This administration is retarded, and isn't even doing the thing they say they're doing, and it kind of feels like this (normally quite smart) community is content to clap like seals instead of going "wait why aren't they actually doing things that would solve immigration permanently, and instead going for maximum heat and chaos?"
I really think that many people feel this way and therefore really do not care what ICE does to illegals.
Polling shows trump getting steadily less popular on immigration all year. Down and to the right. So while you're right, that group is shrinking due to his shitty execution.
HermeneuticsOfVibes
3hr ago
I use the tools quite a bit, especially in the use case of architecting cloud infrastructure, where as you might imagine, every solution you are building has already been done by 100,000 other people before you.
In general there's something to be said for point three, but not how the speaker intended it. If an LLM is incredibly helpful and can eliminate 50+% of your work, most of your work is repetitive junk that can be automated. Just like traditional software in the 90's and 00's automated away a tremendous amount of human labor that amounted to manual data entry, LLMs are very good at automating tasks that are the next level above that.
What do I mean by the next level above manual data entry? Tasks that are performed by many, many people, in only slightly different ways, across many different organizations. Let's say you work in HR and have to compile a weekly email for exec leadership that serves as an analysis of discretionary expenditures, based on some grouping, where the data comes from some attached spreadsheet. This is an incredibly common task people are performing, with many extremely common sub patterns (i.e. huge spend by R&D this week on flights and accommodations, they are attending a conference and chose to file it as discretionary instead of getting training and travel pre-approved). Because there are only so many unique scenarios, LLM's are a good use case for automating this kind of work, even if it is a dynamic analysis task.
The reason engineers and scientists find less general utility from using LLMs is likely just because they aren't walking well trodden ground. Were I in one of these roles that benefit so highly, I personally wouldn't be bragging about how much of my workload is able to be automated.
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
‘Trump isn’t going after the problematic illegals’ is a reasoned criticism. The guys in a Home Depot parking lot are probably not people I want my kids hanging around with once they’re done with work(I mean, they’re roustabouts), but that doesn’t make them the worst people. The worst ones are outside of employment, making their money off of other illegals or crime.
Now farm and slaughterhouse workers are probably the least problematic ones, when native citizens have the choice between doing those jobs and jail they choose jail. Somebody has to pick the crops and slaughter the chickens and thats a very reasonable principled exception.
Totalitarianit
3hr ago
Go after our agricultural industry and significantly increase food prices? What political benefit does that have?
If you aren't targeting the employers of illegal immigrants, you aren't serious about immigration
Most in the Republican party don't actually care about getting rid of all illegal immigration. They care about progressives and democrats giving the entire planet a green light to migrate here.
Pause for a moment and try to disabuse yourself of the literalness of the argument you hold yourself to. Nobody who runs the country actually thinks they can get rid of all illegals and survive it politically, but if we can project an image that says "We will deport you if you come or stay here illegally." then the likelihood of people trying to come here illegally plummets. This is far more preferable than quickly creating or using a system that the left will then take and turn into an entry permission slip for millions of illegals, like they already have. If Dems and Republicans want to re-implement something like that, then ok, but it will fuck with the optics and people will flood the border, and the media will report on the humanitarian crisis, and Democrats will adopt policy to allow more people in than what was agreed to. Overall, you want to perfect or streamline something that is ripe for left wing overreach. We know this because we just got out of an admin that did it.
TeknOShEeP
3hr ago
Yes, but that is all far, far downstream of the media industrial complex's and the DNC's (but I repeat myself) decision to push the idea that immigration law doesnt matter and anyone who enforces it is a evil nazi. What options does ICE have? Attempt to arrest between 10-30 million illegals, give them multiple hearings, provide all legal care and shelter during said hearing period, while being fought tooth and claw by approximately half of the population? Lol, not a fucking chance.
ICE is doing the only thing it can do- demonstrate in a highly visible way that they will enforce the law, and the days of free-riding are over, might as well self-deport doe the thousand bucks and free plane ticket. If this offends the left, well, fuck it, they broke the system first.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
Well, "Bad Boys" is kinda hokey, but "Ride of the Valkyries" is serious and "Paint it Black" is in a minor key. So maybe you want no music at all, just ICE agents shouting and the sounds of the raids?
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
The second part does not appear to be true. Or rather, it is true that "most" people agree with it, but there's a significant number opposing it both rhetorically (including here) and physically who do not, and that should not be ignored.
This is my thesis. People want action on immigration, but hate how they see ICE doing it. ICE is being run poorly and the administration is fucking this up.
This is pretty much unproven. There's lots of stories, but most of them describe pretty ordinary law enforcement stuff (which I often object to, but applying such complaints only to ICE is not valid) and often use overwrought words like "kidnapping".
They've done enough dumb/weird/unpleasant looking things that it's safe to say they're not operating at a super high level of discipline or care.
Breaking a dude's leg and holding him in a hospital for 37 days with no charges under a fake name so he's harder to find isn't "ordinary law enforcement". Shipping people to prisons in different countries isn't ordinary either. Even if those people are illegal, it leaves a bad taste in their mouths, and eventually at this level of sloppy chaos, they will do something stupid and fucked up to an American citizen who isn't illegal (if they haven't already).
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
I think a majority of leftists believe that their official mission is illegitimate, and borders in general are basically unethical
Does anyone on this site think this? I meant like this argument in this thread.
Yes, in this very thread:
Good. ICE officers have, in my mind, about as much legitimacy as federal officials enforcing the Fugitive Slave Act and it is every red-blooded Americans moral duty to resist them.
ArjinFerman
Tinfoil Gigachad
3hr ago
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
ICE literally posted a montage of masked dudes blowing up doors to the pokemon theme song.
I'm not saying the media isn't a biased shitshow, it is, but it would be much less effective if ICE were acting in an extremely professional and regimented manner, they aren't.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
3hr ago
What if we amend "disappeared" to "breaking someone leg and unlawfully holding them in a hospital for 37 days without charging them and while making them hard to find for a month"
Then
-
We still don't know if it is true. We know he was held in a hospital and we know he was ordered released. That does not mean he was held unlawfully before the order, nor that he was hard to find for the relevant people (the ones who filed the habeas petition)
-
We still don't know if the leg breaking was accidental or even justified.
-
Most importantly, it lacks the gravity of "disappearing". Even if ICE was in the wrong, it falls somewhere between an ordinary fuck-up and some form of small-scale misconduct. If the cops decide they don't like you, break your leg, and hold you in jail for 37 days, you will eventually get over it. If they "disappear" you, you're never seen again.
It is inevitable that ICE will fuck up sometimes. It is unfortunately also inevitable that they will sometimes engage in misconduct, for which any officers who do should be (but probably will not be -- and that's a law enforcement thing in general, not specific to ICE) punished. That's a lot different than "disappearing" people, whether as a more serious form of misconduct or (as has been implied here) a matter of policy. Trying to swap those out mid-conversation is a ridiculous goalpost move.
TeknOShEeP
3hr ago
Its not just not a bad idea, its the only idea that will work. Self-deportations greatly outnumber ICE deportations, and have to do so for anything meaningful to be accomplished.
The legal system in America is simply unable to deal with millions of deportation hearings, you have to set examples pour encourager les autres.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
Cops manage just fine for centuries and they're front line. Also very unpopular in blue areas and yet aren't being murdered in their sleep.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
Ah
I mean to be honest people have been responding to me with somewhat obtuse responses and I note ZERO responses across any of my comments as to why enforcing immigration laws but explicitly ignoring farms and hotels doesn't undermine the whole project so it's not just him avoiding discussions he doesn't feel like having
pigeonburger
3hr ago
It doesn't look good man.
Would it not look good if it were not in the context of the media breathlessly describing them as stormtroopers for months? We're talking about counter-factual world we can't really observe here, but purely on its own, for me, masked guys blowing up doors to the Pokemon soundtrack doesn't really raise an eyebrow. It's not like they're committing atrocities, or even just filming themselves doing a bit of the ol' unnecessary police brutality and laughing about it, that'd be different.
I don't think there is a single manly man or cuckold in the story. The only way to win the game with Brett is not to play, but to go fishing instead.
There are more Bretts in today's society than ever before, and they have even more freedom and power. I know a dozen of them. That's what I mean about the relative level of transgression being lower than when the book was written.
KMC
3hr ago
You did the meme.
I voted for this, actually. Deport all foreigners, especially the legal ones, especially the unnaturalized paper citizens, especially the anchor babies. I do not care about their rights, I do not care about their welfare, I do not care where they go when they leave here, I care that they are gone. The longer it takes to accomplish this, and the more resistance encountered, the less I'm going to care about norms, or laws, or rights, or anything other than what I want accomplished.
This is called being a reactionary. The thing is, you can simply fix what I'm reacting to and I won't be a reactionary any more. Neat trick.
TeknOShEeP
3hr ago
Okay, and I'm saying its only "fuck the left" because the left has abandoned any pretense of rule of law and embraced Anarcho-Tyranny. The left could end the controversy tomorrow, if they just said "actually yes, lets enforce immigration law and stop selectively chosing which criminals are good and which are bad. Then we can work on comprehensive reform."
"Fuck ICE fascists!" Is not the own the left thinks its is.
fmac
Ask me about bike lanes
3hr ago
Sure but when the target audience is <50% of the people (and shrinking) in a democracy, your messaging strategy is kind of stupid
I'm so confused what your view on immigration is. "I'm fine with immigrants if they do shitty jobs"
So then you're fine with the status quo? What % of illegal immigrants are gang bangers?
More options
Context Copy link